i would imagine that njd, fla, nyr, col, nash, and maybe to some extent nyi or perhaps chicago and ottawa

First of all I fon’t Think marner will hit RFA and secondly I don’t Think he signs any offersheet that isn’t a wild over payment.

That being said I think maybe the islanders, Devils, rangers or possibly Nashville. could make it fit. I’ve heard chatter of Avs but they have Rantanen to worry about. The other teams that have Soace don’t have the bankroll to front load and offer a lock out insured contract. There are a few other teams that might be interested but would have to move some contracts around.

I would scratch Florida from the list, don’t see them willing to give him a 12m signing bonus if there may be a lockout. And colorado has Rantanen to deal with.

I didn’t have Chicago on my list though. They might be in a position but would have to shed some salary first.

Let imagine an offer sheet is presented to Marner at 10m X 7 years. IMO he doesn't sign it and goes to the Leafs and now he has a concrete bargaining chip. I still believe there are life term benefits being a Leaf, especially one with Cup potential and he would sign for less than 10m as a Leaf. But what happens if the offer is 12m (the second highest in the NHL) and the Leafs hold to a 10m offer. What side "gives in"
I just might think Marner signs the 12m offer sheet. Leafs decline to match then spend that 9.5m or whatever they allotted for him on another player and also have the 4 first rounders.

I think Kapanen would be the main target of an offersheet. At $4M AAV for up to 5 years the compensation would only be a 2nd round pick. It puts the leafs in a tough situation where they have 7 days to try to clear cap space to match it or take the 2nd rounder as compensation.

I think the offer has to be over 4.1m to let him walk. Things like cap space could effect our ability and it may take some moves. I think if you go over the 4.1m you are sure to have kappy sign and leafs don’t match. Getting a 1st and 3rd( I believe)... I think they take the picks and save the money.

Offer sheets will lead to unemployment line and bad blood in old boys club, the league is getting so young and fast, I don’t see a team that is basically built and has the cap room and down to the last piece, to fire such a bomb on another team. My question would be for a veteran team trying to turn back the clock a bit and have a last ditch attempt at making gold, like say Anaheim Chicago sj colombus Boston, but that could be a franchise crippler with one injury

I dont think a team would give him over 4.1 since they compensation would be too high. The max i would go personally is 4 so the compensation would only be a 2nd rounder.

I wouldnt mind if the Leafs matched an offer at 4M AAV. Half of the reason of putting in an offersheet is to put the Leafs in a tough situation against the cap. Why would other teams pay an extra 100k AAV if they would have to give up a bigger compensation package?

Thanks, guys. Maybe there is a real appetite for some teams to OS Marner. And don't get me wrong, i think the guy is awesome, but for a team to give up 4 firsts plus carry Marner at 10M+ seems a super heavy price to pay.. and takes away those 1st rounders as currency for trade chips at future deadlines from a team that would very likely have short team cup aspirations. Not to mention that any one if those picks could turn i to a future Marner in itself. That seems like a helluva a gamble to me..

That is the game of chicken, that you open yourself up for if you throw out a offersheet to bid your opponent up and not grossly overpay, try to find that happy balance and find the number your all right with and have to watch what you wish for

I would be happy to give up a 2nd rounder to get Kapanen at $4M AAV for 5 years. I would also be happy if the Leafs matched it and had trouble fitting under the cap.

There's 0% chance of Marner signing an offer sheet for so many reasons.

Let's say he *signs* an offer sheet for 7yrs X 13mil (it would have to be more than 12m for the leafs to not match), per the CBA rules on offer sheets; that would be a $91mil/5 years=$18.2M AAV. There is no team that could afford an $18.2M AAV, plus losing 4 1sts and still be competitive. There is no team that can offer the signing-bonus heavy contract like the leafs (lockout protected) while also being competitive. Mitch isn't going to play for a bad team.

End of story, he's not signing an offer sheet, he likely won't even get to July 1st anyways. Put the offer sheet talk to rest.

Good call, messes with the leafs and limits your exposure, probably makes more sense than some of the massive contracts and massive compensation floating around on here

Right, this is the point that I'm trying to make. If an OS isnt likely, why would the leafs ever offer him a contract that is over 10M? If, for whatever reason, some team gives Mitch an OS of 10M plus, why wouldn't the keafs take the 4 firsts, and sugn someone like Stone or Duchene at Kucherov money that woulda been allocated for Mitch.? And uts hard to argue that Mitch is worth more than Kucherov.. so by my reasoning 9.5M aav for Mitch seems fair . At what term, I don't know

Depending on when the offer comes in, the Leafs would have more than 7 days. If the offer came August 1st the Leafs have two months to get totally cap compliant. Sure Kapanen is worth more than 2nd rounder, but do teams really want to pay/overpay for another teams RFAs? They have to deal with their own RFA (at a reasonable cost) and the cap. Do teams (and their owners) want to deal with the Leaf and their financial strength when the Leafs could offer front loaded contracts to RFAs, to low and mid end guys.

They would have 7 days to decide to match it, but they wouldnt have to be cap compliant until later on.

I dont think 4M is an overpayment for Kapanen anyway

Is the window not July 1st to July 7th for rfas and you can offersheet two players as long as you have your own picks to cover the compensation and you can run 15 percent over cap for the summer, but I maybe wrong on all of this, please enlighten

Yeah IMO I think Mitch will sign a bridge deal.. 2 or 3 years @ 7-9mil. It's not the money he wants or deserves on a long-term deal but that would be roughly 8-9% of the cap and would be the richest RFA bridge deal in league history. Then after that deal is up and the leafs have tons of cap space (Marleau, Z, Horton, etc) he can get whatever contract he wants. He'll be a leaf for his entire career, we gotta start enjoying this team and not worry about offer sheets, they're way to rare and risky.

Its hard to compare Kuch's contract to Marner's at first glance without considering other factors. $1 in Florida is worth more than $1 in Toronto due to taxes. Plus with the cap rising player's asking prices will rise with it

I imagine the 2020 labour fight will be over becoming a ufa sooner and relevant offer sheets and younger players getting paid sooner. Hopefully not a long scrap

Thank you, my man! This is where i wanted to land. These rfa superstar contracts are getting out of hand.. and i bore of hearing from the MSM that they all deserve the moon and more.. ultimately, I don't think thats how you build a Stanley cup team. Sooner or later, gms are going to start to push back. . What you laid out as a contract scenario seems reasonable

Yep. I agree entirely with all of this. Especially the part about hoping its not a long and drawn out fight..

Yeah, I know. But news came out the other day that Matthews will pay next to nothing in taxes on his deal given how its structured and that he's a resident of Arizona. There's more to the tax debate than what the current narrative is.

Don't believe there is just that limited one week window for offers sheets as you indicate.

Why do you compare Kucherov playing is Florida (sometimes) compared to Marner's Leaf base. Players don't pay personal tax rates. As I have suggested many times, Blue Jays and Raptors never demand salary premium for tax reasons but somehow it a big issue for the CapFriendly tax experts.