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SaskCanesFan

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Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 21, 2021 at 4:55 p.m.
Thread: Makar
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CMcAvoy73</b></div><div>Makar is indeed a 10.2C, so 5 years doesn’t buy out any UFA years. Aho was not, so 5 years at least bought out one UFA year. I think Makar is in an awkward spot that frequently happens with 10.2C guys. Maybe they got he McAvoy route, and give him a 3 year deal, but I do think max term is a 10 million + deal. There jsut really aren’t many Norris candidates coming off an entry deal to compare him to.</div></div>

Yeah on max term I could see a $10 million+ AAV the more I look at it. But I think the important thing for Colorado in that case is the term, they're either gonna want a short bridge like McAvoy, or else 7+ years. I don't think there's any reason for the Avs to be wanting a 5 year term.

But if he's 10.2C he can't sign an offer sheet anyways so I guess this whole thing is pointless?
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 21, 2021 at 1:50 p.m.
Thread: Makar
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CMcAvoy73</b></div><div>There isn’t a ton of precedent for d men stepping into the league and being Norris caliber either. The last one that really sticks out is Doughty, who signed 7x7 when teh cap was 59.4 million. That’s 11.7% of the cap. Today’s dollars thats a smidge under 10. But wouldn’t you say we’ve seen a big of a re-set when it comes to the true superstars coming off their entry deals? McDavid got 12.5, Matthews got 11.6 for five years, and reportedly was asking for 13.8 on any 8 year deal. Marner for just under 11 for 6. Eichel got 10 right off his entry without really proving all that much. Rantanen got 9.25 without much of a fight. Chabot had a solid couple weeks and they threw 8x8 at him.

Think about that one. On the one hand, you’ve got Thomas Chabot. 8x8. You’re saying you think Makar lands at around 8-9 for a 7-8 year deal? Makar isn’t a smidge better than Chabot. He’s in a different category.</div></div>

I don't really disagree on the AAV, the more I look you might be right. I personally don't think Makar ends up quite with 8 figures, but you're right there has been a reset with young stars deals, and one of the contracts you mentioned was Rantanen so Colorado has already shown to be a part of the new market. The critical thing is the term. Most of those deals you mention were for max term, and at the very least all of them were buying multiple UFA years. The only slight exceptions were the Toronto deals - Matthews only has a single UFA year, but Marner again has two - and they've been universally panned instead of followed by other teams since. No team has signed a deal like that for RFA years only. I had 6 years in on the original proposal here, but with a little more looking I believe its actually a 5 year deal that would take Makar straight to UFA without buying any of those years, so I should edit that. There's no chance Colorado wants a 5 year term. Like the Canes with Aho, they'd undoubtedly match and move on, but they won't be high fiving about getting the minimum number of team controlled years possible under the CBA. That would sting a bit.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 21, 2021 at 12:59 p.m.
Thread: Makar
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CMcAvoy73</b></div><div>I hope you don’t place that bet with someone that will take your money. It’s a losing ticket.</div></div>

Sure thing, since there's so much precedent there. After all, the list of young D coming off ELC to sign a minimum year to go directly to UFA contract for $10 million includes..... Uh lets see, nobody? Yeah, nobody.

And that was even when the cap was rising instead of flat. But you think that's exactly what Colorado will be high fiving and rushing to do? If they're gonna agree to pay that kind of salary I guarantee they'll be buying out UFA years, teams don't willingly walk their young stars straight to UFA. No different than the Aho offer sheet a couple years ago, the Canes matched and were fine with the AAV. But there was a zero% chance they would have negotiated that contract on their own, they were pushing hard for 7-8 years of term.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 19, 2021 at 2:34 p.m.
Thread: Makar
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CMcAvoy73</b></div><div>This falls into the category of doing Colorado a favor. They’re high fiving if he signs this deal. Try 7x15 if you want a chance of acquiring the player.

Sign and trades aren’t really a thing.</div></div>

You really think $10 million for 5-6 years is a contract that the Avs would be thrilled about? No way, I don't see it. They'd 99% match, sure, but if they are doing their own contract I'd pretty much guarantee lower AAV and more term.

And yes, I know sign and trades aren't really a thing. But the Canes gave Hamilton's camp permission to speak with other teams, and I think that was part of the motivation. Either Hamilton doesn't like the offers out there and comes back to the Canes with a lower $ mark, or else someone else agrees to a contract with him and gives up more in a trade to make it happen.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 19, 2021 at 2:30 p.m.
Thread: Makar
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheThunder</b></div><div>i'm guessing with him having permission to talk to others he worked this deal out with winn but Carolina has to do it for the 8 years</div></div>

Exactly this. And I know sign and trades aren't really a thing, but with Hamilton being given permission by the Canes to talk to other teams it opens up the possibility. They don't do most things in the conventional way.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>vikhodush</b></div><div>Cool concept and Makar is one of my fav players outside of Carolina but can’t imagine there’s an offer sheet the Avs don’t match. Would make their life hell but they’d maneuver whatever they have to do to fit it in IMO.</div></div>

I think you're right, it'd piss off Sakic and make things tougher for the Avs, but they'd likely move things around and match without too much thought. I just wanted to see what the concept would look like from the Canes side if for whatever reason Colorado couldn't/wouldn't do it. I thought it might be too big of a contract that would hurt the Canes elsewhere, but it kinda works out nicely.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 18, 2021 at 7:38 p.m.
Thread: Analytics go brrrr
I mean, if you want to argue that Eichel is worth the premium over Aho, go for it. Not sure I agree with you, but I can see the argument. Though it seems like you're leaning heavily on isolated impact as if its 100% be all end all foolproof stat. That seems to be an issue with a lot of people who lean heavily into advanced stats, picking and choosing one area and ignoring everything else. I'm not a pure eye test guy by any means, but hockey is hard to track and advanced stats are still in the early stages. If you want a competing number, I can pull up GSVA from Dom's Athletic model. I don't know how often he published updated numbers, so I'll go off his season previews. He's got Eichel and Aho even at 3.1 each. Interestingly he also has Teravainen at 2.8 vs Tatar at 2.2. Is his model perfect? Nope. But neither are your isolated numbers, so pretending that Eichel for Aho and Tatar for Teravainen conclusively improves the team seems a bit overconfident in one stat.
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 20, 2019 at 12:53 p.m.
Thread: Next Year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Random2152</b></div><div>Looking at nylander's points ignores his play. He was hands down the best leaf for a few months there. He has been fantastic, Pesce for Nylander would be hall for Larsson 2.0. kapanen is the real deal, and that is dubas'asking price for him. If you don't want to pay up that's fine, but that's the costs.

And offersheet? You don't really think Dundon will go to economic war with MLSE do you? He is eccentric, not stupid.</div></div>

Hall for Larsson 2.0? I mean, if you want to ignore the fact that Pesce is much better than Larsson while Nylander is nowhere near as good as Hall. Its a laughable comparison.

And there's no worry about "war" with MLSE considering they can barely afford to sign their own players, what are they gonna do to hurt the Canes?