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Forum: Armchair-GMJan 23 at 11:01
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>his production is better because his line mates are better.
He can't skate. I don't know why you argue that. He's slow. He's not winning a foot race anytime soon.
Scoring goals and being a skater are two different things. He has a whole system build around his shot. He's like the only player in the whole league who has a whole system rotating around him. If you don't see that you are blind. And I'm not knocking it because it works. But he absolutely can not skate. There is no way in hell you would put him one to one with dozens of players in this league. He'd get smoked. Why do you have a hard time admitting that. He's 235-240 lbs at 34 years old. He can't move.
He plays best with other people who pull traffic and he finds open ice to shoot. If his linemates can't create space, he's done because he can't create it himself.
Much like their power play works. 4 guys go the one side of the ice and he waits on the other side for the puck while the defense is pulled over. That's what he does. It's why you find him just standing there on the ice a lot not moving his feet. Just waiting in one area maybe drifting slightly but never really working on the play.
He has a great shot so it works for them. But when you are using a forward almost in the role of a defenseman you begin to see the fact that he doesn't have any real foot speed. And if it's bad now how bad is it gonna be in 3 years.
You never see him working like most top forwards do. Be it McDavid, Crosby, McKinnon, Matthews you name it. They are all over the ice, below the goal line, in the scrum looking for the puck, grinding. Honestly when was the last time you really saw OV working the puck below the goal line. Like never. They would never let him down there because he can't get back and everyone knows it. He's too slow to play a real 200 foot game.
That's what happens when you are 235-240 lbs trying to keep up with track stars.
If he weighted 200lbs maybe he'd be a bit faster and skate better. Especially in his 35+ years. But he's yet to show he's willing to do that. So much like every other player in the whole league at 240lbs he's left in the smoke. Even Wilson who is 6'5 only weighs like 220lbs. Because he knows his game relies on speed. And he's one of the tallest guys in the league at 6'5. He's got 2 inches on OV and is years younger.
If you want OV to actually have foot speed it starts with a 30lb weight loss.
Because it doen't matter how "productive" you are, when the other team is able to skate right past you at will all the time and the line he's on is coughing up more goals than it's scoring. You can't leave the other 4 guys basically 5 v 4. And the slower he gets the more it's evident.
It's like looking at Chara now. When the game was slower 3 years ago he looked fine. But the game speed up and he became a pylon out there. Old slow and not a guy you wanted in a position where he had to go back into his own end from the Ozone. He became a PK guy defensive start guy. He's at the highest rate of defensive starts in his whole career now because they know he can't move. Even playing a 160foot game doesn't work for him anymore. The games too fast.

So yeah, it's great he's productive in a system that revolves around him. But I hate to break it to you, he's not far away from them not being able to hide the fact that's he's one of the slowest guys on the ice at this point in the game. The whole league is moving into defensemen with speed and who can move. A lot of them could beat OV in a foot race at this point.
So unless he's dropping 30lbs don't expect much of a change. He won't be worth 10 million in a couple of years. To pay him that till he's 40 is a complete and total waste of money. He shouldn't be signed to more than a 2 year deal. Much like players like Joe Thornton signed year to year or Chara on his two year deals. You just don't sign guys who can't move to 5 year deals.</div></div>

I'm not arguing with you about the 1v1 play, but you named 4 centers as playing a full 200 ft game. Of course they play more below the goal lines they are centers. Even the best defensive wingers like Mark Stone aren't backtracking all the way to their own goalline, they stick with their point men most of the time. Caps PP is set up for him everyone knows that so thats not the argument at all. You keep harping on the fact that he is just a PP guy with everything set up for him, then how come he is 2nd in the league in Even Strength Goals? His linemates have always been good. Backstrom or kuznetsov for the last 12-13 years plus a decent winger at worst. And for the record I don't want him to sign some 5+ year deal. But he definately is not in the Thornton/Chara category for a 1 or 2 year deal. They've only been signing those since they hit 38+ years old. He scored his first goal against Carolina the other night beating a guy off the wall towards the net, get the pass and scores. That's a pure small area foot speed play and shooting in stride, not standing still. By no means is he a fast player anymore, but hes not the standstill PP guy that most thought he would be by now.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 22 at 10:16
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>pharrow</b></div><div>According to Hockey-Reference OV is a - in 5v5 play by I think 5 goals or something.
That's what I refer too. You can't be coughing up more than you are producing as a top line.
That's not PP or PK time that's 5v5 play.

That's where you first start to see decline in players. When you stop being the guy that dominates 5v5 play.
You could see it in players like Kessel. His 5v5 numbers were tanking he became a power play guy. And that has basically panned out.
It's not different here. He's 34. The effectiveness at 5v5 play is starting to show. It's not horrible by any means at this point. But I wouldn't hold my breath on it improving with age.
He's on pace to give up a career high GAIO.
While he's been a consistent +10 guy most of his career. That looks to be changing. You can't really blame the rest of the team around him. It's not like there isn't help there. He's got the same guys, they are all still relatively younger players.
As far as his corsi, his last 4 years in 5v5 play he's basically a 50% corsi player. He doesn't dominate possession while on the ice.

The numbers are what they are. My point being don't expect improvement on them at 35+. They only have one direction to really go.
So why sign a guy to 5 years till he's 40. That's just nuts and a mistake in the waiting. He's got his use on the ice. He has a great shot, could be a power play guy till he's 40. But his 5v5 play is going to be a problem much sooner than that. Like just about every player in the league past 35.
There really aren't a lot of guys playing top line minutes at 35+ anymore. It's too hard to keep your speed up at that age.</div></div>

Ovi is second in the league in Even strength goals... I understand the power play specialist maybe in 5 years, but the guy has been top 3 in the league Even strength goal for the last 3 years. I thinking 3 or 4 years at 10M is no problem. That'd be a much lower percentage cap hit then he signed for his current deal. And if he cant skate, please watch the Islanders game on 1/18/20 with 23 Mins of ice time. He will slow down, but hes 34 and his 32-34 years have been better than his 30-32 years production wise.
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 17 at 4:28
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 17 at 1:48
Forum: Armchair-GMJan 15 at 3:36