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mdeason99

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Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 11, 2019 at 11:00 a.m.
Thread: Im going there
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mdeason99</b></div><div>I understand everyone is a little angry about losing to a crappy rangers team, but I think every player (except prob marleau and brown) looked like they were trying. And hey if the efforts there and they got like 55 shots or whatever it was I'm okay with that. It's the games against Colorado, Detroit and Nashville where every single player looked like they didn't give a crap, that's what makes me angry.. the lack of effort</div></div>

Oh, I agree with this 100%. Just given how fickle us leaf fans can be, I'm trying to gently judge the general blame away from specifc players and shift it to a possibility that babcock could be making better choices. I mean, I think we've gone 6-3-1 in the last 10. The wheels aren't coming off the bus, but a couple wheel nuts might be loose..??
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 11, 2019 at 10:32 a.m.
Thread: Im going there
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Jamiepo</b></div><div>The issue is Reilly and Gardiner we’re both at 25 min and everyone else was at 15-18min. I still stick to my guns that D pairs would be better this way...

Reilly-Zaitsev (yet another flawless game last night by Z)
Dermott-Muzzin (I know that Gards replaces Dermott)
Gardiner-Oz (give hainsey a break and split 50/50)

Top pair 24 min
2nd pair 22 min
3rd pair 14 min

Gards gets PP time.</div></div>

That could very well work too. I guess I'm starting to think of it like this... sure, they lost last night, and you can add that up to a hot goalie, puck luck, whatever... but in a paralell universe somewhere the coach makes some changes pre/mid game and a different outcome is possible.. or, it wouldn't matter at all, in which case the coach ain't as important to the outcome of a game as one might think and should stop trying to overcoach things...
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 9, 2019 at 8:35 a.m.
Thread: Serious question
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Juice</b></div><div>haha...oh boy...here we go with what appears to be another greatly debated thread. I think I'm late to the party here a bit.

so...Offer sheets...is this the year we finally see a bunch? I honestly don't think so but who knows. My opinions are summarized as follows:

1. All these RFA's coming off their ELC's will be eligible to sign offer sheets as of July 1st when their current contract expires and that window stays open until the player signs. Although any RFA signed after Dec. 1st can't play that season.

2. Their agents can't legally start negotiating offer sheets until the negotiating window prior to July 1st...the reality? These conversations are probably already taking place. Agent 'A' talks to GM 'X' about a player he represents on that team...during that conversation...they discuss another one of Agent 'A's' clients who happens to be a pending RFA and GM 'X' casually mentions that he'd likely be willing to offer $$$ if the occasion arose.

3. Teams cannot get multiple offer sheets signed if the compensation requires the same draft picks in each.

4. Players can only sign 1 offer sheet. So if 15 GM's want to get Marner signed to an offer sheet...only 1 may actually do so

5. The player has to sign the offer sheet for it to have any relevance. If Marner has no interest in playing in New Jersey...he's not going to sign an offer sheet and hope it works as leverage vs the leafs

6. Taxes and offer sheets. I personally believe the states with no state income tax have a competitive advantage specifically when extending their own players. They can show the math to the agent and player and show why accepting $x from them is equivalent to signing $x + $y elsewhere. When it comes to offer sheets, I don't think that advantage applies. Dallas can't offer Kapanen $3m on an offer sheet and convince him it's worth more than $3m in Toronto....I mean...it is....but Toronto matches and there is no tax benefit...so it's not a negotiating tool in luring RFA's to sign an offer sheet, IMO

7. On the topic of taxes....YES....players pay personal income taxes as eloquently laid out by <a href="/users/ChiHawk" target="_blank">@ChiHawk</a> . Yes they can incorporate themselves to funnel any payments they get for non NHL work...but their playing salaries are subject to personal income taxes. And I've laid out a number of times how some baseball contracts signed in no-income tax states have clauses in them that require the team to compenstate the player if they trade them to a higher tax state for the difference in salary lost specifically due to the different tax structure. Google the financials associated with the big Marlins-Blue Jays trade from 2012.

8. Offer sheet compensation scale. This isn't a huge issue...but the compensation is a variable scale that's based on the average league salary. It goes up almost every year and it's very likely that the $4,059,322 upper limit in the 2nd round draft pick compensation range will see that number rise....meaning it could end up that teams could offer Kapanen $4.5m on an offer sheet and the compensation remains a 2nd. We'll have to wait for it to be announced.

9. Someone earlier in this thread brought up that the AAV for offer sheets is based on 5 years for any offers that have terms of 5-7 yrs. I believe it was <a href="/users/mdeason99" target="_blank">@mdeason99</a> 's post. This is true and is calculation is accurate...however my understanding is that this formula is simply used to determine the compensation bracket...not the ultimate AAV the signing team will have to fit on their cap.

10. On Kapanen. Again I'm repeating myself from about 4-5 other posts...but I don't see any fathomable way the leafs let Kapanen walk for a 2nd round pick...I'm not saying they match an offer sheet no questions asked...but I don't think the GM's that would be competing to get Kapanen signed to an offer sheet would allow a fellow GM to scoop him up for a 2nd. As soon as the season is done I would expect GM's to come calling Kyle on Kapanen....letting him know that if the Leafs can't reach an agreement with him that they would be prepared to make a trade offer more lucrative than just a 2nd round pick. So IMO, anyone who's getting giddy at the prospect of getting Kapanen to sign a $4m+ offer sheet with them and only lose a 2nd round pick is destined for disappointment

11. On Marner. I know the OP suggested an offer sheet at $10m. I don't have a single shred of doubt that the Leafs would match $10m on any contract length. I think they'd sign $10m on 7-8yrs right now if they could. Marner wants Matthews-level compensation...so teams are going to have to get to at least $12m AAV to likely even get the attention of Marner on an offer sheet.

Conclusion. There won't be any leafs signing offer sheets this summer (but 1 or 2 could get traded)...that's my opinion anyway</div></div>

Awesome post, Juice!

I don't doubt for a second that Mitch wants to be a leaf for life, and that the leafs, and more importantly, leaf nation want that too. Marner seems like the perfect blend of high end dynamic skill, hard work, joyful personality, gud pro quotient and gud teammate, and generally good human being that the leafs have needed. Love the dude!

All I'm saying is just because we love him and Marner wants AM money, doesn't mean he should get it, or that it would it make the leafs a better hockey team. I mean, I love my kiddos too, but if I gave them everything they wanted the only thing they would eat would be jelly beans, and then their teeth would turn black, fall out, and it would bring shame and ruin to my family..

I think Dubas needs to keep the aav under 10M. I like the contract example that mdeason99 gave, as well as some of the bridge examples that you've recently shared. Kucherov money seems more than fair to me. Mitch's contract would kick in the same year as his.. and Kuch is only making like 4M something right now on his first post elc deal. Id say given those 2 points its more than offsets any tax advantage that Tampa may have. The big change in trend with these super star rfas could be that we see more 3 -6 yr deals, and fewer longer deals that buy additional ufa years.. its just too heavy on the annual cap. And if that's the case, then I for one am more than happy with it.

it just means we resign Mitch again in a few years. No biggie
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 9, 2019 at 8:58 a.m.
Thread: Serious question
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>blowing_the_zone</b></div><div>Awesome post, Juice!

I don't doubt for a second that Mitch wants to be a leaf for life, and that the leafs, and more importantly, leaf nation want that too. Marner seems like the perfect blend of high end dynamic skill, hard work, joyful personality, gud pro quotient and gud teammate, and generally good human being that the leafs have needed. Love the dude!

All I'm saying is just because we love him and Marner wants AM money, doesn't mean he should get it, or that it would it make the leafs a better hockey team. I mean, I love my kiddos too, but if I gave them everything they wanted the only thing they would eat would be jelly beans, and then their teeth would turn black, fall out, and it would bring shame and ruin to my family..

I think Dubas needs to keep the aav under 10M. I like the contract example that mdeason99 gave, as well as some of the bridge examples that you've recently shared. Kucherov money seems more than fair to me. Mitch's contract would kick in the same year as his.. and Kuch is only making like 4M something right now on his first post elc deal. Id say given those 2 points its more than offsets any tax advantage that Tampa may have. The big change in trend with these super star rfas could be that we see more 3 -6 yr deals, and fewer longer deals that buy additional ufa years.. its just too heavy on the annual cap. And if that's the case, then I for one am more than happy with it.

it just means we resign Mitch again in a few years. No biggie</div></div>

Yep. All valid points for sure. One of the things Dubas said in the press conference when the announced the Auston Matthews contact....someone asked him if he thought this signing would set the market for other RFAs around the league this summer. His response....’we don’t concern ourselves with what other teams are or might be doing with their players. We’re focussed on our guys and building a team that can win’.

That’s one of the many reasons I’ve been saying league comparisons are good for forecasting budgets, but not in actual negotiations.

You’re absolutely right tho, it can’t be a blank cheque
and there has to be a limit the leafs won’t go past. I personally think that limit is 11.634m on 5yrs....but who really knows. We do know Dubas thinks Marner should get less than Matthews and we do know Marner thinks he should get the same.

Personally that’s why I think we end up with a 3yr bridge. I can’t see Marner accepting a lower AAV than Matthews on a longer deal than him. And I can’t see the leafs being able to afford the same AAV or higher if they want 6+yrs. At 3 years they can likely get the AAV at or under $10m (hopefully $500k-$1m less at 3yrs). And then everyone walks away feeling like they accomplished what they set out to do.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 8, 2019 at 10:23 p.m.
Thread: Serious question
haha...oh boy...here we go with what appears to be another greatly debated thread. I think I'm late to the party here a bit.

so...Offer sheets...is this the year we finally see a bunch? I honestly don't think so but who knows. My opinions are summarized as follows:

1. All these RFA's coming off their ELC's will be eligible to sign offer sheets as of July 1st when their current contract expires and that window stays open until the player signs. Although any RFA signed after Dec. 1st can't play that season.

2. Their agents can't legally start negotiating offer sheets until the negotiating window prior to July 1st...the reality? These conversations are probably already taking place. Agent 'A' talks to GM 'X' about a player he represents on that team...during that conversation...they discuss another one of Agent 'A's' clients who happens to be a pending RFA and GM 'X' casually mentions that he'd likely be willing to offer $$$ if the occasion arose.

3. Teams cannot get multiple offer sheets signed if the compensation requires the same draft picks in each.

4. Players can only sign 1 offer sheet. So if 15 GM's want to get Marner signed to an offer sheet...only 1 may actually do so

5. The player has to sign the offer sheet for it to have any relevance. If Marner has no interest in playing in New Jersey...he's not going to sign an offer sheet and hope it works as leverage vs the leafs

6. Taxes and offer sheets. I personally believe the states with no state income tax have a competitive advantage specifically when extending their own players. They can show the math to the agent and player and show why accepting $x from them is equivalent to signing $x + $y elsewhere. When it comes to offer sheets, I don't think that advantage applies. Dallas can't offer Kapanen $3m on an offer sheet and convince him it's worth more than $3m in Toronto....I mean...it is....but Toronto matches and there is no tax benefit...so it's not a negotiating tool in luring RFA's to sign an offer sheet, IMO

7. On the topic of taxes....YES....players pay personal income taxes as eloquently laid out by <a href="/users/ChiHawk" target="_blank">@ChiHawk</a> . Yes they can incorporate themselves to funnel any payments they get for non NHL work...but their playing salaries are subject to personal income taxes. And I've laid out a number of times how some baseball contracts signed in no-income tax states have clauses in them that require the team to compenstate the player if they trade them to a higher tax state for the difference in salary lost specifically due to the different tax structure. Google the financials associated with the big Marlins-Blue Jays trade from 2012.

8. Offer sheet compensation scale. This isn't a huge issue...but the compensation is a variable scale that's based on the average league salary. It goes up almost every year and it's very likely that the $4,059,322 upper limit in the 2nd round draft pick compensation range will see that number rise....meaning it could end up that teams could offer Kapanen $4.5m on an offer sheet and the compensation remains a 2nd. We'll have to wait for it to be announced.

9. Someone earlier in this thread brought up that the AAV for offer sheets is based on 5 years for any offers that have terms of 5-7 yrs. I believe it was <a href="/users/mdeason99" target="_blank">@mdeason99</a> 's post. This is true and is calculation is accurate...however my understanding is that this formula is simply used to determine the compensation bracket...not the ultimate AAV the signing team will have to fit on their cap.

10. On Kapanen. Again I'm repeating myself from about 4-5 other posts...but I don't see any fathomable way the leafs let Kapanen walk for a 2nd round pick...I'm not saying they match an offer sheet no questions asked...but I don't think the GM's that would be competing to get Kapanen signed to an offer sheet would allow a fellow GM to scoop him up for a 2nd. As soon as the season is done I would expect GM's to come calling Kyle on Kapanen....letting him know that if the Leafs can't reach an agreement with him that they would be prepared to make a trade offer more lucrative than just a 2nd round pick. So IMO, anyone who's getting giddy at the prospect of getting Kapanen to sign a $4m+ offer sheet with them and only lose a 2nd round pick is destined for disappointment

11. On Marner. I know the OP suggested an offer sheet at $10m. I don't have a single shred of doubt that the Leafs would match $10m on any contract length. I think they'd sign $10m on 7-8yrs right now if they could. Marner wants Matthews-level compensation...so teams are going to have to get to at least $12m AAV to likely even get the attention of Marner on an offer sheet.

Conclusion. There won't be any leafs signing offer sheets this summer (but 1 or 2 could get traded)...that's my opinion anyway
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 8, 2019 at 7:10 p.m.
Thread: Serious question
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mdeason99</b></div><div>Yeah IMO I think Mitch will sign a bridge deal.. 2 or 3 years @ 7-9mil. It's not the money he wants or deserves on a long-term deal but that would be roughly 8-9% of the cap and would be the richest RFA bridge deal in league history. Then after that deal is up and the leafs have tons of cap space (Marleau, Z, Horton, etc) he can get whatever contract he wants. He'll be a leaf for his entire career, we gotta start enjoying this team and not worry about offer sheets, they're way to rare and risky.</div></div>

Thank you, my man! This is where i wanted to land. These rfa superstar contracts are getting out of hand.. and i bore of hearing from the MSM that they all deserve the moon and more.. ultimately, I don't think thats how you build a Stanley cup team. Sooner or later, gms are going to start to push back. . What you laid out as a contract scenario seems reasonable
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 8, 2019 at 7:10 p.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 8, 2019 at 6:59 p.m.
Thread: Serious question
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mdeason99</b></div><div>There's 0% chance of Marner signing an offer sheet for so many reasons.

Let's say he *signs* an offer sheet for 7yrs X 13mil (it would gave to more than 12m for the leafs to not match), per the CBA rules on offer sheets; that would be a $91mil/5 years=$18.2M AAV. There is no team that could afford an $18.2M AAV, plus losing 4 1sts and still be competitive. There is no team that can offer the signing-bonus heavy contract like the leafs (lockout protected) while also being competitive. Mitch isn't going to play for a bad team.

End of story, he's not signing an offer sheet, he likely won't even get to July 1st anyways. Put the offer sheet talk to rest.</div></div>

Right, this is the point that I'm trying to make. If an OS isnt likely, why would the leafs ever offer him a contract that is over 10M? If, for whatever reason, some team gives Mitch an OS of 10M plus, why wouldn't the keafs take the 4 firsts, and sugn someone like Stone or Duchene at Kucherov money that woulda been allocated for Mitch.? And uts hard to argue that Mitch is worth more than Kucherov.. so by my reasoning 9.5M aav for Mitch seems fair . At what term, I don't know
Forum: Armchair-GMFeb. 7, 2019 at 5:57 p.m.
Thread: TML please comment
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mdeason99</b></div><div>You're spot on in your observation. Except he's a really bad top 4 or an above average bottom pairing guy, which is why the contract is so tough to move. They'll have to either retain or attach an asset to get rid of him, but there's def teams out there looking for a guy like him (just not his contract). The GM that signed him is currently a GM so we'll see what happens there.</div></div>

From what I've seen I'd say he is a top 4 Dman but I don't see him play as much as you and everybody looks good against the Wings. You said your old GM and I think the Islanders would be a good fit for both of them. They still have work to do and the length of Zaitsev's contract would be a benefit to them.