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sabertooth12

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Forum: Armchair-GMJul. 2, 2020 at 2:31 p.m.
Thread: STOP TRADING 8OA
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>asauer1122</b></div><div>The top 8 IMO is very high end. this was before the lottery, before i knew where buff was picking. Sabres would be foolish to trade the pick for player such as domi.</div></div>

They'd be foolish to not consider it, IMO. You are WAY overvaluing the draft pick and WAY overestimating the Sabres ability to get that pick right.

Between 2001 and 2015 there were 39 forwards taken with picks <strong>4-7</strong>. If we rearrange them by P/GP performance we can see the odds of getting a difference-maker:

Superstar (1.00+ P/GP): 0/39 = 0%
Elite (0.75 - 0.99): 8/39 = 20.5%
Top-6 (0.50 - 0.74): 17/39 = 43.6%
Bottom-6 (&lt; 0.50): 14/39 = 35.9%

I did that research when Buffalo was slotted to get the 7th pick, but since they're now picking 8th lets repeat the procedure but with picks 8-10. Forwards only, from 2001 to 2015 inclusive:

Superstar (1.00+ P/GP): 0/27 = 0%
Elite (0.75 - 0.99): 2/27 = 7.4%
Top-6 (0.50 - 0.74): 11/27 = 40.7%
Bottom-6 (&lt; 0.50): 14/27 = 51.9%

High picks are great, but (cap aside) if you have a chance to trade your #8 pick for an established player in his early 20's who scores 0.67 P/GP you shouldn't dismiss that as "foolish". Only 2 of the players in the Top-6 range matched or exceeded 0.67 P/GP, meaning that you typically have a 14.8% chance of getting a player equal to or better (offensively) than Domi with that pick. AGAIN, it depends on who is available there, but to dismiss the notion of trading the pick so hastily is foolish.

Edited to add the link to the previous (pick 4-7) research: <a href="https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/332985?post_id=1467976">https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/332985?post_id=1467976</a>
Forum: Armchair-GMJun. 13, 2020 at 8:26 p.m.
Thread: Trading Risto for Tuch
<a href="/users/Shootica" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Shootica</a>
<a href="/users/Vegasloveforthebills" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Vegasloveforthebills</a>

Wow it is amazing to see a conversation in which two people are exchanging thoughts without any denigration.
First, let me say, Ristolainen has played about 24 min/gm for at least 4 different coaches
He is big, he is young, he hits (he likes to hit), he plays in all situations, he plays against other teams top lines, he has four 40 pt seasons and he will not turn 26 until after next season starts.
Please check out how old Burns and Chara were before they had three 40 pt/seasons.
Second, how bad can the Buffalo defense be when they ranked 9th in the NHL for fewest 5 on 5 goals allowed.
Remember Hutton could not see the puck for about 6 weeks and went win-less over a 12 game stretch.
Third, we have not seen the best of Ristolainen.
Fourth, Buffalo has the cap space to sign a good top 6 forward so it will not be under great pressure to undersell any player.
Fifth, Does anyone expect Skinner to do as poorly next year. My goodness who was his centerman?
Finally, I love reading your exchange of ideas. Great thread.

<a href="/users/Boomer125" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">@Boomer125</a>
I completely agree, Tuch will not be as good for the Sabres and Ristolainen will excel for the Knights.