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Zubrowka

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Philadelphia Flyers
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Forum: NHL SigningsJun. 19, 2019 at 10:33 a.m.
Thread: Philadelphia Flyers signed Kevin Hayes (7 Years / $7,142,857 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ON3M4N</b></div><div>Ready for this one....

Over the last 3 seasons:

<em>Kevin Hayes - 223GP / 148Pts / 0.66 PGP</em>
<strong>Dustin Brown - 233GP / 148Pts / 0.64 PGP</strong>

^Dustin Brown at $5.8 is considered a bad contract...wonder what that makes this Hayes deal?</div></div>

I appreciate your choosing Brown as a comp because both players are two-way forwards whose contributions exceed raw point totals. Arguably center is a bit more valuable, but let's shelve that for a more fundamental contrast:

Dustin Brown has 3 years left on his deal and he will turn 35 in November. He will be <strong>37 </strong><em>during </em>the last season of the deal.
Hayes recently turned 27 years old in May. He will be<strong> 33 </strong><em>during</em> the last season of his new deal.
When Dustin Brown signed his deal before the 14-15 season, it was <strong>8.5%</strong> of the salary cap.
Depending upon whether the cap is set to $82 or $83 million for 19-20, Hayes' deal is expected to be between <strong>8.6-8.71%</strong> of the salary cap.

In sum, Hayes' deal is by 1-2 tenths of a percent more expensive than Brown's, but does not extend well into what should probably be retirement years. Brown's deal is significantly worse because of the age/term factor. This isn't to say UFA isn't expensive; it absolutely is. 8.6-8.7% of the cap is nothing to sneeze at. The term could be a year shorter and be more attractive, but if the salary is front loaded, then the contract is probably going to be quite marketable to a cap floor team that many years down the line. We'll get those details later.

(Edit) P.S. In the 3 seasons leading up to that deal, Brown had 207GP / 110Pts / 0.53 PPG
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 18, 2019 at 11:24 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 18, 2019 at 2:01 p.m.
Thread: south philly tire fire
The deals make sense, but the pairings, not so much. Fletcher is on record penciling in Myers to the 3rd pair to start the season. Also, no way Sanheim or Niskanen start on the 3rd pair. They're both too good for that.

If they aren't trusting Ghost to return to form yet, he is starting on the 3rd pair with Myers. If Ghost is tearing it up in camp and pre-season, they may put him back with Provy on the top pair. If that happens, the byproduct is possibly Braun (R) falling to the 7th D man and Morin (L) getting a 3rd pair shot most likely.

It's great to have such depth. Mind you, if Myers has a great season, he will move up the order for sure. I'm not knocking you for putting him so high or anything. He's got great potential. Plenty to be excited about with this D corps.
Forum: NHL TradesJun. 18, 2019 at 1:52 p.m.
Thread: (SJS/PHI) - Braun for 2019 2nd, 2020 3rd round picks
People think it's an overpay, but <a href="https://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/draft_finder.cgi?request=1&amp;amateur_selector=draft&amp;overall_min=41&amp;overall_max=41&amp;order_by=round" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">here's every #41 overall pick ever.</a>. It's not as much value as people think.
Basically Philly gets an insurance policy on the right side in Braun. If for whatever reason Myers does not keep getting better, they have a solid option in Braun for this season there. More likely, Braun serves as a luxury depth piece and mentor the young D corps. I give the Sharks the edge in the trade value but not by much. Great for them to relieve stress on the cap after EK signing and to get 2 picks to replenish their stock of draft assets is even better. Good value for Philly but better value for SJ imo.

P.S. I'd still rather have not done this deal. I'm more worried about what Fletcher is up to next than worried about this particular deal.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 29, 2019 at 1:39 p.m.
Thread: If D gt C realistically
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Btosh</b></div><div>Also, the Phantoms are likely going to need some bodies on defense IIRC; none of the European skater prospects are coming over from what I've seen so they only have 4 or 5 defensemen heading into next season as of now. That could obviously change, of course.</div></div>
I thought Hogberg was going to be coming over. I guess we will see. You are probably right, that they won't carry 8 D. The fun question is whether they will carry a 14th forward or a 3rd goalie after the raft of injuries that burned them in goal last season. I have no idea, but I am cracking up at how it must feel to be Fletch looking at that issue. It's unconventional to carry 3, but after using 8 rofl. <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/1137928">Here</a> is the updated roster.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26, 2019 at 9:58 p.m.
Thread: The Sum of All Beers
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Pmwalker</b></div><div>Good job. I don’t really hate any of it. Although if Demers is acquired I’d trade Gudas and slide Sanheim over as I feel Morin needs to play

Provorov/ Sanheim
Ghost/Demers
Morin/ Myers

Gudas traded (maybe the Leafs for a forward)
Hagg traded
McDonald buried</div></div>
Thanks! I don't actually want to add a D man right now at all. If we need one, do it at the deadline. For now, just like you said, let Morin get the minutes to show us what he's got.

The way I approached this was to take Fletcher's publicly stated shopping list (rather than my own) and go fill it within the cap without using rookie forwards and try to avoid risky long-term deals. So, it's sort of a realist model rather than a pure wishlist with just my own biases or diagnosis of what Philly needs. I will look back at this closer to the season and see how what Fletcher ultimately did compared to this just for the lols. So far, I did call the Simmonds for Hartman and a pick trade on here before the deadline. I got the pick round well off though. We'll see how it goes.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 26, 2019 at 3:31 p.m.
Thread: If D gt C realistically
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Btosh</b></div><div>I like Demers quite a bit, and was hoping that Hexy would sign him back when he was a UFA but I'm not convinced that the Yotes will want to move him. Still, he'd make sense but you probably need to give up more than Hagg and a 6th to get him.</div></div>
Took your advice, and bumped it up to a third. The premise with the Yotes dealing anyone like Demers is how badly burned they were with injuries last year. It really killed their season. They may want to shed salary of injury risk players (who are still marketable) in favor of UFA forward signings or trades to address their scoring woes. I'm convinced they will do this with someone regardless of whether the Flyers partner with them in a trade.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Btosh</b></div><div>Also, send MacDonald to the AHL and save yourself some money.</div></div>
Just leaving AMac where he is as there's no need for more $ now in this build. He's fine as depth.

Thanks for the feedback.
Forum: Armchair-GMApr. 24, 2019 at 2:45 p.m.
Thread: Bargain Hunting
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>luketd</b></div><div>I like the idea, dont know much about Nichu to talk about him. I think Hayes is our best bet at 2C, The only gripe I have with this is the contract lengths. I think Sanhiem will get 3-4 seasons as a bridge deal, and Laughton would get 2-3 seasons as well.</div></div>
Fair enough. They are just what I would push for if I was negotiating. I have no record of success predicting contract outcomes. Fletch being new here makes it even harder.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DirtyDangles</b></div><div>I would rather play Frost or anyone over Nuchuskin. The guy can't even make the Stars lineup and they are by no means deep.</div></div>
That may well be the outcome, and that's fine if Frosty is ready to roll. My prediction is they will make a move to give themselves a low commitment option (in term &amp; resources for acquisition) before promoting a prospect into the role. Bear in mind we acquired Hartman via Simmonds in large part b/c Hartman fell out of favor with Lavy (and I armchair-GM predicted that one correctly) and was under-performing his earlier career totals. That is also the case with Nuke and Montgomery. The guy started him on the checking line, so imo Nuke was not put in a position to succeed this year. The depth point, I think it goes the other way. No one is arguing Nuke is a playmaker that can carry a line. I'm arguing he is a power forward complement, but to succeed needs playmaking elsewhere on the line (hence the potential fit with Lindblom &amp; Patrick). Dallas did not have that, at all below their top line, not until Zucc and Hintz hooked up. I'd defer to Dallas fans if they think I am off-base with this.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>flatimir</b></div><div>I like the idea with Nichushkin if you can get him that cheap (probably yes). Only one year is low risk.
Offense looks realy good but on D, depthwise is not much there, so they should sign someone who can play 5/6.</div></div>
Yeah, I agree for the most part. I left D unaddressed because I see the options as all too expensive. My bet is the Flyers are more likely to make a deal at the deadline if they still feel they could use an upgrade and the team otherwise has come together really well. Edit: To add, when Fletch listed 5 of our D positively in the AV press conference, I thought that signaled they had conferred and may be mostly content with the D. Just an inference there, but we'll see. It sounded like a far, far lower priority than 2C.

Edit: Thanks for the feedback, all.