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SakuThornton

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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 20, 2022 at 10:32 p.m.
Thread: SELL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>UBS_ARENA</b></div><div>How does moving Koskinen cost a 2nd. Moving ladd who had 2 years at 5.5 cost 2 2nds so Koskinen who has post of a year left at 4.5 isn't going top cost a 2nd. Max it takes is a 3rd. Varlamov hasn't been the greatest this year and is also 34 years old already, that's gonna count against him. There's a reason a 1st and Koskinen for Varlamov has been the going rate on CF, because that's fair value.</div></div>

1. Ladd cost two 2nds and a 3rd to move
2. Anyone with an ounce of knowledge about the NHL knows that cap space goes at a premium during the actual season and especially leading up to the deadline. See: Foligno, Nick. Savard, David. (both middlemen teams got paid a 4th for retaining between $1M and $1.35M, which clearly indicates that $4.5M would cost at least a 2nd round pick to clear
3. "There's a reason a 1st and Koskinen for Varlamov has been the going rate on CF, because that's fair value." Lol
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 20, 2022 at 10:30 p.m.
Thread: SELL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Timmah007</b></div><div>Funny you think there is price attached to moving kosk. Let’s pretend oilers would be interested how else could the trade go threw? Thinking Edmonton will pay extra to move an expiring contract will just result in the islanders being stuck with what they have. Why would islanders want to move varlamov? Remove cap for this offseason right? Maybe that’s similar to why oilers might rather kosk he provides that varlamov makes things tighter not to mention that second year is very complicated for Edmonton with having smith under contract and skinner not being able to be sent down. Think what want about smith I can guarantee you the oilers organization thinks very highly of him and value his leadership and would still consider him the starter.</div></div>

Well...this comment only took a few hours to age extremely poorly lmfao

In the end it's really Edmonton and McDavid's loss if they want to try and roll with two ****ty goalies as usual. NYI loses absolutely nothing by holding onto Koskinen until next season, while Edmonton...well, they're just good at losing ;)

The stupidity here is thinking that Koskinen can be moved for free as you stated. This makes zero sense for two reasons:
1) For non-playoff teams, he's a soon-to-be 34 year-old goaltender signed at $4.5M with a save percentage below .900 the last two seasons and on an expiring contract
2) For playoff teams: he's a soon-to-be 34 year-old goaltender signed at $4.5M with a save percentage below .900 the last two seasons and on an expiring contract
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 20, 2022 at 5:02 p.m.
Thread: SELL
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Timmah007</b></div><div>Funny you think there is price attached to moving kosk. Let’s pretend oilers would be interested how else could the trade go threw? Thinking Edmonton will pay extra to move an expiring contract will just result in the islanders being stuck with what they have. Why would islanders want to move varlamov? Remove cap for this offseason right? Maybe that’s similar to why oilers might rather kosk he provides that varlamov makes things tighter not to mention that second year is very complicated for Edmonton with having smith under contract and skinner not being able to be sent down. Think what want about smith I can guarantee you the oilers organization thinks very highly of him and value his leadership and would still consider him the starter.</div></div>

This. All of this. Is the reason why the Oilers fail. Year after year. So...you actually think Mikko Koskinen has trade value and won't cost anything to clear? LOLOL
The Islanders could do much worse than to be 'stuck' with Varlamov and Sorokin as their two goaltenders through next season, but they can also cash in on Varlamov and roll with Sorokin instead (which is the smart thing to do here).
It's laughable that you are trying to compare Varlamov (a legitimate starting goaltender) and Koskinen (an overpaid, barely backup quality goalie).
You can 'think highly of Smith and call him a starter' all you want, it won't make it true. The Oilers are nearing the end of their rope and any lack of significant playoff success this season will be an utter failure.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 20, 2022 at 4:57 p.m.
Thread: relocation baby
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>Dude... Kosko's salary for the WHOLE SEASON is 4.5M. Both Edmonton and Arizona have now played 49 games, or right about 60% of the season. That leaves 40% of his salary left to pay, or 1.8M. So it's actually less than 2M that Arizona would be covering if he was traded over today. And every game that goes by with him still in Edmonton drops that number by almost $55K. If the trade doesn't happen until the deadline, that would be 13 more games Edmonton plays, meaning the salary for Arizona to cover would be down to 1M and change. In other words, nowhere near a 2nd.

Besides, Stevie Y fleeced the crap out of them with that deal. Do not expect every retention deal to go this way. If you want to go to trade comparables, the usual going rate is for 7M retained to garner about a 1st. So 4.5M ain;t no 2nd, and 1M and change sure as hell ain't remotely close to a 2nd.

As for Kessel, keep this in mind: none of this production talk means anything. NO ONE in the NHL is willing to pay as much as a 3rd for him half-retained at this time. Arizona tried. Even if it "picks up" (don't hold your breath), nobody is paying a 1st for him.</div></div>

I'm well aware of how the cap works in terms of games remaining, it still doesn't change the fact that two teams were each paid a 4th AT THE DEADLINE last year to retain $1-$1.35M on an annual basis, while Koskinen will require wiping $4.5M on an annual basis.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 20, 2022 at 4:15 p.m.
Thread: relocation baby
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mokumboi</b></div><div>1- Uhh no. A team would need to eat 5-6M to get back a 2nd. This deal requires eating about 2M. It's not even close.

2- From the Athletic. Corey Pronman's "Who says no?" column last week. And I quote:

"15. Penguins get Phil Kessel (ARI retains 50 percent). Coyotes get Alex Nylander and a 2023 second-round pick. — Shawn O.

Kessel has been rumored in trades pretty much since the season began. He’s putting up reasonable numbers for Arizona but the question is how much of a market will there be for the 34-year-old?

<strong>Exec: Penguins say no, almost zero percent chance you get a second-round pick for Phil Kessel. The Coyotes have offered him around for a third-round pick while retaining 50 percent and haven’t gotten a buyer yet.</strong>"</div></div>

Koskinen is signed at $4.5M, not $2M. This helps Edm clear space to add a goalie separately through another trade. Last season, Detroit picked up a 4th round pick for eating just over $1M on David Savard's contract. Nick Foligno netted the Sharks a 4th for around $1.35M in retention as well.

Taking back $4.5M in cap in full is most definitely worth at LEAST a 2nd round pick at the deadline (AKA Lavoie). As for Kessel's value at 50% retention, keep this in mind: Kessel's production at 5v5 has remained steady despite playing for an extremely poor Coyotes team. (1.88 PTS per 60, even ahead of J.T. Miller, the prize of the trade deadline). If that's the case for his trade value at the moment, I'd definitely expect that to pick up closer to the deadline
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 19, 2022 at 11:15 a.m.
Thread: Best goalie in franchise history
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CMcAvoy73</b></div><div>Awwww cute. You’re doing the thing where you realized you’re wrong, so you’re going to lash out. Tuukka is second or third all time in save percentage. I said he’s the best goaltender in bruins history. That’s not a stretch pal. Let’s get back over to the other thread, or you can just slink away. Either one. You don’t have a leg to stand on, and are really grasping at straws.</div></div>

Save percentage says nothing about a goaltender's ability actually. It's really for pure boxscore stat simpletons who can't seem to take into account any other factors that would affect a goaltender's play. You see: there are 3 'danger areas' when it comes to shots: low-danger, medium-danger, and high-danger. The fact that Rask's stats when taking into account expected goals are so much worse than his standard stats pretty much tell one thing here: Boston insulated him over his entire career for high-danger scoring chances and kept the majority of shots to medium or low-danger zones.

Among goaltenders with 5000+ minutes since 07-08, Rask is 4th in standard save percentage, but drops all the way to 20th in goals saved above expected. Ouch