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gdli

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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2023 at 9:35 p.m.
Thread: KAndre - Laffy Part 1
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Onlyfairtrades1</b></div><div>Oh I see, so now it's not one offer sheet, it's two. LOL. Sure, real good chance of happening. Sorry I commented at all on this nonsense.</div></div>

I can't wait to read the next response, that is what the Part II is about (yet to be posted, but coming soon to a theater near you), the flip side, only this time it's K'Andre instead of Laffy. If the Rangers sign Scanlin, Emberson and Pajuniemi to 2 year $775K deals, they have just over $6M of CAP space to deal with Laffy and K'Andre. Now you find yourself facing competing offer sheets for both and you have to choose to retain one or the other, and K'Andre is the keeper what do you expect in return for Laffy's rights? No platitudes, please. I know what the players and Ranger management have stated, but that is for public consumption.

How high would you go for Laffy before retaining K'Andre becomes untenable under any circumstances, and vice versa?

So the situation is you are backed into a corner and have to trade Laffy's Signing Rights, What do you ask for in return? That's the Question.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2023 at 5:33 p.m.
Thread: 2025-26
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HOCKEYBOY448</b></div><div>I wonder if there’s a way to retain $2.5 mil on Trouba and trade him. He’d have to waive but it’d give us another $1.5 mil in cap space. Might be wishful thinking but I hope in 2025-26 both Sykora and Perrault can make the team cause that’d go a long way in giving us more flexibility. I wonder if we could Lindgren locked up to the Cernak contract at $5.25 mil. $6 mil is a little scary given his play style, but he is the lynchpin of the defense core. Instead of taking back Coyle I wonder if just retaining 50% on Panarin would work for a trade. He’d be at $5.8-5.9 mil for the last year of his deal and that should squeak out another $1-2 mil in cap space as well. I looked at the other post and I do think Stephenson will be closer to a $7-8 mil player on his next deal. But with Chytil and Trocheck I’m not as worried. The key for this team is really going to come down to the development of Othmann, Cuylle, Berard, Perrault and Sykora. Those guys flourish and we could be in a solid spot. If they struggle and Kakko, Chytil and Laf are unable to take the next step, then we might be in some serious trouble. Hopefully they can iron out the awful development issues so we can end up with less Ryan Gropp’s &amp; Dylan Mcilrath’s and more Ryan Callahan’s &amp; Pavel Buchnevich’s.</div></div>

Just posted a hypothetical team "What to do." I am really looking forward to the responses.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2023 at 5:10 p.m.
Thread: 2025-26
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gdli</b></div><div>For starters, I was alerted to the fact that Stephenson will command more like $7M. I overlooked the fact that he is a late bloomer, posting consecutive 60 point seasons with Vegas. However, that does not negate what I was attempting to demonstrate.

If you could trade Trouba, I would do it. But contract wise, Trouba has always been about Trouba. His contract was predicated by his wife's Medical School agenda. She finished up a year or so ago. A trade would be better for sure.

Re: Lindgren, I might be a tad high. $5.25M is a reasonable alternative. Re: Panarin salary retention: I considered as high as 50%, I'll have to explore that further, but it certainly isn't out of the question.

Regarding the kids in the pipeline, a share your sentiment completely. Although as you point out, they have a bad track record with prospects in their system. I thought it best, for my purposes, to stick with NHL'ers to simplify matters.

I'm not worried about Chytil or Trocheck either.

I believe I found a ***** in CapFriendly's armor. When I bought out Trouba and Goodrow for 24-25, the buyout numbers were correct. But for 25-26, CapFriendly assumes that the buyout is occurred in the year you are working. I could find no way to demonstrate accurate numbers for a buyout that occurred in a prior year. But I created a spreadsheet with accurate numbers, and the math worked.

As always, you provide thoughtful and insightful commentary that I appreciate. I'm going to go back to the drawing board later today. I have a nice seafood lunch planned before I can resume. Have a great day. Looking forward to our next exchange.</div></div>

BTW - The Alaska King Crab Claws were not cheap, but they were delicious. A belated lunch (by four months) to mark my 72nd birthday.

As they like to say in the nation's capital, I'd like to revise and extend my remarks.

Now down to business. As things stand at this moment, the Rangers need to resolve the Laffy - K'Andre and possibly the Goodrow issues before trying to project future years. They have just a bit more than $6M to work with. I always like to leave $1M or so to give a GM some room to maneuver during the season. In my mind, there is really just $5M to work with. It's been "all quiet on the western front since the free agency window opened. Here's what I think is going on.

The Trouba and Goodrow contracts make more sense to buyout next year. That said, the I am sure the Rangers are shopping Goodrow. Maybe Anaheim in a reverse cap dump to enable the Ducks to reach the CAP floor. And I would be all for a Trouba trade, if possible, this year. That would go a long way toward retaining both K'Andre and Laffy.

K'Andre and Laffy are both likely to receive competing offer sheets. With only $5M or so ($6M, and probably less than that at most) to work with. Unless both are willing to take less to stay with the Rangers, you will have to decide which one you want to keep. Until this is resolved, trying to project the out years is a bit of a guessing game (although I intend to tinker with this problem). I will re-visit the out years at that time. Ranger management may also be shopping both to gauge interest in helping the decision-making process. I know what the pronouncements have been, but they are always for public consumption. There are a lot of moving parts potentially.

Some further comments on your earlier response: Lindgren at $5.25M seems to be right in the middle of most of the estimates I've seen. And after some considerable reflection, I'm convinced your estimate is correct.

I also intend to use the 25 to 50 percent retained salary of a final year trade of the Breadman. The closer to 25%, the better. As a said in an earlier post on another thread, who the idiot who agreed to a buyout scenario where you could reduce to CAP by $300K to a meager $11.3M.

Finally, Chandler Stephenson is off the table. That was clearly an oversight on my part.

Stay tuned!!!
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2023 at 12:00 p.m.
Thread: skyrooo
$112,084 CAP space is way light. Drury needs some room to maneuver during the season.

This really come down to what happens with Laffy and K'Andre. The numbers you propose are reasonable, I'd go $2.3M on Laffy, but why quibble.

I personally believe the Rangers are looking to trade Laffy. Both K'Andre and Laffy are offer sheet candidates. And therein lies the problem. If you have to pick one. which one?

And it doesn't get any better next year when the contracts of Lindgren, Kakko, and Schneider are up for renewal.

This is what happens when you are saddled with awful contracts. Panarin, Trouba and Goodrow immediately come to mind.

If you were to buyout Panarin in the final year of his contract, you would reduce his CAP hit by $300K to a modest $11.3M. Now who was the idiot in the Ranger front office who agreed to that?

Take away Trouba's spectacular hits and look at his stats. Schneider could fill his shoes at a far more reasonable cost in my view.

And then there is Barclay. $3.6+M for an average of 9 goals and 26 points. I don't care what his intangibles are. But to minimize the impact of a buyout, you have to wait until next year. It either that or a CAP dump with Anaheim to enable the Ducks to reach the league CAP floor. You can throw in a couple of used puck bags, compliments of the Charlestown Chiefs to sweeten the deal.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2023 at 11:01 a.m.
Thread: 2025-26
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>HOCKEYBOY448</b></div><div>I wonder if there’s a way to retain $2.5 mil on Trouba and trade him. He’d have to waive but it’d give us another $1.5 mil in cap space. Might be wishful thinking but I hope in 2025-26 both Sykora and Perrault can make the team cause that’d go a long way in giving us more flexibility. I wonder if we could Lindgren locked up to the Cernak contract at $5.25 mil. $6 mil is a little scary given his play style, but he is the lynchpin of the defense core. Instead of taking back Coyle I wonder if just retaining 50% on Panarin would work for a trade. He’d be at $5.8-5.9 mil for the last year of his deal and that should squeak out another $1-2 mil in cap space as well. I looked at the other post and I do think Stephenson will be closer to a $7-8 mil player on his next deal. But with Chytil and Trocheck I’m not as worried. The key for this team is really going to come down to the development of Othmann, Cuylle, Berard, Perrault and Sykora. Those guys flourish and we could be in a solid spot. If they struggle and Kakko, Chytil and Laf are unable to take the next step, then we might be in some serious trouble. Hopefully they can iron out the awful development issues so we can end up with less Ryan Gropp’s &amp; Dylan Mcilrath’s and more Ryan Callahan’s &amp; Pavel Buchnevich’s.</div></div>

For starters, I was alerted to the fact that Stephenson will command more like $7M. I overlooked the fact that he is a late bloomer, posting consecutive 60 point seasons with Vegas. However, that does not negate what I was attempting to demonstrate.

If you could trade Trouba, I would do it. But contract wise, Trouba has always been about Trouba. His contract was predicated by his wife's Medical School agenda. She finished up a year or so ago. A trade would be better for sure.

Re: Lindgren, I might be a tad high. $5.25M is a reasonable alternative. Re: Panarin salary retention: I considered as high as 50%, I'll have to explore that further, but it certainly isn't out of the question.

Regarding the kids in the pipeline, a share your sentiment completely. Although as you point out, they have a bad track record with prospects in their system. I thought it best, for my purposes, to stick with NHL'ers to simplify matters.

I'm not worried about Chytil or Trocheck either.

I believe I found a ***** in CapFriendly's armor. When I bought out Trouba and Goodrow for 24-25, the buyout numbers were correct. But for 25-26, CapFriendly assumes that the buyout is occurred in the year you are working. I could find no way to demonstrate accurate numbers for a buyout that occurred in a prior year. But I created a spreadsheet with accurate numbers, and the math worked.

As always, you provide thoughtful and insightful commentary that I appreciate. I'm going to go back to the drawing board later today. I have a nice seafood lunch planned before I can resume. Have a great day. Looking forward to our next exchange.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 9, 2023 at 12:13 a.m.
Thread: 2024-25
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>gdli</b></div><div>Re: Chandler Stephenson - He's a late bloomer (60+ points in his last two seasons, but not much before that). I missed that. I couldn't figure out why he was paid so little. You are correct. I'll have to go back to the drawing board on that one. $7M sounds about right to me.

I like Schneider a lot, but he won't get anything close to what you are proposing. Perhaps something closer to $3M if the CAP space is there. Look at the available CAP space in my proposal, you would break the CAP ceiling big time. He'll get a bridge deal this time around and hit the lottery next time around. Let's see what he does with K'Andre at RD2 before showering him with the cash. I think he's up to, I'm a big fan of his. But I want to see he demonstrate the same effectiveness. against tougher competition first. He is a far better, and more cost-effective solution than Trouba in my view.

Appreciate the feedback!</div></div>

I have removed Chandler Stephenson from the roster. Now I have to re-visit K'Andre, Beraden, and Alexis. Stay tuned.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 8, 2023 at 11:30 p.m.
Thread: 2024-25
Re: Chandler Stephenson - He's a late bloomer (60+ points in his last two seasons, but not much before that). I missed that. I couldn't figure out why he was paid so little. You are correct. I'll have to go back to the drawing board on that one. $7M sounds about right to me.

I like Schneider a lot, but he won't get anything close to what you are proposing. Perhaps something closer to $3M if the CAP space is there. Look at the available CAP space in my proposal, you would break the CAP ceiling big time. He'll get a bridge deal this time around and hit the lottery next time around. Let's see what he does with K'Andre at RD2 before showering him with the cash. I think he's up to, I'm a big fan of his. But I want to see he demonstrate the same effectiveness. against tougher competition first. He is a far better, and more cost-effective solution than Trouba in my view.

Appreciate the feedback!