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mothariah

mothariah
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Jul. 3, 2017
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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 18, 2018 at 2:31 p.m.
Thread: Trading Zucker for Callahan II
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mothariah</b></div><div>Okay, I agree with you, and I think that approach might happen soon for the Wild. And it would be better to begin that process sooner rather than later so they kids you talked about can be a part of the process. The Kunin's and the Eriksson Ek's.

But if you're going to go that route, why aren't you going to tear the whole thing down? Why hang on to Devan Dubnyk, who will probably not be an elite goaltender by that point? Why trade Zucker, who could be your veteran leader at that point, when you should really trade guys like Charlie Coyle, Nino Niederreiter, etc. who are they players who can't get the Wild over the hump in the playoffs?

I get that Zucker would get you a big return, but it's not like you couldn't trade Coyle for a decent return. Same with some other players.

You're 100% right they are caught in limbo, but you can't do what the Canadiens did and think you can just make one large move to fix the problem. Trading P.K. Subban didn't solve the problem. And it's gone downhill from there.

If you want to rebuild for the future, you need to do what the Sharks did. Or what the Blackhawks are trying to do. Shed off a lot of dead weight, and bring in younger players who fit the modern game, or bring in some veterans on modest deals.

The point is, trading Zucker isn't going to fix anything today, and the return you get for Zucker probably won't fix anything tomorrow either. If you're going to go down that route, it's time to trade away more than just Zucker.</div></div>

Awesome points and I agree with almost everything you said. The main reason for doing what I did is Wild owner Craig Leipold. He has stated vehemently that he will not allow a rebuild, but only a "tweak" or two. The other reason is Zach Parise and Ryan Suter...or their contracts to be more specific. It would be very difficult to do a true rebuild without trading both of them...but they have NMC/NTCs. Both chose to come to MN to be closer to home and family, so I don't see them allowing the Wild to move them. Besides, who is dumb enough to take on their contracts anyway?

I don't like the idea of trading either Coyle or Niederreiter, as you suggest. Both are coming off injury-plagued, down seasons and the Wild would be selling low. I'm not a fan of that. Zucker is the one to trade because he is going to get (IMO) more money and more term than he is worth coming off a career year. Zucker is a very good player and adds a lot...but, (again IMO) he is the type of piece a true contender adds, not a player to build around. This is why I think he would make a ton of sense in Tampa. They get a real player for Callahan's money and the Wild get 2 very nice prospects to build around for the future. It makes so much sense in my pea-sized brain that I can't believe it hasn't already happened...:D
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 18, 2018 at 10:49 a.m.
Thread: Trading Zucker for Callahan II
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mothariah</b></div><div>You trade a good offensive piece for an aging, injury-plagued depth forward who is way overpaid? Not seeing that... Even with some prospects coming back, and Cal Foote is NOT in play for any trade, not even Erik Karlsson.</div></div>

The Minnesota Wild have made the playoffs 6 years in a row...that's great...but, they have been mostly non-competitive in the post season those 6 years too. Basically, they are a franchise stuck in the mud because of loooong contracts to aging players. While taking on Callahan's contract is not ideal, if it ultimately gets two young, very good/great prospects for Zucker...I think it's worth it in the long haul. The Wild have enough forward depth to stay competitive without Zucker, so this is a trade designed for the long-term health of the Wild. The big picture here is the arrival of stud Wild prospect Kirill Kaprizov. By all accounts, he is going to be an absolute offensive juggernaut, but cannot cross the ocean for two more seasons because of his KHL contract. Both Callahan and Koivu will be off the books by then and the Wild will be a new look team because their other old players (Parise and Suter) will have smaller roles and the current 20-something players (Granlund, Dumba, Niederrieter, et al) will take over the roles they should already have. Also by then, Eriksson Ek, Greenway, Kunin, et al will be ready for larger roles and the prospects in this trade, along with others in the system will be NHL ready. They will then be a very talented, balanced team...ready to be legitimate Cup contenders.

That was a long-winded answer for: This is a step backwards for the Wild so they can ultimately take 2 steps forward in the near future.
Forum: NHL SigningsJul. 16, 2018 at 7:22 p.m.
Thread: Montreal Canadiens signed Phillip Danault (3 Years / $3,083,333 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mothariah</b></div><div>Play like Marcus Kruger, they said. Be Marcus Kruger's replacement, they said. Be traded so they can keep Marcus Kruger, they said. Get the SAME contract as Marcus Kruger, they said.

So weird...

Decent deal. He should be a 3c, but will likely be the #2 this year. He need to be more like the 40 point guy than the injured 25 point guy for this team.</div></div>

Well his injury was getting a puck in the head from a Chara slapshot....can’t really blame the guy lol and pro-rated his 25pts in 52games becomes 39pts, so i think he’s been a pretty consistent 40pts Center over the past 2 seasons.

However i do think his offensive game is a little overrated, but that his defensive game is hugely underrated. I’ll have to look it up, but i heard a lot of league wide defensive stats, he was top 10. One with him being 1st was successful stick checks.
Forum: NHL SigningsJul. 15, 2018 at 5:35 p.m.
Thread: Montreal Canadiens signed Phillip Danault (3 Years / $3,083,333 AAV)
<strong>HONEST OPINION</strong>

<strong>Yes </strong>- This is contract is good value for 3 years.
<strong>Yes </strong>- Domi's contract is good value for 2 years.
<strong>Yes</strong> - Armia's contract is good value for this year.
<strong>Yes</strong> - Gallagher's contract is good value for 3 more years.

But do you know what Montreal will definitely not be worrying about for the next 3 years? Cap Space.

They're in the middle of a "re-tool" and if everything works out perfectly, they'll be a cup contender again in about....3 Years.

And if things do go perfectly....Danault, Domi, Armia and Gallagher will all be huge contributors to that success.

Which means the best case scenario has all 4 of them receiving massive raises in near future....because they took short-term CapFriendy deals while we had plenty of cap space.

So we can look forward to those pay raises in 3 years....but at the same time:

<strong>Weber </strong>- will be a geriatric care patient making $7,900,000 for another 5 years.
<strong>Price </strong>- may or may not look like Carey Price, but will still be making $10,500,000 for another 5 years.
<strong>Alzner</strong> - will have completed his transformation into a traffic cone, but still making $4,625,000 per year.
<strong>Shaw </strong> - will be the leagues wealthiest 4th line grinder, and still making $3,900,000 per year.
<strong>Mete, Poehling, Kotkaniemi, Juulsen, etc.</strong> will be finished or finishing their ELC's and looking for cash.

So ya....based on the Montreal's current situation....I think Bergy should've tried to get these guys on long-term deals....even if they were more expensive (and he definitely should have locked up the guys with consistent NHL track records....some of them were ripe for long-term discounts).

But if I'm being honest....I don't believe he thought about any of this before negotiating....because they all got signed pretty quick.

And I don't think he has a plan to get rid of the albatross (and future albatross) contracts on the roster....which will only get harder to move with time.

<strong>So now I'm worried that any glimmer of a bright future will eventually force Bergevin to purge that future away.

And I can only guess how those trades will turn out with Bergy at the helm. </strong>
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 12, 2018 at 7:12 p.m.
Thread: Sharks future w/ seguin?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mothariah</b></div><div>It's natural to think that because the Sharks missed out on John Tavares they will make a push for Seguin. It's a good idea, but I think he is a lot more likely to stay than leave. Tavares left the Islanders because he team was bad, and he could go home and play for his favorite team.

Conversely, Seguin loves Dallas. He likes being out of the spotlight, playing on a relatively good team, and not state income tax. I would be shocked if he left, and if he does, there are a number of teams that would want him.

And with that being said, he will likely get more than $11.000 mil. Tavares turned down money to go to Toronto. Seguin could make like $12.000 or $12.500 mil easy compared to what it sounded like Tavares left on the table.

And the trade for him around the deadline likely doesn't get it done. I think it's a good start, but I don't think you trade a legit #1 center, a top 10 center in the league, for an at best 2C, a middle-six winger, a center prospect who will probable be a second liner, a second round pick, and a good fourth liner.

Make the second a first. Add a third. Add a roster defenseman (Heed, Ryan, DeMelo depending on how this year plays out for them). That probably does the deal. Maybe you can scale back Norris to a Gambrell type prospect. Or instead scale Labanc back to Balcers or something. No matter what, a little bit more is needed.

Remember the Stars traded a top line winger, a good winger, a prospect, and a good defensive prospect for Seguin, a third liner, and an AHLer. And that was before Seguin had a 30 goal season or 70 point season.</div></div>

Good post!

At the time of the dal-bos trade, seguin was just a kid, which means:
1. hes very cheap (as opposed to next year where he'll be deep in 8 figures).
2. Boston did not HAVE to move him (as opposed to dallas at the deadline if they suck and he's not resigned yet. too risky to repeat a tavares...)
3. Seguin did already have a pretty strong season: he had a 29g, 67 pt +34 season. He was already pretty studly, and in truth, I think dallas thought hed be closer to 90-100 pt player when they got him. I actually think his 70-80 pts is lower than dallas had expected or hoped for.

And as for the price you mentioned, dougie would do it. hed add the 3rd. Hed give up the 2020 1st (the 2019 one is already gone). Hed happily throw in demelo or even ryan (who looks like a legit Dman). Heed is a to-be-ufa so dallas wouldnt want him. Hed happily throw in half the farm to add a seguin at age 27 for a decade.
Forum: NHL SigningsJul. 9, 2018 at 5:04 p.m.
Thread: San Jose Sharks signed Tomas Hertl (4 Years / $5,625,000 AAV)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mothariah</b></div><div>Well, this is the new norm. The cap is going up, so everyone's salaries are going up. He is taking the same percentage of cap as others did before him, it's just a larger number since the cap is going up and up and up.

I agree they are looking at problems down the road, but the Burns deal will be fine for awhile. The Couture deal will be fine for awhile. The Hertl deal will be fine for the duration.

Vlasic might get to be a bad one if he starts to wear down faster.

Kane is overpaid, but the same argument as Hertl. He is also GOING to hit career highs in everything this year, his first full season with the Sharks.

Like I said, I think I would have liked Hertl to be at $5.000 mil, but this is fine if he keeps playing in the top 6 and keeps improving.

The alternative is what? Trade him for a couple of picks? No thank you.

Also, Pavelski is NOT getting a seven year deal. That's insane. He's also not getting $8 mil if he doesn't score 35+ goals this season and lead the team in points. Look for a 3-4 X $6.5-7.25 mil.</div></div>

Fair....but I just said he's going to wan't the money.....especially after the other big contracts his peers have received. I'm not sure if he'll get it.

<strong>Also....I think you're being FAR too bullish on Kane.</strong>

Winnipeg &amp; Buffalo fans both said the exact same thing about Kane EVERY season !

In 2011-12 Kane got 30 goals &amp; 57 points <strong>(that was his contract year). </strong>

He never got anywhere near those numbers for the next 5 seasons....then he got 29 goals &amp; 54 points last season<strong> (which also happened to be a contract year).</strong>

Last season was the best Kane's gonna give you (and he was only on pace for 59 points in 82 games while playing with the Sharks - not that impressive for a $7,000,000 honeymoon).

And he was only on pace for 45 points in 82 games during the playoffs.
Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 3, 2018 at 10:41 a.m.
Thread: Karlsson=Cup?
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>mothariah</b></div><div>Ottawa will get at least one first round pick even is Ryan is included because Karlsson is that good.

I think something like a 1st, a 2nd, Timo Meier, Chris Tierney, Dillon, and another prospect would get the job done for SJ.

I know everyone wants to put Erik Karlsson with the Sharks, and as a hard core Sharks fan, I do too, but that is a LOT to give up for a guy who has been hurt a lot lately, and is arguable the same player as Brent Burns (Karlsson is much better in his own end). I don't think he's worth it for a team that hasn't been able to find any young top six players of late.</div></div>

Thanks for the comment.

I agree, that would be a good amount to pay for Karlsson. Even though his is one of the top 5 D-men in the league, the fact that he is a UFA is a factor when giving up a haul like that. Hopefully part of the negotiations with Karlsson include talks of an extension prior to making the trade. Otherwise, I think that is too much of a gamble to give up, even for a player as good as Karlsson.

My thoughts are that SJS would a little more leverage in the deal if they are taking on the the Bobby Ryan contract. The fact that OTT is hell-bent on pair both players together in a deal, can serve as a bargaining chip for whatever team is agreeing to take on the long term contract of Ryan. I think that you're right in that, they would probably have to give up another blue chip prospect, other than the ones that I have listed. But I'm with you and if OTT is going to stubborn enough to keep waiting for a deal like the one you presented, I think they are going to come up short and lose Karlsson for nothing. I think OTT might be able to get a better or more realistic deal if they trade Karlsson by himself.

I hear comparisons of OTT wanting to wait things out like Sakic did when he made his deals in the Duchene trade. I think they are two very different scenarios. One key factor is that Duchene had two years left on his contract at the time of his trade and doesn't have too heavy of a contract for a team to take on. A second is that COL wasn't attempting to pair Duchene with another very heavy contract with massive term.

What are your thoughts?

Thanks again!