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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 10, 2022 at 4:37 p.m.
Thread: Some huge-Hughes trades
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TheRealisticGuy</b></div><div>I signed him 3M but people would complain saying he’ll get more elsewhere. I don’t want a young RHD, I want a veteran one who can eat minutes and the fans would love it. Subban liked it here in MTL, so why not ?</div></div>

Subban was ran out of town and was notoriously disliked by that locker room. Sure, nobody from those teams is around anymore, still something to consider.

He's worth *maybe* half of what you've given him here, maybe 2.5 considering his "veteran presence" and adjusting for the open market bump but there's just absolutely no comparable at that value for what he's produced the last 4 years.

But again, maybe it would take 4 million to get him to come back to MTL.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 10, 2022 at 1:04 a.m.
Thread: Could be could be whos to say
Basing this off entirely reports and market estimates, not just my gut, ya know? But if you want to see where the numbers come from:

Nuke's Figure: people are expecting 5-6 million, most saying less than 6. I went on the high end here.
https://coloradohockeynow.com/2022/07/08/valeri-nichushkin-contract-avalanche-getting-close/
https://theathletic.com/3372735/2022/06/19/avalanches-valeri-nichushkin-is-having-himself-a-playoffs-and-earning-himself-a-payday/
https://twitter.com/KevinWeekes/status/1545873795164082176
https://dobberhockey.com/2022/05/24/free-agency-2022-salary-projections-for-the-top-150-free-agents/

Sturm: Might be the closest thing to a reach I have on here, I'd be willing to say he maybe make it to 1.75/2 at the absolute top end of the spectrum, but 1.3 is typical for bottom 6 players of his caliber getting their second raise. He's a 4th/fringe 3rd liner with limited offensive upside on a team controlled RFA contract, nobody's gonna offer sheet him, he's due for a raise but nothing crazy.
https://dobberhockey.com/2022/05/24/free-agency-2022-salary-projections-for-the-top-150-free-agents/
https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2022/04/19123243/Screen-Shot-2022-04-19-at-12.05.25-PM.png

Lehkonen: A projected *offer sheet* for Lekhonen, more or less his absolute top end ceiling value, is projected around 4.3 million. 4.0 million to stay with the club that controls his rights is more than a fair estimate.
https://theathletic.com/3388856/2022/06/30/nhl-offer-sheet-candidates-2022/

Brett Kulak: projected at 2.0 million to stay with the oilers, bottoms out at 1 million, 2.3 million bump for the added open market value to sign with a contender.
https://theathletic.com/3262837/2022/04/22/oilers-brett-kulak-contract/
https://dobberhockey.com/2022/05/24/free-agency-2022-salary-projections-for-the-top-150-free-agents/

Vatrano: 2.5 million to remain with the rangers, 4.1 million projected on the open market. I'm ballpark here.
https://www.foreverblueshirts.com/new-york-rangers-extend-frank-vatrano/
https://dobberhockey.com/2022/05/24/free-agency-2022-salary-projections-for-the-top-150-free-agents/
https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2022/04/19125344/Screen-Shot-2022-04-19-at-12.40.38-PM.png

Georgiev: Closest thing I have here to an overpay, but that extra million is like what was tacked onto Grubi's contract when he came here. Dude's due a raise, but again, an RFA, team controlled. Joe has shown he doesn't like paying for goalies.
https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2022/04/19125707/Screen-Shot-2022-04-19-at-12.38.56-PM.png

Ryan Murray:
Dude was a healthy scratch in the playoffs, for stretches at a time in the regular season, or was injured. He doesn't have much leverage, but if this one tears you up feel free to switch him out for any of the other million dollar/veteran minimum defensemen lmao.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 28, 2021 at 3:15 p.m.
Thread: LANDYS BACK BABY AVS CAN NEVER DIE LIVE 1000 YEARS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>TrueCanuck</b></div><div>That's exactly why I'm saying he's not worth it. He's typically seen as a guy that's "good but plays behind a terrible defence" - which I don't buy. His advantages stats have been declining as well and sure a change of scenery could do him wonders, but I don't think he's a top 15 goalie in the league. As for your age comment, it doesn't really make sense because he's right in the middle of 26 and 30 so he's not really pushing either way. Anaheim needs top calibre left handed defenceman so I think they'd be set on Byram being a dealbreaker - be smarter for Colorado to make a deal elsewhere for a goalie that's better and doesn't cost as much.</div></div>

I think if he can be had at the right price, with the way the Avs d is locked up, AND if you can get them to eat enough of that salary for 5 million, it's fine, probably projects as a slightly better Grubauer, we love it.

I think Ana's FO differs from their fans, I think they'd know that his value is an all-time low, and that Byram isn't on the table. Byram's value is higher than Gibson's at this point lmao.

Agree to disagree I suppose.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 28, 2021 at 3:13 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 28, 2021 at 3:00 p.m.
Thread: rip grubi but LANDYS STILL BACK AVS STILL NEVER DIE STILL LIVE 1000 YEARS
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>moli92</b></div><div>I dont understand why Gibson is valued so high. He was great 3 years ago but the past 2 years have been brutal. Even by GSAx Gibson has been one of the worst goalies the past 2 years. Theres definitely a high ceiling and bounce back potential but I just dont understand the valuation of multiple 1sts + top prospects + more</div></div>

SEE EXACTLY THAT'S WHAT I'M SAYING.

I'm trying to strike to middle ground, I think franchise guy, long term signed, healthy, bounce back candidate, been playing in front of a really bad Defense on a team that certainly currently seems to have the a lackluster culture when it comes to focusing and winning.

For me, the extra picks/prospects are to get them to eat that salary while they're rebuilding. I also know Ana's rebuilding atm and playing hardball.

pick + Compher is for Rakell, Beacage is to get them to eat the max salary they can on him.

Pick + Newhook is for Gibson, extra picks are to get them to eat salary long-term on him.

I think he's a three pick + prospect kinda guy, I chose to lean a little higher this time around to stave off the "AnA sAys No dO yOU kNOw WhAt hE'S wORtH" people.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 28, 2021 at 2:09 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 28, 2021 at 1:11 p.m.
Thread: Dnvr chaos
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ansabch12</b></div><div>I really don't understand how you see it like that, Shane Bowers is a B tier prospect, the pick is in 2024 from a team thats likely top 5 in the league, a pretty pointless 2nd from again a team thats likely top 5 in the league, and Alex Newhook is a great value piece im not parting with my best player and future captain for that package. If Byram isn't involved in the trade its a pretty easy no from the Flames.</div></div>

You're gonna over value him just like I'm gonna overvalue Landeskog, I don't care if he's *your team's* best player, 2-3 high picks 2-3 three mid-high prospects is plenty fair for a 60-70 point top-15 guy. That's absolutely the starting point lmao. Like I said, maybe throw in an extra pick and/or prospect bc of CO's prospects, but my point was that's the value, in a vaccuum is there. Now, that's a rebuilding blow-it-up move, and it doesn't necessarily seem like that's where CGY is, so yes, this trade doesn't make sense, and under that context, it absolutely would take more to pry him away, BUT in a vaccum the value's there.

You're not gonna get Byram + prospects and picks if you want that trade, value wise. Byram projects as a top-15 NHL defensemen, you could *maybe* get Byram + low-mid prospect or mid pick.

My point's about sheer value, the sheer value is there. The context and what CGY as an org. are trying to do make this trade untenable, hence why it would require more.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2021 at 6:25 p.m.
Thread: DNVR - If Landy walks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Meeqs</b></div><div>You seem pleasant

I feel like I give valid reasoning and don't find anything I say rude. Seems more to me like you are in a bad place and are just taking it that way. I hope your day gets better.

I am also going to make one in the next few days, you are welcome to tell me how bad it is when I do</div></div>

Man, you're not constructive, you call people's ideas garbage without explaining why, you dunk on them without offering any alternatives.

Nothing you said here had any valid reasoning, just be nice man it's not hard.

Even here, I say you're acting like a jackass and you go off about how some stranger is "in a bad place." Buddy, you're the one scouring forums to anonymously tell people their ideas are garbage. I hope you stop and I hope things look up for you, but I'm gonna call a spade a spade, and if I see you acting like a prick, I'm gonna call you prick lmao.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2021 at 6:17 p.m.
Thread: DNVR - If Landy walks
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Meeqs</b></div><div>So you let Gabe walk and then massively overpaid for a worse version of Gabe and signed him for a deal that was close enough to have found a way for Gabe to stay?

Then you gave away Kadri for free</div></div>

Anyways, to his point, I agree.

Reinhart's good, but if you're gonna drop 7.6M, I'd personally rather spend that on the captain and heart and soul of the team.

I'd wonder if Ott moves out assets like that for an older rental like Kadri unless they're convinced they can get more for him at the deadline. Without any prospects or young guns going to Ott, and without taking any of their older contracts, I don't know if Ott makes this move when they're still in rebuilding mode.

Curious if you drop that 7.6M on Gabe, what the assets you used to acquire Reinhart could be used on instead. Maybe flip Kadri to someone willing to put up more, and see what upgrades can be had on the middle 6? I'm fine parting with all of those if they upgrade the roster.

Good numbers on Jost and Grubi, although I think they're fair, I wonder if the market is going to bump them up a bit.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 23, 2021 at 5:25 p.m.
Thread: Col and CBJ Swap Underperforming Centers DNVR
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ArakinSkywalker</b></div><div>The big issue i have with this one is that Domi wants to be a center. He Could play center this season for us but if newhook takes a step forward in his development odds are he will take that spot. So i think Domi leaves to go play center somewhere by free agency the season after. So we'd be throwing away the two prospects for an underperforming center. I'd rather go big and get an actual upgrade there</div></div>

See, I see where you're coming from on this, but honestly, I think that's okay. This is a "win now" roster, the Avs actual window is maybe 2 years including this season. Jean Luc probably wasn't going to take time from Kaut, Bowers, Ranta, and Beaucage has got some promise, but he's probably 1-3 years out anyway. If Domi recaptures his 70 point form, you're not resigning him with Burky, Bowers, and the hole on D coming off the books, and needing to sign Mack to big a contract the year after. Domi's replacement is on the roster in Newhook, it's much easier to go out and trade for another Burakovsky/Donskoi player to pair him with in the next season than it is to try and sign a minimum 5 million dollar center I say.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 21, 2021 at 5:56 p.m.
Thread: Another angle
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Meeqs</b></div><div>I think you are misunderstanding the concept of value in relation to team window. A win now player just does nothing of value for Ott and this year is such a weak year that drop in 1st rounder is not insignificant. Value does not exist in a vaccum.

Col just moved out 8m in cap this past week and would only need to find 1.5m in cap space to sign Buch to a 6x8 so I see no reason why you would be worried about it. It could be done so easily. Have Donskoi's replacement make 2.4m AAV or less: done. Send JTC to the minors: done. It's nbd</div></div>

BUDDY come on now, listen to yourself take your own advice. Of course value doesn't exist in a vacuum. Ottawa's about 2-3 years from really competing, acquiring Strome does one of two things: you find out he's a great fit, he likes the town and the team, stays on board, you expedite that process and ride internal growth into the next year. If he doesn't, you flip him at the deadline for more prospects and assets (all of which, again, are better to have as a rebuilding team as opposed to 30 year old Austin Watson). It's a move that has the potential to move your roster forward, OR give you fodder to acquire assets that'll help you do that — at the absolute worst, if Strome stays past the Deadline AND walks, you have 1.5 million more in cap space next offseason than you did with Watson on the roster, and I promise you players like him grow on trees. Besides, if I'm the owner of Ottawa, and I find out that my GM didn't want a scoring center and two blue-chip prospects bc one of those pieces is technically a "win-now" piece, you bet you're ass I'm firing them. Having Strome opens so many possibilities, you could flip him again, you could sign him, etc AND you're getting prospects and assets to boot? Come on now. You're misevaluating what a "random" year in the draft does to teams big boards. Could very well be Ottawa has their eyes on someone they know will be there at 15, could very well be they're content to take the best available player. Again, the only thing stopping this trade if I'm Ottawa if someone I want is at 10 and isn't going past that.

Yes, COL moved the easiest 8 million they could have on their roster. Who do you move next to clear space bud? Girard? Toews? One of the forwards? How you gonna do that and make sure you're at least getting an on par player? The Buchnevich deal is silly and shortsighted without first addressing Cale, Landy, Grubi, Jost, Timmins, the need for a 6th D, a potential new goalie tandem, etc.

But hey! If you're so certain it'd work, make the roster yourself man, you're literally on the site for it haha. I'm just saying, I think you're wrong here, if you can make it work be my guest, but just spitballing this idea here, it sounds like a bad one.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 21, 2021 at 3:50 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 21, 2021 at 3:47 p.m.
Thread: Another angle
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Meeqs</b></div><div>I don't see any reason why Ott cares about a 1 year rental, they aren't making the playoffs next year.

Col will be more than fine with the cap space. There are like 10 ways you can make it work.</div></div>

Yeah you're off on this one bud, you take the one year rental in Strome (especially when what you're switching him out for is Watson) and see if you can get him to stick around. If not, that's okay, you'll have free agency to replace him and/or whatever role Watson filled in the first place (if they don't have the internal pieces to do it at that point lmao), and besides, even if Strome walks, you've turned a career-bottom 9 Austin Watson into a projected middle 6 guy and a top 15 overall pick. Again, unless they have their eyes deadset on someone at 10, this is a steal of a trade.

I stand by what I said re: COL, this trade makes no sense with the current shape of the roster. But if they answer some of those other questions, sure, maybe.