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Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 17, 2022 at 11:18 a.m.
Thread:
After jack hans article
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Rob32sjsharks</b></div><div>Debrincat was a total Fleecing of Chicago, your not getting that good of a deal. that said this isn’t far off but you gotta add for us to take bailey as he would be essentially worthless to the sharks
remember Meier is only 26 is 4” and 40lbs bigger and on a legit team with 2 scoring lines should be a 40G 90p potential.
remember he scored 35 and was a PPG on a team with literally 3 top 6 guys and one was couture.
he will be closer to if not 9 mil a year.</div></div>
Fiala just got 19 in a worse draft and faber. The way i broke down this trade was for the most part holmstrom to move bailey and 2 1sts and bolduc for meier which considering the other trades that have happened recently for PPG wingers is pretty solid.
As for the contract who knows. I wouldnt give him 8×9 and i dont think he gets that unless he puts up another season of 40g 90p which i dont think he does. Tage thompson just got 7×7 and hes a C. Robert thomas and jordan kyrou just got 8×8.125. Fiala got 8×<8 so i dont think its crazy to give him 8 years 64-65m
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 17, 2022 at 11:08 a.m.
Thread:
Ideal lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>XGAR only has to do with his own finishing talent. In terms of driving offense, he’s below league average. He is not good in transition nor does he pass well. He needs his linemates to drive the play. That’s why you can’t look at one chart and come to the conclusion on a player.
You just proved you don’t understand the own chart you posted. His competition (quality of competition) is at 47% meaning Pageau does not often face top lines. 53% of NHL forwards face tougher competition than Pageau.</div></div>
You still havent explained why your 1st chart says pageau is in the 69th percentile in 'offense'
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 17, 2022 at 11:03 a.m.
Thread:
Ideal lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>XGAR only has to do with his own finishing talent. In terms of driving offense, he’s below league average. He is not good in transition nor does he pass well. He needs his linemates to drive the play. That’s why you can’t look at one chart and come to the conclusion on a player.
You just proved you don’t understand the own chart you posted. His competition (quality of competition) is at 47% meaning Pageau does not often face top lines. 53% of NHL forwards face tougher competition than Pageau.</div></div>
Talk about not understanding charts. Quality of competition and quality of teammates is based solely on TOI. It does not calculate actual skill at all.
As for the Jfresh player card, he doesnt use single stats like xGAR. His 5v5 offense number is based solely on on ice expected goals for which tabulates his even strength offensive war.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 17, 2022 at 2:55 a.m.
Thread:
After jack hans article
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GiggywithGibby</b></div><div>He is certainly next year's prize asset. I don't think your package gets it done though, Debrincat got a 7 OA pick with a 2nd and 3rd, picks 19 and 27 are much closer to an early 2nd in value than 7OA, and if SJS is going to commit to a rebuild, they will want higher value picks, or more of them. You may need to look at tossing in some of NYIs 1sts as well.
I also have my doubts he will take that small a pay raise.</div></div>
Remember holmstrom and bolduc are in there as well. Not to mention a much better draft where 19 is probably more like 14-15 last year as well as debrincat being significantly better.
As for the contract what do you think he gets?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 17, 2022 at 2:25 a.m.
Thread:
Ideal lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>If we were to go in depth on every models evaluation of Pageau, I could easily prove you wrong on everything you're saying about Pageau. You just posted a chart without knowing anything about it.</div></div>
I mean i dont think im hallucinating and the chart you posted shows JGPs expected goals above replacement at even strength just under 6 which judging by the bar graph is pretty solid. Certainly not the "black hole offensively" that you claimed.
In fact they rate his offensive production 69/100 which is very solid for a guy whos job is to shutdown opposing top lines
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 17, 2022 at 1:52 a.m.
Thread:
Ideal lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Isles5513</b></div><div>He believes that these graphs tell the whole story, he legitimately does not see anyway they could be flawed. He buys into them 110%, even when the people who made them don’t.</div></div>
Yeah its true and makes for a very unpleasant discussion
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 17, 2022 at 1:50 a.m.
Thread:
Ideal lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Isles5513</b></div><div>Thanks! It’s nice to be appreciated lol.</div></div>
Ill be brutally honest i disagree with you on probably 80% of the things you say. But i do appreciate that you formulated your own opinions. The same cannot be said for everyone else.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 17, 2022 at 1:33 a.m.
Thread:
Ideal lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>I do not use jfresh, Evolving hockey is much better at isolating a player from his teammates. My point stands, he's a bottom 6 player - an average 3C. He gets a lot of ice time with the isles top players.
<img class="for_img" src="" alt=""><img src="https://i.ibb.co/FxC0YgJ/Screen-Shot-2022-09-16-at-11-36-19-PM.png" alt="Screen-Shot-2022-09-16-at-11-36-19-PM">"></div></div>
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>at even strength pageau is below average at driving possession, generating offense and increasing the rate the isles score goals.
<img class="for_img" src="" alt=""><img src="https://i.ibb.co/6XQhFh2/Screen-Shot-2022-09-16-at-11-40-35-PM.png" alt="Screen-Shot-2022-09-16-at-11-40-35-PM">"></div></div>
Seems like even evolving hockey cant make up their mind about JGP. But its very interesting bc <a href="/users/isles5513" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@isles5513</a> does have a point. Youre an extremely irrational person who does worship in a way analytical descriptions and cant put your own thoughts on something.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 16, 2022 at 11:29 p.m.
Thread:
Ideal lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>Of course Raty won’t make the team, the isles do not care about winning
That’s not likely, Pageau is an extremely mediocre bottom 6 player during the regular season. Ratys D+1 was identical to Anton Lundell who had a 2nd line impact in a 3rd line role last season</div></div>
Its amazing how you believe automatically that raty who hasnt proved a damn thing yet will for sure be good but JGP who has proven many times to be good you somehow think isnt. The delusion that follows top prospects is insane. I think raty can become a high end 2C but i dont think im delusional about the development path to get there.
<div class="tweet"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="zxx" dir="ltr"><a href="https://t.co/SZts6tmm5l" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">pic.twitter.com/SZts6tmm5l</a></p>— Ethan Shuter (<a href="/users/islesforthecup" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@islesforthecup</a>) <a href="https://twitter.com/islesforthecup/status/1559055912853192705?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">August 15, 2022</a></blockquote>
</div>
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 16, 2022 at 11:23 p.m.
Thread:
Ideal lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>Of course Raty won’t make the team, the isles do not care about winning
That’s not likely, Pageau is an extremely mediocre bottom 6 player during the regular season. Ratys D+1 was identical to Anton Lundell who had a 2nd line impact in a 3rd line role last season</div></div>
Wtf are you smoking pageau was bad during the regular season. He is consistently one of the isles' best forwards.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 16, 2022 at 11:22 p.m.
Thread:
24-25 roster prediction
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>When you take into consideration how bad of a hockey player is , 1 mill in savings and replacing him with a better player is worth it.
The following year the cap is supposed to skyrocket so it doesn’t matter</div></div>
You could bury him or scratch him so your idea of getting him out of the lineup is worthless. Also irdk where you heard that the cap was supposed to skyrocket for 24-25 but i thought the cap was supposed to go up 1m till 2025
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 16, 2022 at 11:19 p.m.
Thread:
Ideal lines
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>Because Parise fits better with Bellows and Raty</div></div>
Aside from the fact that raty probably doesmt make the team. In his 1st season JGP will be head and shoulders above him.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 16, 2022 at 11:17 p.m.
Thread:
24-25 roster prediction
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>It would save 2.3 mill against the cap next season, he can be replaced with a player on an ELC</div></div>
Assuming he gets replaced by a player making 1⅓m it saves just 1 million while tacking on another 1⅔m the next year. Thats a bad proposition and certainly not "buyout friendly".
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 16, 2022 at 7:29 p.m.
Thread:
24 and under
Dobson?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 16, 2022 at 7:25 p.m.
Thread:
24-25 roster prediction
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Db1899</b></div><div>The chances of Lou being the GM of the isles next offseason are extremely low. Bailey is the ideal buyout candidate because it’s buyout friendly. Teams move on from much better (and loyal) players all the time. Mcdonagh, backes, Perry etc. is the goal to win or just make mediocre long time players comfortable .</div></div>
How is baileys contract buyout friendly?????
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 16, 2022 at 7:24 p.m.
Thread:
My top 10 at every position
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Juiceman</b></div><div>Let’s blame the goalie for their teammates taking penalties and not knowing how to defend on the penalty kill</div></div>
It seems you dont even have a basic knowledge of how expected goals are calculated
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 16, 2022 at 1:42 p.m.
Thread:
My top 10 at every position
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Juiceman</b></div><div>That’s a product of Vancouvers historically bad penalty kill. Go to 5v5 stats and Demko clears in basically every single major category</div></div>
If you have to just casually dismiss pk stats for a goalie it meams your goalie isnt as good as you want him to be. Also no matter how good or bad a pk is it will be taken into account with expected goals. Hellebuyck saved more goals above expected than demko. That means on the pk he was better than demko
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 16, 2022 at 2:58 a.m.
Thread:
My top 10 at every position
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xqb15a</b></div><div>I fully understand not a single GM takes DeBrincat over Kaprisov, not a knock on DeBrincat but Kaprisov is a whole other level, and I hate the Wild.</div></div>
I guess we agree to disagree then
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 16, 2022 at 2:55 a.m.
Thread:
My top 10 at every position
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Juiceman</b></div><div>You must have missed Demko's bubble run. He had 2 goals against in 3 games with a 0.985 save percentage against Vegas. Have you even looked at Vancouver's defense? You wanna tell me that Canucks have a better d core than Winnipeg?</div></div>
I had a feeling you were gonna bring this up. 2 games 3 years ago is not a very compelling argument. As for the Ds yes, quinn hughes is 5 times as good as any dman winnipeg has. The rest of the dmen are pretty even
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 15, 2022 at 8:27 p.m.
Thread:
My top 10 at every position
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Xqb15a</b></div><div>Kaprisov is definitely MUCh better than DeBrincat, you’re high if you don’t think so a 108pt player vs a 78pt player that isn’t even the same realm, he scored more goals, had more assists and drives play like A center. He is better in basically every metric there is. Stone is great, but availability has to be factored into it, but the argument Stone is better than Marner at least has some merit.</div></div>
I dont think youre understanding what these ranking are. They arent ranking the players who had the best seasons last year. Theyre ranking which players i believe are the best players. Obviously last season will play a big part in that but its not the be all and end all.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 15, 2022 at 1:14 a.m.
Thread:
My top 10 at every position
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MisstheWhalers</b></div><div>I'll trade ya "elite Helle" for Demko any day.. lol</div></div>
Yeah idk who id rather from a roster building standpoint given demkos age and contract compared to hellebuycks but if i had to pick one for a game 7 or a cup finals im picking hellebuyck 9 times out of 10
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 15, 2022 at 1:13 a.m.
Thread:
My top 10 at every position
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MisstheWhalers</b></div><div>An elite goalie should be able to steal a game or two, he doesn't.</div></div>
What are you smoking? Have you seen the state of winnipegs roster
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 15, 2022 at 1:11 a.m.
Thread:
My top 10 at every position
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Juiceman</b></div><div>Hellebucyk wasn't as elite this year as previous years. Using the argument that he was elite in the past is not relevant for goaltenders. Matt Murray was elite before but now look. Same as Binnington.</div></div>
That was in response to a different horrible take. Sorry but hellebuyck is still elite.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 15, 2022 at 1:02 a.m.
Thread:
My top 10 at every position
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>MisstheWhalers</b></div><div>No man, Demko can win games on his own, Helle can't.
Demko is somewhere in the 3-5 range, Helle ranks somewhere in the 6-10 spot.</div></div>
Whaaaaaaaat? The only reason the jets were relevant before this year was bc of hellebuyck. 🤦🤦🤦🤦 hellebuyck cant win games on his own ffs at least try to be somewhat objective.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Sep. 15, 2022 at 1:00 a.m.
Thread:
My top 10 at every position
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>cMac73</b></div><div>I’d put Kaprizov number 1 but I think you can argue everyone that’s ahead of him to be ahead of him besides DeBrincat. Gaudreau and Huberdeau are both 110+ point guys at least last year, Marchand is an amazing overall player near 100 points when fully healthy, Ovechkin is still a 50 goal scorer playing with lesser players, but DeBrincat for sure belongs behind Kaprizov. Yes he seems like a certified 40 goal scorer now but he played with Kane and yet his numbers aren’t even that close to Kaprizov. So I guess it’s reasonable to have Kaprizov behind most of those guys, though I don’t agree, but he definitely belongs ahead of DeBrincat</div></div>
If youre going to mention teammates then gaudreau had tkachuk and huberdeau had barkov and marchand had both bergy and pasta. Should they be behind kaprizov bc of that? No they shouldnt. Cats played 5 seasons and has hit 40+ goals in 2 of them already not to mention a 3rd (20-21) whoch was a shortened season where he had 32 goals in 52 games which is on pace for over 50. (Also i know this shouldnt really count but in roughly 375 games hes missed just 4 and those were bc of covid contacts not injury. At his size playing just under 400 games without missing 1 due to injury is really good).
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