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anduril

anduril
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Sep. 18, 2020
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Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 24, 2020 at 3:45 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 24, 2020 at 2:31 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>Any OEL deal must include James Neal going the other way. Allan Mitchell at The Athletic is suggesting Neal + 2020 1st for OEL, which seems reasonable on the face.

But why are the Oilers acquiring a declining 30-year-old left defenseman in the first place? They are stacked on the left side and they have Broberg and Samorukov coming up fast. I don't see the point, myself. It makes more sense to go after Pietrangelo if they can clear that kind of cap.</div></div>

I'm actually not inclined to the acquisition. I created this more to see how it would work. I think the Oilers have other better options, including just keeping Klefbom. That being said, I'm not 100% convinced by the OEL declining narrative. He had a bad year last season (by his standards) to be sure but one season does not make a trend. And, the drawback on Klefbom, as good as he is, is that he's injury prone and gives up 20 or so games a year. That's just a significant liability when you are counting on him as 1st pair as Edmonton does. If he was 2nd pair, we might not struggle so much but when he's out of the lineup, it's just brutal. OEL has a history of being much more durable.

I'm not a subscriber to the Athletic but Lowetide is my favourite Oilers commentator. I'd certainly trust his perspective. I wonder if ARI says yes to Neal but it's better than some fan proposals that have tried to offset the salary completely. There's no way ARI makes this deal if they aren't saving REAL dollars.

The good news is that as the discussion as developed more and more people are realizing that ARI can't expect a very high return b/c of the salary and visions of 2-1sts or Klefbom and a 1st and other ideas are too high a price.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 24, 2020 at 2:17 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 22, 2020 at 6:08 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 22, 2020 at 4:15 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HabsForEver</b></div><div>He's an injury prone 30 PT defensemen. He's on a good contract and is a decent player, but let's not act like he's an elite defensemen. Where does everybody fit if Montreal acquires him?

Chiarot
Klefbom
Edmundson
Romanov
Kulak
Mete

I mean it's not logical to have that many guys</div></div>

He's obviously not an "elite" defenseman but, despite your ordering here, from what I know of these players, he immediately moves to 1LHD on the depth chart, apart from any considerations around on-ice partners/chemistry (so, e.g., if you are assuming here at Chiarot and Weber or Chiarot and Petry are perfect together). His major drawback has been injuries (misses apx. 20 games a season). He's capable of getting close to or even surpassing 40 pts. when healthy, as 2016-2017 shows. How MTL resolves its logjam of marginal 2nd and mostly 3rd pairing defensemen is a problem either way but seems odd to me not to acquire talent because you've got that logjam of depth or unproven players. Acquiring Klefbom exacerbates the issue but it's there nonetheless. The whole Edmundson acquisition was just weird. That said, if MTL doesn't value Klefbom as I thought they might based on their long history of interest in Brodin, I'd turn to someone like BOS, WPG, DET, or a whole slew of other teams that would have an interest in Klefbom. I don't think the ask is at all unreasonable for what Klefbom offers. He's a talented 2-way defenseman, who skates well and shoots hard.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 22, 2020 at 1:55 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>uphere</b></div><div>The acquisition of Ekman-Larsson is concerning for me.

Kris Russell is the only 30+ year-old d-man on the current Oilers' roster, and statistically the unit ranked right around the bottom of the top 1/3 of the league. Its clear that some improvement is necessary in order for the team to become more competitive, but that improvement might be coming from within. To my eye, the biggest issue with the current group is the propensity to get crushed by a strong fore check and cycle; it creates panic and players tend to find themselves out of position and missing assignments. I think this is symptomatic of a group that struggles to retrieve pucks and make the pass out of the d-zone quickly and effectively. The continued development of Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones might bring some improvements. They have different styles but both look like they may be better passers than Kris Russell, Matt Benning, Adam Larsson, and Darnell Nurse. Time will tell if that is the case. Once Bouchard wins the trust of Tippett, he too should bring improvements to the Oiler's d-zone break-out. Further down the road is Broberg, who looks like just the kind of medicine that can fix the Oilers' ills, and possibly Samorukov.

Given what is coming, Holland's deadline acquisition of Mike Green makes a lot of sense. It looks to me as though the plan was to move Russell and extend Green for a season, of course injury, COVID, and retirement could not be predicted. Still the move gives us some insight into what Holland's strategy may be. I think he is looking for a veteran who is less expensive than Russell, looking for a short term deal and can play top-4 if necessary. OEL doesn't fit that description. As underwhelming as it may seem, a player like Mark Pysyk may be the fit Holland is looking for.

Alternatively, if Holland thinks there is an opportunity to sign a UFA like Vatanen, he might shop Adam Larsson to make a bit more cap space, but I think that may be a bit too splashy at this point.</div></div>

I suspect you are right in looking at more conservative options. My goal here is mostly to show that it could be done.

I don't think Green was meant to replace Russell. Unfortunately, I don't see much confidence in Benning, despite his analytics, based on the way Tippett deploys him. I think the Green acquisition was meant to bolster the right side because Tippett and Holland were concerned about heading into the playoffs with a rookie in Bear and with the gap to Benning being so large in their mind. I think they may have also foreseen the possibility that Larsson's bad back would be an issue. They were prescient about Bear. If you've seen Gregor's analysis of all goals scored in the play-in, Bear is the most frequent D culprit. Of course, that's expected with a rookie playing his first "playoffs". I think we should also expect sophomore challenges for Bear. The Green pickup suggests Holland wanted to bolster the right side. Pysyk, you are right, is a likely pickup, though I tire of Edmonton going after former Oil Kings. I also think Barrie is a more aggressive but very real target. The organization has been high on Barrie for years. I suspect if Holland makes a major move, it is to sign Barrie. I suspect he'd like to keep Larsson but might trade him to recover a 2nd or if TO is willing in a deal for Johnsson. The problem with the latter is that it's a cascading effect that requires salary out. I'll maybe try an AGM and see how a Barrie signing might force changes. The problem is guessing at an accurate AAV with the present market.

I only consider the OEL trade a real possibility for two reasons. (1) It fits Holland's MO of looking for veteran, overage players (e.g., Chelios and Hasek), and (2) Coaches tend to build strong relationships with players and so Tippett might be a real advocate for this trade. The very real problem is the cascading effect created by the money.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 22, 2020 at 1:04 a.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>uphere</b></div><div>Well, I think that the plan has always been a gradual progression and the team simply over achieved last season. It was always going to take time to undo some of what the previous management did. There are contracts expiring, and dead cap space opening up as buyout charges sunset. These seem to align pretty well with the emergence of some prospects, except Lavoie and Maxsimov need more development and so there isn't much top six help coming soon. Some moves were made in the anticipation of an increase to the salary cap, but then COVID happened. Now it's back to the original plan, except there are no 2nd round picks and just one 3rd round pick in the next two years. So, it's not unreasonable to suggest Athanasiou, Benning, Lagesson, and Puljujarvi might be traded at or before the draft. Beyond that, players like Kris Russell, Alex Chiasson, and Jujhar Khaira appear to be the guys Holland might try to trade for cap space, or to redistribute salary across the roster.</div></div>

I agree with you for the most part and actually, though I call it a revamp, I've really only added 2D, an RHC, and 2G. and shuffled off 2 of the 4 you mentioned in the first group and 2 of 3 in the second group. In order to be just a little more conservative, I could include Chiasson in the Klefbom deal, not take on Kulak or Dell, and keep Koskinen and Benning as a result. I'd have to double check the money to see if that works but it's pretty close I suspect.

EDIT: I updated the AGM to reflect these changes and it still works. I had to swap in Larsson as the Bozak deal was no longer doable. I'm personally comfortable with doing so. Nygard gets into the starting lineup as a result and I call up Borgstrom to complete the 23-man roster.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 21, 2020 at 11:56 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2020 at 7:26 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2020 at 7:22 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>DJSums17</b></div><div>Logic is very flawed. Larsson is 1 of the last options I'd go for. Even with Pietrangelo off the market there's at least a dozen better and cheaper guys then Larsson. Also those 2 don't get you a 1st. They barely get you a 4th. That's a lot of cap to eat and give up a 1st. Leafs paid a 1st to get rid of 6 mill of Marleau and you want to get a 1st? 😂😂😂</div></div>

A 4th is just wrong... that's bias and doesn't reflect comparables. You can read my responses in the forum as I've defended on the logic and conceded that the ask is a *reach* but it is not as outrageous as your counter. Six dmen have been traded in the past year for a 2nd+ (plus being another pick or prospect) and in most cases, Larsson is better and/or younger, and in some cases cheaper, than those guys. RHD especially have value and Larsson is a good one who plays in a top pairing role in Edmonton and would be at least second pairing on most teams in the league. He is 27. His major drawback is that he has had some on-again, off-again back problems and his performance did suffer some after his dad's death in 2018. But, when he's on his game, he is an absolute difference-maker in Edmonton and despite the fact that he was acquired for Taylor Hall, which was an overpay, he has a lot of fans in Edmonton. Larsson is 2nd on the Oilers, behind only Klefbom, in outlet pass success rate (71.5%) and stretch pass success rate (70.6%), and he leads the Oilers by far in his dz exit success rate (84.3%).
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2020 at 7:03 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>psoglav</b></div><div>No, I think the trade is terrible because it is terrible for the Blues.

It saves the Blues $4m in cap? Entirely disingenuous. If the Blues are willing to retain 50% on Bozak then there are plenty of teams who would want Bozak at a $2.5m cap hit and $2.125m salary. Bozak at 50% for a mediocre prospect doesn't do anything for the Blues... they can find that easily elsewhere.

So this trade is Kelfbom for Parayko. Which saves the Blues $1.33m in cap.

First, Parayko is comfortably a top-5 defensive defenseman in the League, he's significantly better than Klefbom in this regard. Klefbom is a top-pairing defenseman, but Parayko is elite defensively.

Is Klefbom better than Parayko offensively? Sure. Parayko average 33.77 points per 82 games in his five years in the League. In the same five year span Klefbom averages 36.23 points per 82 games. 2.5 points a season better offensively isn't closing that defensive gap.

Then we come to the fact that RHD are more valuable than LHD. Then we can talk about the fact that Parayko has missed 13 games in his five years in the League. Klefbom has missed 99 in that same span.

Klefbom has an extra year on his contract, and that's great... but it doesn't add the value you think. It's far, far easier to be comfortable giving a healthy Parayko a long term extension at 29, how comfortable will it be giving an injury-prone 30 year old Klefbom the deal he's looking for in three years?

As for the whole right-left balance on defense... that's a load of nonsense. If Parayko was a lefty then he still wouldn't be playing with Pietrangelo, if you have two stud defensemen then you want them on different pairings; so that one is on the ice 45-50 minutes a game and they are raising the level of their two defensive partners.

As for your proposed pairings for the Blues should that trade happen... Dunn-Faulk would not be a good second pairing when you consider their skill sets. There isn't the issue that some like to pretend there is in having so much money tied up on one side of the defense, particularly when one can play either side.

Then the fact that the Blues have Dunn, Scandella and Gunnarsson on the left side, with Mikkola viewed as NHL ready and the organisation extremely high on Perunovich. Yet, we've got nobody beyond Pietrangelo, Parayko, Faulk &amp; Bortuzzo in the right. Taking a RHD to add a lefty wouldn't make sense.

Downgrading Parayko to Klefbom to save $1.33m in cap is a terrible, terrible idea for the Blues. We save more than that buying Steen out.</div></div>

Thank you for engaging thoughtfully. I take your point about Bozak at $2.5m having more suitors. That's fair. I'll need to reconsider how to make it more enticing or if there is a way for Edmonton to take the contract straight across. I also appreciate the insight on Mikkola and Perunovich. I'm not convinced that a left-side of Dunn, Scandella, and Gunnarsson is terribly attractive. Dunn and Klefbom would be a better top 4 by far with whoever the Blues wanted to slot in at number 3. My intent with the pairings was less about the chemistry of the combinations and more about pointing out the top 4. With AP, CP, and JF on the right side, you've got three righties that can and expect to play lots of minutes so that's the argument I was making for balance. I think more and more, NHL coaches prefer to play their D on their natural side.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2020 at 3:45 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2020 at 3:36 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2020 at 3:27 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2020 at 3:16 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Ryminister_27</b></div><div>Or Toronto targets a better d-man on the trade market for the 1st rounder. They can offer a better package than what you've offered for Parayko easily. They could go after Brett Pesce or possibly Dougie Hamilton. There's Dylan Demelo in free agency. Bottom line is that there's much better ways to spend the 15th overall pick in a deep draft than a 3rd pairing d-man at best and a 4th line winger. It's an easy pass for Toronto. Not even considered.</div></div>

I don't think they can offer a better package to STL based on needs. If STL moves Parayko, they logically need a LHD. Reilly is way too good; Muzzin is too old and too expensive to provide STL with the cap relief; and TO's other LHD are 3rd pair, regardless of future potential. The merit of my deal is that the Oilers assume nearly $4m in cap space and, though they get the best player in Parayko, Klefbom is not a massive drop-off in quality and even offers an additional year on his value contract than Parayko has. Financially, it's a great deal for STL.

Pesce and Hamilton are definitely very attractive options that TO should pursue over Larsson for sure. Realistically, I'm not sure Carolina is really prepared to move on either of them, even though they pop up on trade bait boards. If you look at their depth chart, they are likely walking away from Vatanen and Van Riemsdyk so that leaves them with only two natural righties in Pesce and Hamilton. More likely, they are standing pat (as Fleury can play LD or RD) or they are trading one of their lefties to acquire a righty, not trading their top 4 righties. Jake Bean, who is pushing up, is a leftie. Carolina could outbid EDM on the Parayko deal easily if they were so inclined but I doubt they want to take on $4m in cap.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2020 at 3:02 p.m.
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>aadoyle</b></div><div>Winnipeg does not have the money for both a new 2nd line center and a new backup plus resigning all there rfas

In general Larsson is not who we need. He is asking upgrade over ceci as they both such at transitioning the puck. At most all dubas would give is johnsson nothing more nothing less

In general your values on players are way off. Dubas has finances on his side and if players want stability Toronto can give it to them. Plus they get big signing bonuses meaning more money in the end on a lower cap hit.</div></div>

They have nearly $15m in cap space right now. None of their RFAs are big-tickets and if they keep Brossoit, they are not spending much on a backup. They have more than enough to sign Demelo and Hamonic. Hamonic wants to be there, which is generally unusual, and unless you overpay for Demelo, Winnipeg would likely compete on anything &lt; $5m. Don't see why WPG couldn't provide these players with stability too. I suspect if WPG gets a 2C--and there is some suggestion that they were fine with Wheeler playing centre--they will likely make a trade and that will probably involve salary in and salary out, so I don't see that cutting into their $15m substantially.

As I said, as well, if the 1st is unattainable, 2-2nds should not be based on comparables. You know TO just traded Kapanen and spare parts for a 1st, a decent depth guy, and a quality prospect, right? Kapanen for Larsson was heavily rumoured by both TO and EDM media, so, I'm not crazy here, regardless of your biases.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2020 at 2:04 p.m.