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RussianFactor

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Pittsburgh Penguins
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Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2020 at 10:52 p.m.
Thread: Scenery Changed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gmgb</b></div><div>He's old and slow and it's only going to get worse. He won't have the same offensive players in NSH to help prop up those point totals. He's not worth $5.3M right now, especially with the flat cap. He certainly won't be worth anything close to that, as he gets older, and slower, and worse. Not to mention NSH already has Arvidsson who does what Hornqvist used to do in his prime, but better.

It's not hyperbole, it's just the harsh reality. I'm not trying to dump on Hornqvist - he's always been one of my favorites. With that contract, he's just not a positive asset anymore.</div></div>

He was rarely played with Crosby or Malkin this past season or in the top 6 so his totals were hardly the product of the better offensive players around him. He did that in a limited role doing what he always has. Crashing the net and mucking around. He's never been fast. Guy has had cement boots since before he came here. He doesn't need speed to score he just needs will and he still has that in spades. His age and 5.3M are why he can be had for a mid level pick. Because otherwise you have to pay through the nose to get what a guy like him provides. Arvy is amazing. Love the guy. But the Preds clearly need more sources of heart than just him. Both PIT and NSH need a changeup. This is just one way to do something like that for each team that won't require crazy asset expenditure.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 17, 2020 at 10:32 p.m.
Thread: Scenery Changed
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>arafay</b></div><div>All teams reject, with the exception of maybe Nashville</div></div>

BUF I could see. The fit is there but might need a pick to balance out due to Bjugstad's utility being further in the rearview mirror than Miller's. I would really love to hear the rationalizations on the others though. Because as things currently stand, McCann outproduced Roslovic in less games, White's contract is viewed as a gamble that didn't pay off and he's a player that might have earned that deal because of an elite winger that's no longer there. The potential exists for all these players involved. But to definitively declare anyone wins these deals is a bit strange. This whole exercise is one in which all these teams are kind of gambling on these players to play better for them than they did with their previous teams.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2020 at 4:16 p.m.
Thread: Crazy how this is definitely gonna happen for sure
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wadejos123</b></div><div>Saad as on pace for 30 goals this year and has already scored twice in the play in series. Know your facts before you say he doesn't score lol. Funny how you try to talk him down though so you can justify getting him for cheap. <strong>Since you don't seem to know much about saad</strong> I'll also tell you he's one of the best defensive forwards in the league. Would be a great add for any team. Not a problem getting a 1st for him 4th the TDL next year, or better yet just keep him</div></div>

Believe me I do lol. Buddy I'm a Pittsburgh resident and I follow the Penguins. Folks like me have been paying attention to him for a while. He's got elite hockey IQ and a sneakily good skating stride. He's the perfect compliment to a fellow cerebral player like Sid or Toews or a 3rd line requiring a steady hand and good defensive instincts. But there's a reason he was viewed as one of the second tier of potential trade deadline acquisitions after the likes of Hall, Zucker, Palmieri etc. He's extremely inconsistent in terms of finishing the multitude of chances he generates as a possession monster and as result he doesn't produce to the level of a 6M winger getting good QoT and minutes. And certainly not for long stretches of the season. He's a guy who consistently underperforms his xG. There's a little Jordan Staal in him in that respect. This isn't a huge knock but his reputation is that he's a streaky player making too much money. That's not particularly controversial or damning. Saying that doesn't mean I think he's a bum. Quite the opposite as I am, uhh, trading for him in this hypothetical scenario. CHI can certainly address the goaltending position elsewhere but if they go with MM because he's young but has the pedigree and crunch time experience of their core, this isn't a ridiculous trade in order to facilitate that. Parting with a couple mid range draft picks and a rental to address the goaltending situation for the next 5 years is certainly within the realm of possibility.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2020 at 2:42 p.m.
Thread: Crazy how this is definitely gonna happen for sure
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>Hornquist NTC stops the silliness about a trade to Ottawa. Buffalo doesn't want Johnson anymore than you do.</div></div>

Point well taken re: Hornqvist trade. Situation with moving him remains similar however. With a NTC to deal with you likely deal with playoff bubble teams and still aren't getting much back. That's true whether the receiving team wants him to be the spark for a lackluster playoff-bound group or the living embodiment of how to make it in the league for a young building team. He has a lot of value on the ice and even off it but the other factors (contract, age) drive his value down in trades regardless.

And of course BUF doesn't want JJ. No one does. That's why he's a cap dump attached to a good young cost-controlled C and draft pick who are only getting back expiring 3rd pair guys. If that's not enough, sure that can be debated. It essentially hinges on your valuation of Jared McCann. Mine is lower on him than most but I'm definitely in the minority. If BUF thinks they can get a 23 y/o guy to grow into 2C for 3M I think they do it.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2020 at 2:25 p.m.
Thread: Crazy how this is definitely gonna happen for sure
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ecupirate07 </b></div><div>I do enjoy people wanting to acquire someone because of their skills but then saying their team is doing the other team a favor by taking them. Staal is a much better shutdown guy than Simon. Canes arent trying and arent going to try to move Staal. He is the Captain, the most sound center (i didnt say scorer) on the team, although Rod is starting to warm up to Trocheck, and no one wants to play against him.

What do I mean by doing Pitt a cap favor? I.e. retaining cap hits for a player that you covet.</div></div>

I don't think PIT is doing CAR a favor, I think they're engaging in a mutually beneficial trade that CAR wins only from a pure value standpoint. Which is why its strange that you're harping on the flat cap aspect. That's precisely why CAR wins here. They gain 3M in cap space from this move and get a very good young roster player and a prospect in the process. I don't understand how Staal has to be kept at all costs with Trocheck at 2C and Geekie likely ready for 3C. This is actually the perfect time to move on from Staal for CAR and the perfect time for PIT to acquire him. The cost is cheaper because of the danger of his age, contract, and most recent offensive output which is why it works for PIT. Pointing out the factors bringing down the value of a player I think would be effective for PIT is not being contradictory. Value is not necessarily = to effectiveness. Which is why you'll see very few people arguing that Parise or Suter aren't effective players. But you'll also find that no one is lining up to take on those contracts either.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2020 at 1:59 p.m.
Thread: Crazy how this is definitely gonna happen for sure
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ecupirate07 </b></div><div>Staal will remain a Cane unless someone pries him from Brind'Amour's hands.

with flat cap years, competitors arent going to give Pittsburgh cap help.</div></div>

PIT is giving the Canes cap help here. Not sure what you mean there. If it's a value question, Simon and Staal are similar players in that their underlying numbers are fantastic but they don't score nearly as much as they should. However, Staal is paid way way more than Simon will command (likely 2M at most) and is far older. Dispense with sentimental attachment and CAR wins pretty big here. They get a pretty good defensive C/W prospect in the Alex Steen mold to boot for a bit of retention, which is totally fair. I'm not sure a single other team is taking Staal on without it. You're getting value and cap relief for an aging expensive player who just put up 27 points last year. I like JStaal too but you gotta be reasonable in your assessment of him. He has major warts.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 9, 2020 at 1:51 p.m.
Thread: Crazy how this is definitely gonna happen for sure
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Sabres923</b></div><div>Yeah Buffalo isn’t doing that.</div></div>

Depends on their assessment of where they are at. I think they're in the "we gotta make the playoffs but we're not necessarily contenders" stage. If that's the case, a ****ty 3rd pair D man is not that big of a deal if you get assets that will help you more in 2 years or so. They need cheap young center to push Johansson to his proper role on LW. I think McCann would be perfect for that but your mileage may vary there.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>jgimp69</b></div><div>I can definitely see Bettman gifting either Pittsburgh or NYR the 1OA.</div></div>

It is a lot of fun that we have ready made conspiracies for just about any of the play-in losers getting 1OA. NYR, PIT, EDM, TOR winning will all make the hockey world go full Alex Jones. Gotta love it

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ragsandbluesfan</b></div><div>Idk about all those trades but the lines should be

Guentzel crosby saad
Zucker malkin rust
Laf staal smith
Zar blue tanev</div></div>

Saad very well could be an amazing partner with Sid but idk about Zucker-Malkin-Rust. Seemed ineffective this postseason.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Wadejos123</b></div><div>Wow the hawks decline. It's funny how you say one of the teams issues is having a mediocre starting goalie, then you trade him for a top 6 forwards, a 3rd, 6th, and make the hawks take a cap dump. You're contradicting yourself. Saad is worth a 1st all day long. Probably could get a B level prospect back as well. You aren't getting him, 2 picks, and making us take a cap dump for a "mediocre" goalie. Just about every hawks fan is gonna jump down your throat when they see this and pens fans will come back saying he's worth 2 1st's cuz he won 2 cups (so did saad by the way)</div></div>

Me saying our goaltending was mediocre is technically not the same as me saying MM is mediocre, but FWIW I do hold that opinion. But that's just the thing, that is MY assessment of him. Not the leagues. He's up and down like just about any goalie but his "up" play is winning two Stanley Cups. Is he truly that player? IDK. But that why he isn't going for a 1st. There's doubt. Which is why he's recouping a couple of mid round picks and a rental. As for Saad, I find your valuation of him pretty crazy. He's a fancy stats darling but good luck finding someone to pay a 1st for a rental paid too much who doesn't score.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jfstompers</b></div><div>Buffalo isn't doing that. If they get laf the forward group should be good enough without having to remake the entire 3rd line. Get bonino back cheap from Nashville and you're fine. Concentrate on the blue line for sure.</div></div>

I actually agree that a shakeup is less needed than most fellow Pens fans would indicate but if PIT does wanna get crazy I think this is a good way to go for it. I worry we'll throw away the baby with the bathwater in order to change for the sake of change. Giving the 3L and 3rd pair a new look seems like a good middleground to blowing **** up to me.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 6, 2020 at 6:51 p.m.
Thread: Laffy Luck
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div><strong>McCann wouldn't push out Kempe or Vilardi on the second line and it's doubtful he'd be an improvement on Moore or Lizotte on the third line</strong>. Meanwhile, Johnson would eat nachos in the pressbox watching Anderson, Bjornfot, Clague and an anticipated free agent playing LD. His value is minus, so this trade wouldn't be a good one for Los Angeles even if you added in your 2020 second, which you don't have.</div></div>

McCann outscored every single one of those players mentioned. Now, Kempe is a decent player and Vilardi is a good prospect so I won't argue against those two too much but suggesting all those players mentioned are definitely better options than McCann is silly. And that he wouldn't be a better option on the 3rd line or Trevor Moore (?!) is ridiculous.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 6, 2020 at 6:31 p.m.
Thread: Laffy Luck
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KakkoForMauriceRichardAward</b></div><div>LA laughs</div></div>

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bf3351</b></div><div>Kings decline.</div></div>

good 3rd pairing D man for a good 2L/3L Center/Winger and bad 3rd pairing D man doesn't seem that crazy to me. LA can temporarily shield one of their many young Cs with McCann and move him to wing when they are ready. Adds to their speed factor they've been pivoting to. Johnson is bad but drags down the value of a cheap young C that has looked fine playing as high as 2C due to injuries, allowing LA to acquire him for just a 3rd pairing D man. JJ on a 3rd pair to mentor one their young RHD seems like something many GMs would be fine with if it means you can get a young cheap fast C.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 6, 2020 at 7:26 p.m.
Thread: My Custom Rooster
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>keep_ups12</b></div><div>Lol if that was the price of Jokiharju he would have been a leaf</div></div>

In terms of value: Jared McCann has at times played 2C for PIT due to injuries without looking out of place. He's spent time in the top 6 quite often even when injuries haven't demanded it. In BUF he instantly contends and likely wins the battle for 2C with the much older, expensive, and (IMO) worse player in Marcus Johansson. Bjugstad is overpaid but he's a big C/RW who's been effective in the past when healthy and BUF could use more guys contending for both of those positions (C and RW). Could easily see him slotting in nicely as their 3C and pushing MoJo to his more natural LW position. I like Joker as a D man which is why I trade for him here, but the guy is getting pushed down the lineup by Rasmus Ristolainen, Colin Miller, and Brandon Montour. To me his value seems lower than your estimation.

I can't speak to the Toronto aspect of your statement but since I never mentioned them and they aren't involved here at all I think we can leave that part unaddressed.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan. 3, 2020 at 7:24 p.m.
Thread: Back Walls Deep
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AFOX10900</b></div><div>PIT wins all the trades running away, Addison alone isn't enough for Kase alone, much less JJ's negative value, and Guhle, Ehlers just isn't getting moved by WPG this year, he's been one of if not their best forwards this year (THIS YEAR != Best, obviously Scheif is better)</div></div>

I like Kase too (why I'm so convinced PIT should trade for him) but I really don't know what kind of prospect you think Kase can get back if Addison isn't enough. Addison is a high quality RHD prospect (a key piece for any rebuilding team) and Kase has warts. His injury history has been talked about at length by many so there's little need to belabor the point. If you're a rebuilding team with a need for RHD.... not many teams are giving those up easy, if at all.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ledge_And_Dairy</b></div><div>Ehlers is the kind of guy who seems right for every system; boat load of talent, 2-way mentality (I'm surprised he doesnt play PK), long term reasonable contract. He's one of the hardest players value wise to pin down as he is similar to Hossa in his prime. However what you are offering is not enough, especially since Schults is a pending UFA</div></div>

As for the Ehlers deal, do you really think WPG wouldn't be signing Schultz should they acquire him? They have the need and the cap space. They end up with a #3 RHD and a good defensive C/RW who fits their style of play as well as first and second round picks for good measure. Ehlers is a good player and it's understandable if WPG doesn't want to move him but they have a surplus of wing talent and holes in other areas of their roster.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 18, 2019 at 9:38 p.m.
Thread: Inshallah
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>AFOX10900</b></div><div>Please make the FLA and ANA trades happen lmao, Kase is one of ANA's best forwards, and Weegar has been very very close to Ekgood for FLA's best d man this year (and was also p good last year)</div></div>

I love Kase and some Pens fans might chastise me for adding another injury prone player to an already insanely cursed team but I just think he'd pop off for us. The numbers and skill are there but it's an admittedly big risk.

Weegar is a weird one because his underlying numbers are great but he has no pedigree and kind of came out of nowhere so who knows how we should rate this very small sample size for him. Galchenyuk honestly seems like a good fit for FLA but not sure how much they value this season and a half or so of Weegar they've seen.
Forum: Armchair-GMDec. 9, 2019 at 4:46 p.m.
Thread: this team is Real and its my friend
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SevenLeg</b></div><div>The first two trades are fair but I doubt the last would work</div></div>

The last two trades are tougher sells but a bit more can be added from PIT's side in the form of picks or one of our goalies if need be.

Trade 3 - Schultz is a good #3 (and passable #2 if necessary) offensive RHD which is a premium asset in the NHL. VGK have somewhat of a surplus of top 4 LHD but don't have too many RHD. Hague is a good prospect but he's also a LHD and a rookie. VGK gets some balance and a guy that is ready right now (as opposed to down the line) to help them push for a Cup while still having a fairly young D corps locked in with Schmidt, Theodore, McNabb. They get Schultz who's still on the right side of 30 as a rental for the Cup run and of course the chance to sign him and even out their pairs going forward if he meshes. Which he absolutely will, with their uptempo style and identity as a team of former castoffs. Schultz used to be one of those so he should fit right in with their Isle of misfit toys culture.

Trade 4 - BUF has the opposite problem. Too many RHD and potentially looking to sell one of the few defensive defenseman LHD they do have in Scandella because his contract is expiring. Colin Miller is a good player in the right circumstances but those circumstances don't appear to be there for him in BUF. Add in the fact that he's locked up at 3.8 for several more years makes him a prime candidate for a "bad contract for bad contract" trade. Jack Johnson can function as BUF's Scandella replacement (similar shutdown D reputations) and there's familiarity there for GM Jason Botterill. IIRC Friedman has alluded to rumors that BUF and PIT are talking. However, you're right that even with C. Miller's value being low JJ's is bad enough to require more added value than a 5th from PIT's side. That 5th really should've been a 2nd. I was being stingy because I know how good this draft is supposed to be.
Forum: Armchair-GMAug. 2, 2017 at 1:43 p.m.