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lrw2105
Member Since
Jun. 12, 2021
Forum Posts
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ARMCHAIR-GM TEAMS
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 12, 2022 at 2:09 p.m.
Thread:
Deadline
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>SK101</b></div><div>A first for Gavrikov is fine. Take out foegele and the jackets accept.</div></div>
Slightly extended version of this:
1st for Gav is fine. (We can even retain on his contract as well if necessary, without adds.)
2nd for Nyquist is fine.
Puljujarvi as a throw-in is fine.
Foegele is 100% not fine because he has that extra year on his contract and he's at a position we don't need more of. Extra compensation is required if we are to take him on - and Puljujarvi doesn't count as "extra compensation" from the Jackets' viewpoint because Puljujarvi would be a brief experiment we potentially just throw away at the end of the year.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 12, 2022 at 2:08 p.m.
Thread:
Horvat Most Sensible
Not the avs. They aren’t moving their best prospects for a for they can’t sign
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 12, 2022 at 3:11 p.m.
Thread:
Horvat Most Sensible
So the most sensible move is for COL to trade their top forward prospect, top d prospect and there only pick in the first 5 rounds of two drafts for a guy they have zero chance of re-signing because the cap you know exists. COL isn’t doing that.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 12, 2022 at 4:13 p.m.
Thread:
Horvat Most Sensible
These Horvat to Colorado trades always make sense for Vancouver, never for Colorado.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 12, 2022 at 3:54 p.m.
Thread:
Horvat with extension
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>for col, horvat could only be a rental. also, if they trade their 23 1st, they won't have a draft pick in 2 drafts above a 5th - their pipeline is running dry, contenders rely on elc's overperforming to contend, and this is a fo that employs the analyst who wrote the studies on aging curves. doesn't make sense for col to trade the 23 1st (let alone a roster player on an elc who is playing decent but not so well so as to need a hefty next contract) for a player they can't re-sign. horvat to col trades would be more interesting if they addressed hovat's rental price or how an extended horvat could possibly fit in upcoming seasons ...
JToews a more likely col target if he is willing to wield his nmc to keep his price down.</div></div>
That's an excellent point you make. Good teams need to fill their roster with NHL capable ELCs...who can play above their contracts. Good teams are paying established so much of the cap, that the only way to be contending is having those low priced gems.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 12, 2022 at 3:19 p.m.
Thread:
Wishful thinking TDL
Don’t think this is a deal the Avs would go for. They LOVE compher and don’t think they deal their top Prospect and a 1st for a guy who doesn’t really fit their system.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 28, 2022 at 11:27 a.m.
Thread:
Interesting Trade Concept
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>don't think barbashev is at the age-potential calibre of player ana would be looking for if they were to move comtois, even w/o taking scandella's contract into consideration. but all speculation of course.</div></div>
Yeah, at the end of the day these posts are purely “what-if” but that’s fair. I really hope the Ducks don’t ship off Gibson to COL or TOR. I’m hoping for devils if he moves at all
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 28, 2022 at 11:19 a.m.
Thread:
Interesting Trade Concept
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>heard rumors that Comtois is indeed available, in the Necas/Gurianov mode - team willing to move on a young underperforming almost-but-not-quite former bluechipper either in a change of scenery trade for a similar one, or as part of a bigger package to net a potential difference-maker.</div></div>
Yeah, my idea here was that Barbashev going to Anaheim would be that difference-maker. He’s 27 when the contract expires, not young, but not old. Resigning in Anaheim for a long term contract would then give Anaheim a guy who has been in the playoffs, who’s put up 60 points, who is a good forechecker, and probably a good leader for some young players.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 22, 2022 at 10:42 a.m.
Thread:
Necas Girard
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>Sometimes it can make sense to overpay, esp. for contenders - Tampa for Goodrow, Coleman, Hagel; COL for Kuemper (if he can get it back together for the rest of the scf). Not sure tho, if/when CAR will do so ... wonder tho if it might make sense so for a goal-scorer this offseason ...
Brannstrom or Ty Smith could be a buy low PMD candidates for CAR, tho maybe they'd want someone proven at this stage of contention window.
EDIT - these wouldn't be for Necas - more underperforming young defense that i could see CAR buying low on
Necas (and Gurianov, Comtois) might look great in COL's system - but the team doesn't really have the trade chips for under performing former bluechippers that they used to have ...</div></div>
Yeah, I was really surprised to hear Necas potentially being moved for a D. I'd rather run it back w/ TDA at least on a 1 year deal around $4-5m which gets him to UFA next year and focus on top 6 goal scoring like you mentioned. That's the biggest glaring need for our team. Guys like Debrincat, Pasta, Forsberg, etc. fit the bill but don't necessarily jive with how CAR FO does business. I've always said their FO should alter their strategy as we got into true contender status from where we were a few years ago because needs change and now the goal should be to win a cup even if it means giving up some nice future pieces.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 22, 2022 at 10:08 a.m.
Thread:
Necas Girard
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>Think COL would only move Girard this offseason for quite an overpay, so the plus to Necas would need to be significantly more than a second rounder, and CAR's FO isn't into overpaying. If the cost weren't an overpay, it would be for a Girard-esque player (young, proven NHL'er, good contract for years to come) who can be a more reliable 2C than COL's current, non-Kadri options.</div></div>
Yep - that's fair. Girard on his contract is super valuable so understand why it would require an overpay. This was more driven off of Lebrun's report and me trying to brainstorm who those young D could be that moved the needle if we were to trade Necas.
Trade aside - Necas in COL system with their skill & speed would probably be amazing. I'd hate to lose him because I think he probably thrives wherever he ends up going but that would be something to see. Think he fits their system perfectly.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 12, 2022 at 8:19 a.m.
Thread:
Canes head of scouting at CBJ game
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>Gavrikov, his play and contract term and aav, would be an excellent fit on a contender. However, CBJ values him tremendously and they are keeping quality vets who want to be there as they rebuild. Do not think they would move him except for a significant overpay such as 1st + or bluechip prospect+, which Suzuki and Bokk are generally not considered to be right now. This trade makes sense in terms of Gavrikov's de-contextualized value, but not in terms of his value to CBJ.</div></div>
Yep. We'd want more and better. It boils down to the fact that Gavrikov is our best defensive D (and, outside of a still-developing Peeke, arguably our <strong>only</strong> one), so we can't afford to lose him unless we're getting something really special back.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 8, 2022 at 1:07 a.m.
Thread:
1 step back 2 steps forward
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeautifulIdiot</b></div><div>ok, what about it don't you like? what should I change?</div></div>
To be honest I see where you're coming from, but you have to take Byram out of the deal with no replacement. Barron, Jost, 1st is a very solid package for Miller. Avs could add a pick or a prospect for Motte
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Mar. 7, 2022 at 6:48 p.m.
Thread:
We should consider a 1 year deal for Anton Forsberg and a buyout for Matt Murray
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>Wouldn't Forsberg have leverage for more? have heard that the Brassoit contract is his comparable</div></div>
Forsberg has never received an extension that is either more than 2 years long or that is worth 1 million per year..
Throughout his career, his goaltending has been rather inconsistent and he has often found himself either on waivers or in the AHL.
If a player is at his best with one team but not any other, it severely limits whatever leverage he might have.
Ryan Dzingel is one example of this and I'm inclined to think that Forsberg is another.
I'd be rather surprised if Forsberg got something like what Brossoit got with Vegas.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 27, 2022 at 10:00 a.m.
Thread:
Claude Giroux
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>Think this is exactly what PHI wants for Giroux, but unless there is a bidding war (and COL seems to be the Western conference contender w/need for a high-end playmaking winger - MIN needs a center and STL defense), think the formula might be that PHI gets their choice of 2023 1st/Barron/Jost, not all three. Also wonder if Sakic would even be up for a bidding war. He usually drops out, except for Kuemper, which might signal that he is this season ...
w/o a bidding war, the other players/assets might then alter in value based on PHI's initial choice:
23 2nd + Helleson + Jost
23 1st + Kaut/Ranta + Compher
Barron + Bowers + Murray
At this price, if the fit's right, wonder if COL would think abt offering Giroux the Pavelski contract (3x7) while letting Kadri and Burakovsky walk in the offseason.</div></div>
Not sure if the Avs could afford to do it even with not signing Bura & Kadri with the contracts due to come but might be possible. Nichushkin - Newhook - Giroux wouldn't be a bad second line and CG could certainly help take some pressure off Newhook.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Feb. 6, 2022 at 4:39 p.m.
Thread:
Anaheim one-stop-shop
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>How teams value/evaluate other teams' prospects is interesting and difficult to gauge. Heard rumors that ANA is higher on Kaut than is COL. Would think Beaucage might have more value to a team that plays w/less than COL.</div></div>
Yeah I wouldn't be surprised if Anaheim like Kaut, his best comparable in the NHL has always been Silfverberg imo who has done very well there. Kaut plays a very similar heavy two-way game as a complementary forward on a line and would fit Anaheim's style well.
Colorado are probably best off holding onto Beaucage and seeing if he can hit another level in the AHL over the course of the next 1-2 years or so. He's on an ELC until 2024 so they've got time to be patient. But long-term I don't see him being a fit for the style Colorado play, he'll probably end up being a trade-chip if he does well.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 26, 2022 at 5:24 p.m.
Thread:
Rebuild TDL
The Pens trade is interesting, but here's a few things...
1) Hextall has been adamant that he's not moving the Pens' 1st or 2nd picks, so if he somehow softened on the 2nd I think it would be for a bigger deal than this.
2) I think that's a tad too much for Kubalik. The shine has worn off on him a bit, so I'm not saying he doesn't get you a 2nd, but I don't know that every team would do that.
3) The Pens can't afford the deal as-is since they have no cap space. They have zero cap space and even with the mid-season proration you'd need to either retain and/or take some back.
I'd say the best the Pens can probably offer is a 3rd, Aston-Reese + prospect. Something along those lines, which is not an attempt to low-ball. It's just a reality of the Pens situation and what Hextall would likely give up.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 13, 2022 at 3:05 p.m.
Thread:
Unfair D Core
Too little, IMO. I could see you saying no to including Jarvis, but I'd imagine Drury would have to headline it. Suzuki and Bokk just don't have the ceiling to headline, IMO.
Maybe: Drury+1st+2nd+Cole+B prospect?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 13, 2022 at 3:20 p.m.
Thread:
Simpler off season
So your supposition is that Hertl is going to forgo the possibility of a long-term contract in FA to "see how things go" with the Sharks. Why would he do that? What if he signs a two-year deal and things don't work out? Now he's two years older (30) and may not get term from another team. Or if he gets injured sometime over that contract? What if it's career-ending? With guaranteed contracts, players are all about security and Hertl is right at that point where he could reasonably ask for a 7-8 year deal in the $7-8M range. Forgoing that kind of security just to see if the Sharks can get back to being a playoff team, let alone a contender and soon is, to say the least, risky. I mean, honestly, would you do that?
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jan. 9, 2022 at 4:27 p.m.
Thread:
Cap-testing
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>Based on Montreal-based writers (Basu, Godin, LeBrun) Price at 50% retained seems to be attractive to contenders, and the names that keep coming up are COL and EDM. Price seems to want out, with a rebuild on the horizon, Bergavin gone, and his willingness to waive for expansion, and seeing how Gorton treated Lundqvist at the end. Since PLB is one of the few insiderzzz that Sakic talks to, COL has no NHL roster goalie's signed for next year, and the team for all their extremely smart analytical moves (Toews, Nichushkin, Burakovsky, Girard) has a streak of old school hockey in their decision-making (MacDermid) their could conceivably be a fit there, in spite of most most of the unlikely agms, there might be something to SevenLeg 's thought experiment ... GMs do love Price, esp. after the last play-off run, even if I'm in agreement with xqb15a and coga16 that based on his last several regular seasons, injury history, and current health difficulties, COL shouldn't take the risk.
General thoughts:
1. This would have to be an off-season trade, as Price would have to 'prove' mental and physical health by playing games this season.
2. 50% for 4 years is A LOT to retain even for a rebuilding team with deep pockets, and MON would much prefer to take bad money back instead. Thing is, COL doesn't really have any - EJohnson's contract isn't long enough, he is valued so highly by the org for whom he just did a solid waiving his NMC for expansion, and he has a modified NTC which most likely has all Canadian teams on it. This makes EDM a more likely partner than COL, if MON took on some combination of Smith, Ceci, Barrie, Klefbom.
3. COL's cap structure means that they don't want to pay more than 5.5 for a starter - why they wouldn't bring back Grubauer. It's hard to get a starter for that, but Price at 50% fits. COL is a very disciplined abt cap structure and isn't willing to deviate until they get MacK re-signed. However, Kuemper isn't yet playing himself into more than a 5.5 contract, and the team had wanted him for awhile and paid a lot to get him. Francouz is looking good (and before he got hurt 2 seasons ago was challenging Grubauer for the starter role), has an opportunity this season to demonstrate health and reliability, and wouldn't be due a large contract next year because he's been out for so long. Depending on how the season and play-offs go, one of them could be well positioned to be the starter for the next several years at a price point that fits COL's cap structure. There is the 'COL effect' of how goalies look behind the team, front offices are noticing the difference between Grubauer from COL->SEA, and COL doesn't want to pay for this glow up.
4. COL don't have LTI contracts to shift, which MON would want since they will be in LTI for a while with Weber - depending on Klefbom's status, EDM might.
5. Price ages 35-39 at 5.25mil for 4 years with an NMC and an un-buyout-able contract is a big risk - with it looking likely that games in Canada may end up having to be played w/o gate revenue, the cap won't rise as quickly as the league seemed to think in the autumn. His contract is also signing bonus heavy, something COL's ownership doesn't like. If by season's end one of Kuemper or Francouz look like a reliable starter for less than 5.25x4, then COL is in a position to be choosy.
6. Price has to want out for the trade to happen, and Gorton/Molson/MON have to REALLY want him out in order to retain so much for so long. Moving Price would be a signature move of the new regime, and I think it would be hard for them to do PR wise w/o getting back what looks like a prime return, and based on the above, I don't think COL would be willing to give that.
TLDR - a COL-MON Price trade might be somewhat conceivable, but probably not on terms that most MON fans would like.</div></div>
That was a thoughtful and well nuanced post. Thanks for this read. The trade above was just a cap experiment to prove a point, I'm not saying this should be a move COL 100% make but I'm willing to die on the hill that Price at 50% is a valuable piece.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Dec. 2, 2021 at 1:53 p.m.
Thread:
If Lou gave out cheaper UFA contracts
To me it all comes back to JGP. He's a good player, but signing him meant losing Toews. Essentially they traded a 1st and Toews for JGP and a 2nd.
Yes they took a shot at the Cup with the JGP trade, and I can respect that. In 20-20 hindsight though, it's tough to say they aren't in better shape with Toews and Greig in the system vs JGP and whoever the 2nd turn into.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Aug. 9, 2021 at 10:47 a.m.
Thread:
3 way
Idk what to make of the Eichel trade. On the one hand is not four firsts, on the other IMO is pretty fair value for him rn.
The one thing I don't see is the Vegas trade. If they weren't willing to deal Krebs for Eichel, I don't see any way they move him for Zibanejad without an extension.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jul. 16, 2021 at 8:15 p.m.
Thread:
Landeskog sings the Blues
Great framework on the Jones trade. Most ones I see on here either (a) someone trading the farm; or, (b) doofuses thinking they can get him for just a 1st. Neither of which is likely to happen.
Any way to get Newhook from you guys? I thought I had heard that’s who CBJ was targeting.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 24, 2021 at 3:20 p.m.
Thread:
Jack to the Canes
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>lrw2105</b></div><div>Thanks! You're probably right w/r/t to Necas - or you should be right, though I wonder if MN is valued more by CAR than league-wide ... Beyond MN's value to CAR, I just couldn't see how the cap would work w/o shifting more, and some of that cap from BUF's perspective should need to come from a valuable player like Trocheck in order not to be offset with more picks. Do wonder if another pick/prospect would need to be added to balance for Gardiner.</div></div>
Wouldn’t be surprised is CAR valued Necas more than across the league. When watching him play you can easily see super star attributes if he continues to develop and he’s team controlled for a long time which is very important. Hard to part with him even if you may be getting back a better players bc of his team control and potentially lighter cap hit down the road.
In terms of Gardiner, he’ll likely be LTIR next season based on recent comments suggesting another back surgery is in his future. If that’s the case the Canes don’t need to offset any cap space or sweeten the pot for BUF to take him.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 24, 2021 at 2:55 p.m.
Thread:
Jack to the Canes
Very well thought out and done, good work. Few thoughts.
Would prefer to move on from McGinn (or move Fast) and use that money plus some cap space to target somebody with more offensive upside (Tatar seemingly would be a good fit with his style of play and analytics that the Canes would love or somebody else in the 3-3.5M range on a shorter term deal like Hoffman, Granlund, etc).
Would also want an improvement on the bottom pair - couple ways to make this happen. Slot Bean up to second pair playing with Pesce and hope that he continues to develop both physically and mentally. Move Skjei for picks and use the cap space to get somebody like Oleksiak and a better RD than Hakanpaa (Hjalm, Mike Reilly, Osterle, Bogosian, etc.)
Still think BUF ultimately wants Necas as part of the deal which if that’s the case is too rich for me personally. Would also rather keep Jarvis and send Suzuki but would be fine with either if this is the deal.
Forum:
Armchair-GM
Jun. 15, 2021 at 3:26 p.m.
Thread:
If VAN is disciplined enough to build around Pettersson-Hughes age window
Had a similar proposal in my AGM: https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/2474554
Avs would have to shed more salary, but I think there's a fit.
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