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tp47

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Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 5, 2018 at 10:53 a.m.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 5, 2018 at 7:50 a.m.
Thread: Barrie-Point
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>moli92</b></div><div>Who will they get rid of to get cap space to sign him? They just signed a number of forwards since 2017 to extensions which include some sort of NTC/NMC. They left Point's extension to the very end. Unless point wants to sign a deal for $3M AAV someone has to go</div></div>

The two they would get the most return for would be Miller or Gourde before their NTCs kick in (assuming they sign Point).

I think Callahan is a lock to get moved. He can still be traded to 16 teams, so I'm sure they could bribe a team to take his cap hit - I think NYR would make sense, because his history, the teams' recent trade relationship, and the Rangers are rebuilding.

Lastly, TBL could always try to get Killorn or Johnson to waive their NTCs. I think that's much less likely, but they may be open to move to a team where they would have a more prominent role.
Forum: Armchair-GMNov. 5, 2018 at 12:17 a.m.
Thread: Barrie-Point
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>drumr0213</b></div><div>Sorry but not gonna happen. Not trying to be mean but I wanna give you real reasons why it is a no from Tampa. Point is the heart and soul of our team. He is our top goal scorer this yr as well. He is 1 of our 4 best defenders in our forward group. On paper his line is our 2nd line but that is to show respect to our Captain's line. In reality, Point's line is our top line. Which includes Gourde, Point, &amp; Johnson/Palat (who's day to day injured right now). This yr, Cooper is trying to roll all 4 lines equally in ice time however Point's line plays in the biggest situations. It's not the Stammer/ Kuch line out there when the game is on the line. No matter who we play, Point's line plays against the other teams top line. Especially in last yrs playoffs. We start every game with that line. We started OT tonight with Point &amp; Gourde with McD and they won us the game in there 1st shift. We just locked up Gourde for 6 yrs. Johnson is locked up and next will be Point. Our GM JBB has said he will resign him in the off season. Translation he needs time to move some pieces out to clear cap for him. Don't be surprised when big fan favorite player(s)/ contract(s) are moved out at the TDL or off season. Then their is the fans... Tampa fans would rather lose Stammer than lose Point and Tampa loves Stammer. Sorry this is long and again I am not trying to be mean. Just from Tampa's point of view, he is on the untouchable list.</div></div>

"Tampa fans would rather lose Stammer than lose point". That statement is pure crazy, and is wayyy overvaluing a guy with 1 elite season. I agree with your overall thought though - Point is likely untouchable.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>moli92</b></div><div>basically what my last 5 posts have suggested but ok.

Point for Barrie 1 for 1 is not a fair trade. Barrie has 2 years left before UFA and Point is an RFA this offseason. Point is much more valuable. In my previous posts I have suggested Point and a cap dump (Callahan) for Barrie (50% salary retained), Andrighetto, 2019 COL 1st, 2020 COL 2nd</div></div>

I've always thought Barrie to TBL would be good fit for a trade, but I thought (/hoped) it would be going after Miller or Gourde. And I think you were grossly undervaluing Barrie in your AGM's trade.

<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>BeastModeUnknown</b></div><div>I'm thinking Ott 1st, and a prospect in exchange for point</div></div>

Trading the OTT 1st doesn't make sense for either team here. COL wouldn't want to move a pick that *should be* in the top 5, especially because COL is still wrapping up their rebuild. TBL is in win-now mode, so moving a top-2 center for a draft pick shoots themselves in the foot after all the trades they've made to be an elite team.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 21, 2018 at 5:11 p.m.
Thread: Spend that money
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JeffW</b></div><div>Ya zadorov is pretty low but bednar seems like hes not giving him tons of playing time, jimmy Howard is a decent backup but he falls apart all the time for stretches.. however I think you're to high on kerfoot, I haven't seen why people think hes so good, not that hes bad but hes not that much better then compher, u less he really turns it up for the rest of the season

I think Colorado needs to stay away from the be money free agents, if I'm sakic I say put 6 mill a year into Wayne Simmonds, and if I cant get him I just let the kids come up and give them opportunity</div></div>

Kerfoot seems to have better possession/play-making ability than Compher. I haven't looked into stats to back that up, but I've always felt that Compher was one of the guys on the outside looking in. And taking a look at last year, Kerfoot had 43 pts (0.54/gp) vs Compher's 23 (0.33/gp). It'll be interesting to see how they both do in their 2nd full season/contract year, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Kerfoot get paid ~2x more than Compher.

I disagree on targeting UFAs. I would love to see COL go after high-end scoring in Stone, Panarin, or Skinner. All 3 are 26 years old, so their prime years would line up well with COL's core. COL has the cap space for any one of them, especially with Wilson ($4M)/Orpik ($1M)/Nemeth ($2.5M) coming off the books.

To be clear, I don't want COL to come out and get 3-5 UFAs and block out the prospects. But COL should take advantage of the last 4 years of MacKinnon's contract, and bringing a high-end winger in to replace Wilson would be a big move.
Forum: Armchair-GMOct. 9, 2018 at 9:56 a.m.
Thread: What Dorion would want for Duchene to Montreal MTL says no way I think
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>KSIxSKULLS</b></div><div>Also depends on if it's a sign and trade or just a Rental. The price would be severely less for a rental, Montreal would probably have little to no interest if that were the case</div></div>

I don't see a reason for Duchene to do a sign &amp; trade. If he's months away from UFA at that point, why not just wait and get the contract/team that you want? Also, is there any certainty that Duchene would want to sign away the rest of his prime years with Montreal? Remember, he requested a trade from COL because he didn't want to be part of another rebuild. It's not clear that MTL is going to be a contender for the next years. If MTL really was a high target for Duchene, I think he would choose to target them in UFA and not rob his future team of assets.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 25, 2018 at 9:34 a.m.
Thread: 3-way
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Center_Ice</b></div><div>I had considered COL adding a prospect such as Timmins to TOR. Wasn't 100% sure on the value of it though.</div></div>

If COL is involved in this trade, TOR/WPG would want them to contribute more. At this point, you have COL giving up 2 3rd round picks and retaining $2.5M for 1 season and getting Nylander. Very lopsided in COL's favor. The general idea and 3-way trade partners seem reasonable to me though.

I know that dumping Wilson is very desirable, but you won't be able to do it for a 2nd round pick. COL picked him up for a 4th round last year, and he really hasn't contributed much. COL may be able to move him this year, but it'll be for a very late pick or low prospect, and they may have to retain salary too.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2018 at 5:03 p.m.
Thread: Opposite
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Banjokat</b></div><div>If Avs are shopping Barrie, it should be within this year, mainly because his price is high, as you wrote.

Haven't seen Meloche play unfortunately, but the logjam could be real if they aren't shopping him around and loose him to free agency. Especially if the kids, Timmins, Meloche, etc. are ready to play. Might as well kick in a trade and get a solid veteran forward and a high draft pick.

Girard was magnificent IMO last season and I truly believe he's going to be a stud this season.

Yeah, pretty excited to see how Kovy will get around in LA. Rumour says the guy is still capable of flying around a stickhandle the **** out of people and sniping top shelf.

Regarding to Pacioretty/Stastny, that's going to be exciting - If you haven't read this article yet, this is pure gold.

<a href="https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/nhl-max-pacioretty-were-going-to-vegas" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/nhl-max-pacioretty-were-going-to-vegas</a>

This should be fun to watch.</div></div>

Agreed on all of this. I hadn't seen the article yet, but it is great.

I'm excited to see what Sakic ends up doing with the RHDs, goalies, and the 2nd line. I wish he could push Barrie + for Nylander or Draisaitl, but like we said, that probably wouldn't meet EDM/TOR needs. Another trade partner I like would be TBL - maybe get Tyler Johnson (waives NMC) or JT Miller. TBL could be more interested now that EK isn't happening (unless UFA). And then of course, COL has the cap space to target guys like Panarin, Stone, Gourde and Bobrovsky if they reach free agency.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2018 at 4:20 p.m.
Thread: Opposite
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Banjokat</b></div><div>They are apparantly so rare that almost every team needs one! ^^ With the contract Barrie is on ATM, I think Avs are going to keep him around until Timmins (and maybe Makar) are ready for a 15-20 min. workload.

The Pacific division was tough enough already last season, but Sharks adding Karlsson, Vancouver's young guns getting another season under their belt (Pettersson is going to be awesome, I think!) and Calgary bolstering their lineup, things are going to be interesting!</div></div>

COL has a bit of logjam at RHD with Johnson, Barrie, Meloche, Timmins and Makar. I would expect Meloche to see some time this year, maybe Timmins (he's just now coming back from concussion/ankle issues after months off), and then Makar to sign his ELC after his college season. Not sure if it'll be Barrie getting moved or not. The arguments for trading him are 1) his value is high right now 2) he's a little older than the core group 3) have other offensive D in Girard and Makar 4) could lose him in free agency in 2 years. Moving him for a young winger could work out.

Don't forget about LAK signing Kovalchuk and VGK getting Pacioretty/Stastny.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2018 at 3:06 p.m.
Thread: Opposite
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Banjokat</b></div><div>I totally agree with you - just wanted to see what the team would actually look like if the trade would happen. EDM will (99% sure) keep McJesus/Draisaitl around for a long time and build around them. The only problem ATM is, as you acknowledge, is their defensive right side.

Even though they might not pick up Barrie, who I see as a match (Mainly because of his offensive upside), I can't seem to find any other guy who could fit EDM needs.</div></div>

It's almost like solid RHD are rarer &amp; always in demand :) I've thought Barrie would be a good fit there too, and had thought a trade like this would be viable even as recently as a couple weeks ago. But with how much tougher the Pacific just got, I think EDM would be really targeting 3-5 years down the road.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 20, 2018 at 2:47 p.m.
Thread: Opposite
COL would love to have Draisaitl (I've thought about trades centered around Draisaitl/Barrie), and I think they would pull the trigger on this trade. I don't think EDM would do it though. With all the moves that SJS, VGK, LAK have made in the offseason, I think EDM sits back and builds on a youth movement around McDavid and Draisaitl (similar to COL and MacKinnon/Rantanen). In a few years, a lot of Pacific teams will have veterans starting to decline while McDavid/Draisaitl are hitting their prime.

For what it's worth, I don't think the value is necessarily far off - just that EDM might value youth/team control in Draisaitl. EDM sits this trade out and sees how their RHD looks with Larsson, Benning and Bouchard (0-2 years away).

I think a trade around Simmonds/Varlamov could work later in the season, depending on how Grubauer/Francouz start the year.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 6, 2018 at 5:12 p.m.
Thread: EK 3-way Trade (COL/OTT)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>CD282</b></div><div>- A verbal agreement is NOT a guarantee
- Edmonton cannot sign Karlsson to an extension until January according to the CBA
- there's no guarantee that Karlsson wants to sign an extension with Edmonton
- your theoretical extension covers from 29 to 36, I can guarantee that he'll decline during that period
- in fact he may be in decline now due to previous injuries, several observers have noted that he seems to have "lost a step"
- his point totals peaked 3 years ago and have declined since
- Draisaitl's contract covers until the age of 30, his best years
- Draisaitl is already outproducing Karlsson and has for 2 years now
- Edmonton's perennial need for RHD is less desperate now, Larsson is top-4 while Bouchard, Bear and Berglund all have top-4 ceilings (Bouchard has #1 potential) - they're all just 1-year away and maybe less
- Edmonton's Cup window is just opening and will be open for another 15 years, trading core players who fit that timeline for an aging superstar who does not makes no sense
- I haven't even touched Nurse yet either - even a Draisaitl-for-Karlsson straight trade doesn't make a lot of sense for the Oilers for the reasons outlined above
- I think you added a high pick too</div></div>

Verbal agreements aren't unheard of. Look at OEL:
<a href="http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nhl/news/nhl-trade-rumors-2018-oliver-ekman-larsson-coyotes-reach-verbal-agreement-on-contract-report-says/v0oc83wc8e41evlsyzwdgset" rel="nofollow noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nhl/news/nhl-trade-rumors-2018-oliver-ekman-larsson-coyotes-reach-verbal-agreement-on-contract-report-says/v0oc83wc8e41evlsyzwdgset</a>

The decline is definitely possible, and probably likely at the end of his contract. I don't believe he's already declining though. The guy missed the start of the season due to injury, lost his son in childbirth, was on an atrocious team, and still put up 62 pts in 71 games. To say that a top forward is outpacing a top defenseman in points isn't shocking...

I traded EDM's 2nd rounder for OTT's 3rd. So probably a 10-20 spot drop.

At the end of it, I agree that this is a stretch for EDM. It probably makes more sense to hold Draisaitl/Nurse and wait a couple years for the mentioned RHD prospects to develop. But EDM's GM also traded Hall for Larsson, so who knows...
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 6, 2018 at 4:47 p.m.
Thread: Contending 2019-2020
Signings:
- I doubt Skinner leaves BUF. He waived his NMC to play there. Could still happen though, if he ends up disliking it after a year
- Why leave off Andrighetto?
- Not a big fan of bringing in DSP and Howard, but I think it's plausible
- Zadorov/Kerfoot/Compher/Rantanen values are on the high side to me, but they're all possible with this contract year. I would hope Rantanen would be a 8 year deal
- Why create Kamenev? He'll have just completed his ELC, so I would expect the value to be higher here (or shorter term)

Trade:
- I do think EDM is a plausible destination for Barrie, but I don't like getting Kassian back. I don't see what he offers that COL would want

Lines:
- I would expect Landeskog/MacK/Rantanen to stick together, but MacK/Rant at a minimum
- Soderberg is still a reliable player, although overpaid. Doubt he would be a scratch - more likely to be traded if he's not in the lineup
- Andrighetto (or Kaut/Bowers) would probably be in the lineup before Lewis
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 6, 2018 at 3:45 p.m.
Thread: EK 3-way Trade (COL/OTT)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JeffW</b></div><div>I agree with everything you said, I think I'm just being greedy because I think kamenev is ready to help out the team now.. remember that Van and Mtl are going to be **** this year also, and I just read that Nurse wants over 4 mill this year that's all they have in space so he said he wont go to camp without a deal, maybe this trade makes even more sense now</div></div>

I would throw Detroit into the mix of being bad too. I believe EDM will actually be okay on cap space this year, assuming that Sekera is going on LTIR. I'm guessing Nurse will be around $4M - Hanifin is the most recent comparable (although a better player), and he got $5M.

I agree that Kamenev is ready to help now, probably as a 2nd-4th winger or a 4th center. The problem is that COL has too many of those guys floating in that category (Jost, Kerfoot, Compher, Kamenev, Soderberg, Bowers?). A Draisaitl addition lets those guys slot into roles they're better slated for, without giving up any major current pieces.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 6, 2018 at 3:17 p.m.
Thread: EK 3-way Trade (COL/OTT)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JeffW</b></div><div>Ottawa gives up Karlsson, who will leave next year anyway and get back 1st 2nd kamenev and nurse, which is more then they are getting now, they say yes get better and younger..
Avs give up a possible lottery pick, guy they will lose next year in FA, and a prospect who has 1 nhl game, for a guy who's young fast and a 70+ point guy plus , they say yes
EDM gets "best" dman in league to play with McDavid, loses expensive centre and young dman... I think its questionable but they do it to get karlsson</div></div>

I agree with all this. I think EDM would be the biggest question mark - would they want to give up Draisaitl? How much do they value Karlsson? I'm assuming that EK agrees to re-sign here.
I think OTT agrees to trade if getting their pick back motivates them to embrace a rebuild and move Stone (and maybe Duchene/Anderson/others).
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 6, 2018 at 3:10 p.m.
Thread: EK 3-way Trade (COL/OTT)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JeffW</b></div><div>Now that I'm looking at the trade again I say they do pull the trigger but only if kamenev isnt part of the deal... maybe a different prospect like beaduin or O'Connor or Greer</div></div>

I don't know if you could sell any of those guys (Beauduin, O'Connor, Greer) as high enough ceilings for OTT to be interested. I think it would be more along the lines of Kamenev/Compher.

I think COL would do it because there's still a lot of uncertainty with COL's 2C slot. I would love to say that Jost or Kerfoot are capable of handling it, but I don't really believe that and Draisaitl is a proven upgrade. It would also be great to say COL would get Jack Hughes, but that's obviously not guaranteed. So if COL drops to 5-10 with OTT's pick, will that player be ready in the next couple years? Vs. picking up Draisaitl, who is still only 22 years old. With Draisaitl, you have a chance to take advantage of MacKinnon's steal of a contract for the next 5 seasons without giving up a youth movement.

I know trades should be evaluated separately, but here would be the end results for COL (if Kamenev is traded):
Traded away: Duchene, Nemeth
Received: Draisaitl, Girard, Annunen, Zhuravlyov, Bowers
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 5, 2018 at 4:30 p.m.
Thread: EK 3-way Trade (COL/OTT)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>Bcarlo25</b></div><div>this junk with colorado trading that pick needs to stop. Ottawa gives up a year of Karlsson and gets the most valuable draft pick in the league, Klefbom, and more? This is bananas. Include Mark Stone to Colorado and Duchene and a first rounder next year to edmonton (from ottawa) and maybe the other two teams think about picking up the phone. They still say no.</div></div>

1. Nurse going to OTT here, not Klefbom.
2. There's no guarantee OTT's pick will be the 1st overall, even IF they finish last. COL fans should know this better than anyone - when COL was by far the worst team 2 seasons back and landed 4th overall. On the other hand, Draisaitl has already proven he's an elite player and his age/contract fit well with COL. I agree that OTT is looking like trash for this year, but their pick could still end up dropping to 5-10 range.
Forum: Armchair-GMSep. 4, 2018 at 11:57 a.m.
Thread: Draisaitl (or RNH)
<div class="quote"><div class="quote_t">Quoting: <b>JeffW</b></div><div>EDM has like 3 mill in space and needs to sign Nurse, probably their keystone dman, do you think they trade draisaitl in order to create space for him?? They are pretty good at C with macdavid, RNH, and strome.... do you think they'd move him for a 1st, kerfoot, and kamenev or bowers or kaut??</div></div>

I think that would be an underpayment from COL (1st + Kerfoot + Prospect). I'd imagine EDM would want at least one prominent player included. I think Barrie is a good fit because we're deep on RHD and EDM is short on them - only really have Larsson. They drafted Bouchard this year and he's lined up to be a great player, but not sure how impactful he'll be for the next couple years (and EDM would probably keep him down this year to let his ELC slide).

As far as if EDM would move Draisaitl - I don't know. They should be able to sign Nurse with the cap relief from Sekera going to LTIR, but that still doesn't help their RHD issues. Maybe they would make a push for Karlsson and then would have to move Draisaitl or RNH for cap space. I would need EDM fans to weigh in.