Analytics go brrrr

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Svechnikov, Andrei	8	$8,250,000
Nedeljkovic, Alex	3	$3,250,000
Lajoie, Maxime	2	$850,000
Geekie, Morgan	2	$850,000
Reinhart, Sam	6	$6,850,000

UFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Hamilton, Dougie	7	$8,750,000
Reimer, James	2	$1,500,000
Tatar, Tomas	4	$5,250,000
Miller, Kevan	2	$1,000,000
Nemeth, Patrik	2	$3,000,000
Leivo, Josh	2	$1,350,000
Nash, Riley	2	$1,350,000
Comeau, Blake	2	$1,350,000

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$81,500,000	$80,607,500	$0	$1,037,500	$892,500

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Svechnikov, Andrei $8,250,000$8,250,000 LW, RW UFA - 8	Eichel, Jack $10,000,000$10,000,000 C UFA - 5	Jarvis, Seth $894,167$894,167 ($500,000$500K) RW RFA - 3
Tatar, Tomas $5,250,000$5,250,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Trocheck, Vincent $4,750,000$4,750,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Necas, Martin $863,333$863,333 ($537,500$538K) RW RFA - 1
Niederreiter, Nino $5,250,000$5,250,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Staal, Jordan $6,000,000$6,000,000 C, LW NMC UFA - 2	Leivo, Josh $1,350,000$1,350,000 RW, LW UFA - 1
Comeau, Blake $1,350,000$1,350,000 RW, LW UFA - 1	Nash, Riley $1,350,000$1,350,000 C, RW UFA - 1	Fast, Jesper $2,000,000$2,000,000 RW UFA - 2
Lorentz, Steven $725,000$725,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 1	Geekie, Morgan $850,000$850,000 C, RW RFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Slavin, Jaccob $5,300,000$5,300,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 4	Hamilton, Dougie $8,750,000$8,750,000 RD UFA - 7
Nemeth, Patrik $3,000,000$3,000,000 LD UFA - 3	Pesce, Brett $4,025,000$4,025,000 RD UFA - 3
Gardiner, Jake $4,050,000$4,050,000 LD M-NTC UFA - 2	Miller, Kevan $1,000,000$1,000,000 RD UFA	Nedeljkovic, Alex $3,250,000$3,250,000 G UFA - 2
Lajoie, Maxime $850,000$850,000 LD RFA - 1		Reimer, James $1,500,000$1,500,000 G UFA - 2

Jun. 18, 2021 at 6:22 a.m.

#1

DougieGilmour

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Buffalo would take that and laugh all the way

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Jun. 18, 2021 at 6:59 a.m.

#2

MelonVK

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Quoting: DougieGilmour

Buffalo would take that and laugh all the way

Laugh all the way to downgrading both at C and W. Isolated numbers has Aho as barely above average but just being handed opportunity, while Eichel dominates opposition. Teräväinen v Reinhart is closer.

But yeah, that's why I created this trade - I think it's pretty enticing for the Sabres. But in reality, the Canes improved heavily after the arrivals of Dougie, Svechnikov and Niederreiter. Aho and TT has much less to do with their recent success.

Jun. 18, 2021 at 7:10 a.m.

#3

littlejerryseinfeld

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Jun. 18, 2021 at 7:11 a.m.

#4

DougieGilmour

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Quoting: MelonVK

Laugh all the way to downgrading both at C and W. Isolated numbers has Aho as barely above average but just being handed opportunity, while Eichel dominates opposition. Teräväinen v Reinhart is closer.

But yeah, that's why I created this trade - I think it's pretty enticing for the Sabres. But in reality, the Canes improved heavily after the arrivals of Dougie, Svechnikov and Niederreiter. Aho and TT has much less to do with their recent success.

Aho is one of the best centres in the league. He’s definitely better than Eichel right now. TT and Reinhart is even worse for Carolina. Dougie isn’t staying there

Jun. 18, 2021 at 7:19 a.m.

#5

MelonVK

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Quoting: DougieGilmour

Aho is one of the best centres in the league. He’s definitely better than Eichel right now. TT and Reinhart is even worse for Carolina. Dougie isn’t staying there

You're not saying why... Is it because Carolina is more successful? Because I'll argue they'll be more successful with Eichel than Aho.
Is it because of points or something? Because the entire Carolina team provides great support for Aho, he gets amazing opportunities, he plays with one of the sneaky best wingers in the league in Svechnikov etc. Eichels isolated numbers blow Ahos out of the water. Game planning vs the Sabres is all about Eichel while Aho is on one of three good lines for the Canes.

Do you think all good teams consist of only good players, and all bad teams of bad players only or something?

I don't know why you're talkinag about Dougie leaving when I only tried to help you track the success of the Canes. I'm saying Dougie was one of three players to really elevate them into new territory. Aho didn't do that.

Jun. 18, 2021 at 8:14 a.m.

#6

spockrock

Joined: Aug. 2020

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This is ridiculous.

The point of CAR trading for Eichel would be to have Aho play behind him.

You also have them trading one of their best value contracts in Teravainen for an RFA they end up trading away for scraps, and they replace Reinhart/Teravainen with Tatar????

Congratulations, you’ve made a playoff team significantly worse.

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Jun. 18, 2021 at 8:51 a.m.

#7

ecupirate07

Joined: Jun. 2020

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Wow great job at making us worse

Jun. 18, 2021 at 9:13 a.m.

#8

sabres89

Joined: Feb. 2017

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This went exactly as i expected.

Jun. 18, 2021 at 9:39 a.m.

#9

Canes2028

Joined: Feb. 2021

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Quoting: MelonVK

Laugh all the way to downgrading both at C and W. Isolated numbers has Aho as barely above average but just being handed opportunity, while Eichel dominates opposition. Teräväinen v Reinhart is closer.

But yeah, that's why I created this trade - I think it's pretty enticing for the Sabres. But in reality, the Canes improved heavily after the arrivals of Dougie, Svechnikov and Niederreiter. Aho and TT has much less to do with their recent success.

Aho switching from winger to 1C has significantly more to do with the Canes recent success than you give it credit for.

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Jun. 18, 2021 at 9:47 a.m.

#10

MelonVK

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Quoting: Canes2028

Aho switching from winger to 1C has significantly more to do with the Canes recent success than you give it credit for.

If anything because it bumped Svechnikov up the lineup.

Quoting: spockrock

This is ridiculous.

The point of CAR trading for Eichel would be to have Aho play behind him.

You also have them trading one of their best value contracts in Teravainen for an RFA they end up trading away for scraps, and they replace Reinhart/Teravainen with Tatar????

Congratulations, you’ve made a playoff team significantly worse.

Quoting: ecupirate07

Wow great job at making us worse

Can you explain to me then why Aho's isolated numbers are so unimpressive? Teräväinen and Aho are given some pretty good opportunities, and they're good power players, but that's also less valuable than good 5on5 players. It's not that either are bad, it's that Eichel is one of the best players in the league and neither Aho or Teräväinen come close to that.

Can anyone just give me a number, or a reason, anything as to *why*? Instead of just defaulting to *is*. You're not helping me change me mind if your arguments are "this is just the case".

Jun. 18, 2021 at 10:05 a.m.

#11

ecupirate07

Joined: Jun. 2020

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Quoting: MelonVK

If anything because it bumped Svechnikov up the lineup.

Can you explain to me then why Aho's isolated numbers are so unimpressive? Teräväinen and Aho are given some pretty good opportunities, and they're good power players, but that's also less valuable than good 5on5 players. It's not that either are bad, it's that Eichel is one of the best players in the league and neither Aho or Teräväinen come close to that.

Can anyone just give me a number, or a reason, anything as to *why*? Instead of just defaulting to *is*. You're not helping me change me mind if your arguments are "this is just the case".

Aho was moved to center before Svech was in the lineup. Before Svech was drafted even. Svech has played twice as much without Aho as with. Aho’s numbers aren’t inflated because of a sneaky Svech. Lets squash that false narrative. Aho’s 5v5 numbers would be higher if RBA actually played our top 3 together regularly instead of spreading out the offense.

Eichel may be better than Aho but downgrading from Turbo to Tatar erased everything you gained. Then we add more 4th liners we don’t need and those defensive pairings further drag us down.

Where did Bean go?

In the end, we aren’t trading Aho for Eichel. Better ISO numbers or not, Aho is our superstar and we aren’t trading him. We know we have a winner in Aho.

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Jun. 18, 2021 at 10:08 a.m.

#12

Canes2028

Joined: Feb. 2021

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Quoting: MelonVK

If anything because it bumped Svechnikov up the lineup.

Well that's just not true. Svech played 3rd line pretty much all of his rookie year.

Jun. 18, 2021 at 10:34 a.m.

#13

MelonVK

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Quoting: ecupirate07

Aho was moved to center before Svech was in the lineup. Before Svech was drafted even. Svech has played twice as much without Aho as with. Aho’s numbers aren’t inflated because of a sneaky Svech. Lets squash that false narrative. Aho’s 5v5 numbers would be higher if RBA actually played our top 3 together regularly instead of spreading out the offense.

Eichel may be better than Aho but downgrading from Turbo to Tatar erased everything you gained. Then we add more 4th liners we don’t need and those defensive pairings further drag us down.

Where did Bean go?

In the end, we aren’t trading Aho for Eichel. Better ISO numbers or not, Aho is our superstar and we aren’t trading him. We know we have a winner in Aho.

You can sign Bean, idc. Tatar has great underlying numbers but there's a disconnect in talent on that Mtl team. Their best players - him, Gallagher and Toffoli all play on the wing, while their best C is mostly skilled defensively. All he needs on a line a competent C and some finishing talent and you'll see how much of an underpayment 5 mil is. He's producing way more offense out of way less opportunity than TT.

But sure, revert to "superstar" when Eichel still has more of that quality as well. In the end people, especially on this board, will always overvalue players on their own team I guess.

Jun. 18, 2021 at 10:46 a.m.

#14

ecupirate07

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Quoting: MelonVK

You can sign Bean, idc. Tatar has great underlying numbers but there's a disconnect in talent on that Mtl team. Their best players - him, Gallagher and Toffoli all play on the wing, while their best C is mostly skilled defensively. All he needs on a line a competent C and some finishing talent and you'll see how much of an underpayment 5 mil is. He's producing way more offense out of way less opportunity than TT.

But sure, revert to "superstar" when Eichel still has more of that quality as well. In the end people, especially on this board, will always overvalue players on their own team I guess.

Tatar is a downgrade defensively over Turbo by a decent margin. Turbo’s underlying numbers are great. He also makes everyone underlying numbers better when out there on the ice. Turbo is also a 200 foot, all situations player. Tatar isn’t.

Will I overvalue Aho, iofcourse. He fits the team culture, fits the teams playing style, and is our 1C. We can’t say Eichel would meet the 1st two so, I will hold Aho to a higher regard. Would i add Eichel? Sure but, Aho isn’t included in the deal.

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Jun. 18, 2021 at 11:11 a.m.

#15

MelonVK

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Quoting: ecupirate07

Tatar is a downgrade defensively over Turbo by a decent margin. Turbo’s underlying numbers are great. He also makes everyone underlying numbers better when out there on the ice. Turbo is also a 200 foot, all situations player. Tatar isn’t.

Will I overvalue Aho, iofcourse. He fits the team culture, fits the teams playing style, and is our 1C. We can’t say Eichel would meet the 1st two so, I will hold Aho to a higher regard. Would i add Eichel? Sure but, Aho isn’t included in the deal.

Teräväinen can't improve other peoples isolated numbers, then they wouldn't be isolated. Tatar actually reduces isolated shots in his own direction more than TT, and is incredible going forward. Teuvo is better on the power play which drives a lot of his offense and that's also the only situation I'd play him over Tatar. What's annoying is, that if this happened and instead Tatar was playing for your favorite team, I believe you'd easily make a 180 in favor of my argument. And the same goes for Eichel. Idk, I just think it's weird to evaluate players with your favorite team in mind.

If someone offered my Eichel for Pastrnak I'd just take it. It sucks to lose Pasta - a guy I for one thing think is hilarious, but also an incredibly talented and important player on the Bruins roster, but Eichel is just better.

Jun. 18, 2021 at 12:01 p.m.

#16

ecupirate07

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Quoting: MelonVK

Teräväinen can't improve other peoples isolated numbers, then they wouldn't be isolated. Tatar actually reduces isolated shots in his own direction more than TT, and is incredible going forward. Teuvo is better on the power play which drives a lot of his offense and that's also the only situation I'd play him over Tatar. What's annoying is, that if this happened and instead Tatar was playing for your favorite team, I believe you'd easily make a 180 in favor of my argument. And the same goes for Eichel. Idk, I just think it's weird to evaluate players with your favorite team in mind.

If someone offered my Eichel for Pastrnak I'd just take it. It sucks to lose Pasta - a guy I for one thing think is hilarious, but also an incredibly talented and important player on the Bruins roster, but Eichel is just better.

I didn’t say isolated numbers did I? I said underlying numbers because he does improve everyone’s xGA, xGf, HD chances for and against, etc. I don’t look at just iso because hockey isn’t an individual sport or really one that one individual makes a huge difference (ie basketball).

Teuvo is excellent on the PK as well and Tatar isn’t trusted in those situations. Again Turbo is better all around. If someone holds Tatar higher than Teuvo then that is on them. Teuvo is easily a better player all the way around and it isn’t close.

The original post wasn’t Aho for Eichel so your Pastarnak argument is moot. Aho is a 1C and the improvement is marginal. Pastarnak is a winger and centers hold a higher value. Of course you do that move.

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Jun. 18, 2021 at 7:38 p.m.

#17

SaskCanesFan

Joined: Mar. 2019

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I mean, if you want to argue that Eichel is worth the premium over Aho, go for it. Not sure I agree with you, but I can see the argument. Though it seems like you're leaning heavily on isolated impact as if its 100% be all end all foolproof stat. That seems to be an issue with a lot of people who lean heavily into advanced stats, picking and choosing one area and ignoring everything else. I'm not a pure eye test guy by any means, but hockey is hard to track and advanced stats are still in the early stages. If you want a competing number, I can pull up GSVA from Dom's Athletic model. I don't know how often he published updated numbers, so I'll go off his season previews. He's got Eichel and Aho even at 3.1 each. Interestingly he also has Teravainen at 2.8 vs Tatar at 2.2. Is his model perfect? Nope. But neither are your isolated numbers, so pretending that Eichel for Aho and Tatar for Teravainen conclusively improves the team seems a bit overconfident in one stat.

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Jun. 19, 2021 at 5:54 a.m.

#18

MelonVK

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Quoting: SaskCanesFan

I mean, if you want to argue that Eichel is worth the premium over Aho, go for it. Not sure I agree with you, but I can see the argument. Though it seems like you're leaning heavily on isolated impact as if its 100% be all end all foolproof stat. That seems to be an issue with a lot of people who lean heavily into advanced stats, picking and choosing one area and ignoring everything else. I'm not a pure eye test guy by any means, but hockey is hard to track and advanced stats are still in the early stages. If you want a competing number, I can pull up GSVA from Dom's Athletic model. I don't know how often he published updated numbers, so I'll go off his season previews. He's got Eichel and Aho even at 3.1 each. Interestingly he also has Teravainen at 2.8 vs Tatar at 2.2. Is his model perfect? Nope. But neither are your isolated numbers, so pretending that Eichel for Aho and Tatar for Teravainen conclusively improves the team seems a bit overconfident in one stat.

This is annoying, cause I'm more than 99% Dom would agree with me. I'm talking about isolated as in expected goals forward and against based on shot and shooting impacts. This is ass all-encapsulating as we get. Dom's GSVA is really good for predicting what type of scoring to expect from a player on a specific team, but it falls appart when opportunity and team mates shift. That's why I lean on a more sophisticated model when we're talking about trading players. If you just wanted me to predict the types of individual seasons Eichel and Aho would have on their current respective teams, I think GSVA is a great method. And I'm not talking about one stat, I don't know where you get that idea.

Jun. 19, 2021 at 6:01 a.m.

#19

MelonVK

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Quoting: ecupirate07

I didn’t say isolated numbers did I? I said underlying numbers because he does improve everyone’s xGA, xGf, HD chances for and against, etc. I don’t look at just iso because hockey isn’t an individual sport or really one that one individual makes a huge difference (ie basketball).

Teuvo is excellent on the PK as well and Tatar isn’t trusted in those situations. Again Turbo is better all around. If someone holds Tatar higher than Teuvo then that is on them. Teuvo is easily a better player all the way around and it isn’t close.

The original post wasn’t Aho for Eichel so your Pastarnak argument is moot. Aho is a 1C and the improvement is marginal. Pastarnak is a winger and centers hold a higher value. Of course you do that move.

If you don't isolate the numbers you have no perception of how they will change if you, as in this instance, swap teams of players.

There's no substance in the second sentence.

Not only is this incredibly incorrect - why would we ever care about position over total impact, but it's also missing my point.
If someone provides a set value, why would we care about where it comes from? And even if more value was provided from the C position you're making my argument easier, cause then it'd be even more valuable to provide equal value from the wing.

I chose the example cause he's also a young player on a cheaper contract than Eichel who scores a lot of goals/points. Now, I think Pasta is a better player than Aho, and he's a great dude playing on the team I like to watch, but I'm saying I'd still trade him for Eichel without thinking twice. Because at the end of the day we should want better hockey players rather than the ones we are comfortable with already having on our teams.

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