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bg77

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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 16, 2023 at 1:40 p.m.
Thread: Brad Treliving is the Cook of the Year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMDannyB</b></div><div>Dude u just compared two defenseman to TK lol. You also compared ANOTHER two guys that wanted out lol. JK publicly wanted out of Arizona and every Flyers fan knew Provy wanted out. Provy has also absolutely sucked for the last 2 seasons whereas TK just had his best season of his career on a horrible team which Provy massively helped be horrible lol. Then you compare Nylander, a guy who only has 1 year left on his contract who wants $10M+ which is almost double what TK makes and everyone on earth knows Toronto can’t pay him that so he is also basically out the door. You haven’t named a single player like Tk yet that is an actual comparable lol</div></div>

If you can actually name and cite an NHL insider who has gone on record saying that Konecny is worth two firsts then I will agree with you, but you mentioned that all insiders say this earlier in the thread and I just haven't seen anyone saying that myself. I also don't see why we can't compare Chychrun to Konecny, their contracts expire at the same time and both teams could've waited as long as they would like to move them.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 16, 2023 at 1:07 p.m.
Thread: Brad Treliving is the Cook of the Year
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMDannyB</b></div><div>Uh every single reporter and insider said TK will get more simply because the other two guys quite literally forced their way out of the their teams and their teams had no leverage. Sorry but ur just wrong. U can read anything and everyone will tell you the same thing. A cheap contract for another 2 years is totally different compared to PLD and ADB needing big contracts and forcing their way out lol, if you don’t see the difference then that’s on you. Briere literally doesn’t have to trade him, if you want him u have to meet his asking price which is more than two 1sts from what he has said. This also doesn’t change the fact you literally didn’t pay for Laughton and probably didn’t even pay enough to dump Murray. We aren’t simultaneously wildly helping your cap situation out on multiple ends while giving you 3 of our players for pennies on the dollar. Everyone knows the Leafs cap situation and if you want to get out of it you have to pay up</div></div>

I chose those two guys more because they are so recent. Even Provorov didn't get two firsts when your own team traded him and you had to eat Cal Petersen who is like a slightly more reasonable version of Matt Murray. I'd probably throw in the Calgary 2025 2nd max. Another good comparable is Jakob Chychrun, the Sens gave up a mid first, and two seconds for a guy on an even better contract. I'm not even expecting multiple firsts in a William Nylander trade, just different parts based on the current market. Although Nylander has one less year, he is more talented than Konecny and has a better AAV when comparing their numbers year over year.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2023 at 4:04 p.m.
Thread: Brad Treliving MasterChef
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ComixZone</b></div><div>Nylander definitely scratches an itch for the Flames, but if Lindholm isn’t here then it’s a rebuild for the Flames.

I look at Toronto’s needs and wonder about a three-way:

To Toronto: Chris Tanev, Mikael Backlund (50% retained), 2024 1st round pick (PIT), 2025 3rd round pick (PIT), Owen Pickering

To Pittsburgh: Noah Hanifin

To Calgary: William Nylander (+ cap dump not named Murray if needed).

I definitely think Nylander is of interest for Calgary, just not without Lindholm. Without Lindholm, the Flames are beginning to enter tankville.</div></div>

Also what about Connor Zary filling that third line centre spot and having Backlund and Kadri platoon the top six centre spots? Both played full 82 games last season and averaged a similar amount of minutes to Lindholm according to QuantHockey, so although you would be losing your best centre you are acquiring a better player in Nylander and have guys who at least can keep up with those minutes?

Without Toffoli, your next highest scorer last season was Kadri at 24 goals. That's just not going to cut it for a playoff team to lack that much offense whether Lindholm is there or not.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2023 at 3:59 p.m.
Thread: Brad Treliving MasterChef
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ComixZone</b></div><div>Nylander definitely scratches an itch for the Flames, but if Lindholm isn’t here then it’s a rebuild for the Flames.

I look at Toronto’s needs and wonder about a three-way:

To Toronto: Chris Tanev, Mikael Backlund (50% retained), 2024 1st round pick (PIT), 2025 3rd round pick (PIT), Owen Pickering

To Pittsburgh: Noah Hanifin

To Calgary: William Nylander (+ cap dump not named Murray if needed).

I definitely think Nylander is of interest for Calgary, just not without Lindholm. Without Lindholm, the Flames are beginning to enter tankville.</div></div>

Fair enough, but what about the rumours about Lindholm wanting out of Calgary next summer? My thinking is similar that they would be foolish to not trade him at some point this season and lose him for nothing. I think they have a much better shot at re-tooling if they start now than to wait until the deadline or go for playoffs. This team simply can't come near the bottom of the standings, if this team goes tank mode without Lindholm, you guys have enough solid players to keep your team from completely bottoming out. I wouldn't even call it a tank, it would be similar to where Nashville is at right now in that middle ground. The Leafs would also be taking on all the risk similar to what you guys did last summer with the Tkachuk trade. Just curious what your thinking is.

I like the return you have made for the return for Toronto in the trade in terms of value, but Leafs really need to swing for the fences I can't see them being overly keen on Backlund. Smart trade though I wouldn't have thought of mixing a third team into it.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2023 at 1:41 p.m.
Thread: Brad Treliving MasterChef
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMDannyB</b></div><div>TK scored at a PPG pace on a terrible team last year. Provy actively nosedived this team the last few years with his terrible play. These two aren’t close to comparable. TK has 2 years left on his deal, they don’t need to move him unless someone meets their asking price and from all of the flyers insiders they are asking for 2 premium pieces and other picks/prospects for TK. Something like two 1sts and a decent prospect or 2 or a 1st, premium prospect and another pick and prospect. There’s also like next to no chance they retain on him that will drive the price up way more. The deal right now is essentially:

Murray and a 3rd to dump Murray
Robertson for 50% retention
Tk for 1st and Brodie

Realistically none of that is even close to enough. Teams know the Leafs are desperate for cap relief so I would ask way more to dump Murray and retain. The flyers have no interest in Brodie and Robertson is always hurt. This trade literally comes down to just a 1st for TK which isn’t close</div></div>

Yeah, I actually had Robertson as the sweetener for Murray because it was reported by David Pagnotta that this is a possibility if the Leafs dump Murray successfully. I basically saw it as Brodie (later trade for a 1st), a 1st and a 3rd. But yeah I can see your point of view. Not sure I totally buy that Provorov can't turn it around on a better team, not easy to hide your mistakes as a defenceman on a weaker team.

I have always liked Konecny and would take him on the Leafs but I'd like to see another point per game season before I'd give up two firsts for a guy hits the open market in two seasons, he's only hit 60 points twice in 7 years. I totally agree however that his production this past season was very impressive. Thank you for sharing!
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2023 at 1:30 p.m.
Thread: Brad Treliving MasterChef
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>ComixZone</b></div><div>Horrible trade for the Flames.</div></div>

Hello ComixZone,

Thank you for the feedback!

Do you think Calgary has any genuine interest in adding William Nylander and extending him as a Flames fan, and if so what would the return be in your opinion if you guys were to sign and trade? I just look at that team and from the outside looking in, they are too good to tank and too weak upfront to lose Lindholm and Backlund for nothing, and I just thought Nylander genuinely fills that whole. If they lose those two centres plus Hanifin in free agency they are in no-man's land with some big money committed to guys like Huberdeau, Kadri, and Weegar. I completely expect some sort of re-tool. Would love to hear your opinion so I can apply it to future ideas.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2023 at 1:26 p.m.
Thread: Brad Treliving MasterChef
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMDannyB</b></div><div>You typed a book and yet all of these trades get easily declined by a team not named Toronto. The flyers trade gets outbid by 30 other teams and probably could even get outbid by some KHL teams the value is that bad</div></div>

Hello GMDannyB,

Thank you for the feedback!

That's fair enough, what return are you expecting for Travis Konecny then? I mentioned that I based this return off of the trade they made where they sent Ivan Provorov to Columbus who had the same remaining term and at a much higher cap-hit. Just curious to hear what a Flyers fan thinks so that I can apply this to future trades. Not sure I agree that Konecny's value is much higher than a top four defenceman in today's tight cap market.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 28, 2023 at 9:09 p.m.
Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs 2023-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>snaper3819</b></div><div>You are correct I could see it work, especially if they can aquire more speed on the wings.

The free agent crop is scarce - so you probably are not getting great value there so the trade front is more applicable. I like Ryan Mcleod in Edmonton - big body and was impressive in playoffs. JT Compher could be option too from COL.

Personally, I think it is time to move on from one of core 4, and my pick would be Marner. Some trade targets for him in return would be:
- Aho (CAR) - signed offer sheet in past, may be able to work out deal if he refuses to sign extention
- Dubois (WIN) - seems he has heart set on habs but if you could convince him
Any trade would obviously need to come with an extension</div></div>

A Mitch Marner trade would be very interesting. Not something I would do myself, but if I was going to move him, I agree I would want a centre. I just can't see Carolina parting ways with their best centre, they don't have much behind him to fill that void once he's gone. I think they might be open to Marner for Svechnikov? Obviously not a centre, but at the very least it could be a conversation starter.

Dubois is one player that I love to watch when he's on but I have concerns about him disappearing from time to time. He's a first line talent, with a great combination of build and skill, but I don't always see the same guy when I watch him play. I know Jets fans have felt the same way at times. I would take Dubois in a trade for Marner but I'd want more plus I'd want the deal signed the moment I trade for him, just so risky given how open he has been about test free agency.

One guy specifically I was always thinking the Leafs could maybe acquire is Elias Lindholm from Calgary, I was thinking about that as a deadline deal, or even in free agency the following summer. This would be an alternative to signing Ryan O'Reilly, you couldn't afford both. I think the likelihood of a Calgary trade skyrockets if Shanahan ends up hiring Treliving, which I personally think is the right move given the experienced GM's available. Him and Hanifin are two guys I think the Leafs could maybe acquire from Calgary and look to extend. Lindholm is a fantastic two-way player, I've always liked him as an elite second-line centre.

Thanks for sharing!
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 28, 2023 at 7:10 p.m.
Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs 2023-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>snaper3819</b></div><div>Very well though out. I understand your thinking on the O'Reilly situation. However in my opinion having both him and Tavares with lacking footspeed was exposed in Florida series. I would let him walk especially with the risk of the contract. I would try to allocate that cap space to a centre with more footspeed.</div></div>

Hello <a href="/users/snaper3819" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@snaper3819</a>,

I really appreciate the feedback!

First, that's a very good point, and one that I definitely have concerns about myself. My main reason for wanting to keep O'Reilly is honestly if Matthews or Tavares go down with injury, he can fill in as a top-six centre better than any other option available on the market. I understand the foot speed conversation, but I think that this can be overcome by playing both Tavares and O'Reilly with quick wingers. I think it's important that the Leafs sign cheaper wingers like Heinen and Cogliano who can skate like the wind to provide team speed in other areas, and we all know that Nylander, Marner, and Robertson can fly.

Who would you consider to be an alternative option? I had looked at the opportunity of maybe signing Erik Haula, as he is a great skater and versatile. My concern with him is again I don't feel as confident using him at centre in the top-six for an extended period of time if Matthews or Tavares were hurt. I'd love to hear what alternatives you would suggest the Leafs look at signing with the $5,875,000 that I have allocated to O'Reilly.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 22, 2023 at 9:07 p.m.
Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs 2023-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RipNasty</b></div><div>You make a lot of sense. I think I would not buyout Murray and instead move Samsonov. 4 million is too much. I would be open to giving him shorter term but right now if we keep him for next season, he's battling Woll for the net. I am not paying a tandem netminder 4 million when he very well could lose the position. If he won't sign for less move him and keep Murray. That saves 2 million, if Samsonov signs for somewhere around 3 or less then you keep him and trade Murray.

Liljegren I hope has progressed enough to warrant a longer term deal in the 4 million range. I agree the rest can be flushed out for not too much but I also think we do need a new element on the defence. I would love a new Muzzin, someone bigger, with an edge but still can make a good pass and create some plays. That will likely cost around 5 million, not Brodie but someone. No idea who. It's all possible with this make up but then it gets harder the next season due to Knies, Marner and Tavares all needing new deals. Yeah JT makes less on his next deal but much of that will likely go to Marner and other defence replacement. Knies I think is going to be a player and one who could warrant a pretty big deal in 3 years.

I think Shanahan is a problem but hopefully he keeps Pridham and does whatever it takes to keep him around, he's a cap wizard and so so smart with how to keep the cap manageable. If we lose him, with the next Regime, we are in huge trouble.</div></div>

I trust in Brendan Shanahan and his decision making process. He has so much respect around the league, we are lucky to have him around in my opinion. Shanahan and Dave Nonis were the ones who hired Brandon Pridham to the organization back in 2014. Shanahan was instrumental in promoting him to Assistant General Manager.

We will definitely see, as <a href="/users/OldNYIfan" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@OldNYIfan</a> has said we can avoid signing Bertuzzi and have that space open for a defencemen next summer or at the trade deadline. Guys like Devon Toews, Noah Hanifin, Nikita Zadorov are free agents in '24, maybe the Leafs even make a move at the upcoming trade deadline or whatever for a top 4 guy.

I'm confident that whoever the Leafs bring in as the new General Manager will be of benefit to the organization. I think so many fans are worried because the news is so fresh and the future of Matthews is uncertain. Let's give it time and see how the next 12 months play out.
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 22, 2023 at 7:24 p.m.
Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs 2023-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Guy goes to the doctor, in a pained voice says, "Doc, it <strong><em><em>hurts</em></em></strong> when I do this {indicating}."
Doctor says, "Don't do that."

Yeah, you can go through all those gyrations next summer. Or, you can not sign Bertuzzi.

That has two benefits, one immediate, one future:

The immediate benefit is that for that $6 million, you can sign (or acquire) three players and run a 23-man roster. You might even limit the expense to $4.5 million or so.

The long term benefit is that with the top 3/4 of your roster already in place (top 9 forwards and top 4 defensemen without Brodie), the urge to replace Brodie with a similar big-ticket RhD will be much reduced.

Killorn would be a great idea if you could sign him for what he's making now ($4.5 million).

By the way, I think that Luke Schenn is going to get about twice what you have him signing for here.</div></div>

Fair enough, I definitely agree about Bertuzzi's injuries. I think Schenn takes the discount, he's already got a house in the city and it's the Leafs.

I like the idea of Killorn, to me we need a genuine top-six left winger to ease the pressure on guys like Robertson, Knies, and even Jarnkrok to produce at that level. I still like Bertuzzi most, but totally see your point of view.

I wouldn't mind even someone like a Connor Brown. He was great for us he always brought 100% effort and he might be even cheaper than expected because of his ACL surgery that kept him out all year in Washington. Proven chemistry with Auston in his rookie year too.

Free agency is relatively weak this year, and is looking to be very good the following year in 2024. Not signing Bertuzzi could allow us to explore options next season in a much more favourable market.

Thanks for sharing!
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 22, 2023 at 6:00 p.m.
Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs 2023-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>OldNYIfan</b></div><div>Well, you'll have Brodie's $5 million coming off the books, so that plus a presumed $1 million cap rise covers the $1.5 million raise to Matthews, the $2.5 million raise to Nylander and the Murray buy-out. The problem is that there's virtually nothing left in the bank with which to replace Brodie, and there's the problem of a 21-man roster, too.

Everything here minus Bertuzzi would be an excellent plan.</div></div>

Hey OldNYIfan,

I really appreciate the feedback!

I do have concerns myself with Tyler Bertuzzi's injury history. I signed him just to shake things up, specifically since he could fill our need at top six left wing. It's also impossible to not overpay on the free market in this day and age. Would you have any other suggestions for that $6,000,000 I gave to him? I was actually decided between him and Killorn and settled on Bertuzzi, I just figured that he has more upside. What I like about Killorn is he has virtually no injury history, he is always healthy and is another heart-and-soul style player. He also would likely be cheaper to sign given his age. Would you prefer Killorn or anyone else to Bertuzzi?
Forum: Armchair-GMMay 22, 2023 at 5:56 p.m.
Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs 2023-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>RipNasty</b></div><div>You probably should have done the math on the next season. There is absolutely no chance they can fit all this in during the 1st year of Matthews and Nylanders deals. Not signing Samsonov or buying out Murray would help but I don't think you can sign Bertuzzi and ROR and pay Nylander and Matthews that much</div></div>

I just realised I forgot to explain the cap situation for next season. My mistake, I realised as soon as I posted this thread.

In the 2024-25 season, if you include the Matthews and Nylander extensions, the Leafs would have $8,105,333 to play with. Pending unrestricted free agents would include T.J. Brodie, Mark Giordano, and Sam Lafferty. Pending restricted free agents would include Nick Robertson and Timothy Liljegren. The team would have 10 forwards, 4 defencemen, and both goaltenders under contract from the previous season, meaning there are 4 roster spots to fill with that $8,000,000. Some of these slots can come in at cheaper rates, depending on the progression of Toronto Marlies prospects and bargain hunting on the open market in free agency for bottom-six and bottom-pairing contributors.

With the UFA's, Mark Giordano is likely retiring. Sam Lafferty is a player I am definitely a fan of, but he is someone we can have walk to the open market if he commands too much money. Brodie will be 34, and I am not totally convinced that he gets anywhere near the $5,000,000 cap hit he is making currently. Potential discounted rate for a player closing in on his late 30's and is from Ontario.

With the RFA's, even in a scenario where Robertson and Liljegren play amazing, they do not have leverage due to their restricted status. Liljegren does have arbitration rights, but I see his cap hit somewhere around $2,500,000 on a 3 yr term given what we have seen from him as of now in his career. I like him as a solid bottom pair option who can fill in up the lineup. Robertson on the other hand has no arbitration rights and significant injury history. I see him taking similar money to the Sandin and Liljegren bridge deals of last off-season. If he lights the league up with our big forwards, he maybe gets more than that but not substantially.

If the Leafs were to sign O'Reilly and Samsonov at the terms and money seen above, I believe both contracts are movable in the following off-season. In the case of Samsonov specfically, we may well see Woll take command in the Leafs net which would give team the flexibility to flip Samsonov to recoup draft selections, and replace him with another platoon 1A / 1B option at a cheaper rate. I'm definitely interested in seeing what Dennis Hildeby does in his first professional season in North America with the Marlies this coming season.

Let me know if this makes sense to you or whether you disagree with the approach. I really appreciate the feedback!
Forum: Armchair-GMMar. 5, 2023 at 12:27 a.m.
Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs 2023-24
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>palhal</b></div><div>You've conveniently left out Muzzin's and Murray's M NTC which would undoubtedly aexclude Arizona trade . Nothing in for Arizona especially if Voracek does stay on LTIR. PS. Teams just can't "park" players on LTIR as you suggest the Leafs do. Either he's not medically fit to play or he's not. And if he's on LTIR....Arizona just keeps him, and more than likely insurance pays his salary.
Teams can certainly exceed the cap by more than 10% if they have players on LTIR during the off season, as the Leafs did for years when Horton and Lupul both were on LTIR.</div></div>
Arizona currently has Voracek on IR, not LTIR, so that his cap hit counts against the cap which raises them to the cap floor. All of Arizona's injured players on big money AAV's are put on injured reserve, it shows everything on this website. Given that Voracek has not officially announced his career is over, I think it would be wise to assume that the 10% rule that the CBA enforces is something the Leafs would have to be cautious about in the circumstance of this trade. With that said, all reports are indicating that Voracek's career is likely over, which is why Arizona acquired him at the deadline. The same can be said about their other recent trade for the Shea Weber contract. I have linked a brief article from CBS sports explaining the Voracek situation that I am referring to below.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/hockey/news/coyotes-jakub-voracek-contract-traded-with-career-likely-over/#:~:text=Voracek%20(concussion)%20is%20not%20expected,in%20exchange%20for%20Jon%20Gillies.

I do agree with you about Muzzin not waiving his contract being a potential issue. I think that he is well-respected within the organization, and the Leafs would be contractually obligated to trade him anywhere other than the teams on his 10-team no trade list. However, if his career is over, in the same situation as Voracek currently is, I think he would consider waiving since it wouldn't even affect his career at that point. In Murray's case, I believe he would likely waive because the alternative would be the Leafs just buy his contract out and he loses out on a few million dollars instead, which would be worse for him anyways.

Thank you for the feedback, I really appreciate it!
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 4, 2023 at 10:40 p.m.
Thread: Toronto Maple Leafs 2022-23
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>GMBL</b></div><div>The condition is strange on the Nyquist pick, it should be that the pick upgrades if Nyquist plays a certain percentage of the Leafs' games, otherwise there is no benefit for CBJ. Should probably be that CBJ gets a 2nd in addition to the 4th (or have the original pick as a 5th).</div></div>

You may be right that the conditions would be reversed. I remember when Dubas acquired Riley Nash from Columbus at the 2021 trade deadline under the same circumstances that they gave them a conditional 2022 7th Round Pick, which would become a 2022 6th Round Pick if Nash were to play in greater than 25% of Toronto's playoff games. Nash ended up playing those games and the pick was upgraded. That being said, in either circumstance Columbus benefits from getting draft capital in return for an overpaid injured player on an expiring deal.