Niemela

idk much about Girard but assuming he's a good 2nd pair guy that has some quality defensive agility this is a good deal, mind you I'm a bit lower on Niemila compared to most leaf fans. Not sure Tre would do this since he likes big Defenseman

If the Leafs end up signing Nylander, they most likely won't be able to afford Girard even though, he's just making 5M. They could make other concessions upfront like not re-signing Bertuzzi and/or Domi, but I think they would rather save on defense where they could in the following two years (Niemela's ELC would help a lot if he makes the team next year). Treliving in general likes having a big defense, and he is looking to add someone with size to the Leafs blue line. I would also add, that they have Timmins who looks like he could maybe play in the top 4 in terms of offensive puck-moving defensemen.

If/when COL needs to move Girard, I think they could get a young NHL roster player who's at least a bit more proven than Niemela. Maybe even a 3-way trade that sends a guy like Adam Boqvist to COL, with Girard going to a 3rd team.

Solid team , hopefully Landeskog can come back strong. I am also interested in seeing what Kovalenko can do in the NHL. RJo willbe another year older , might see him switch lines with Ross or a 2C brought in and Ross back to the wing. One key here is Byram staying healthy so they can feel confident moving Girard.

I'm a fan of neither team but I'd say the comparison to Hronek falls short in two key ways:

1.) Hronek is a skilled RD which was a major need for the acquiring team (TOR won't have the same kind of press for smaller, skilled D)
2.) Hronek was in the midst of his career-best season in which he was on pace for ~50pts and was handily outperforming his teammates while playing primarily with Maatta and Chiarot

Girard doesn't fulfill either criteria and has a worse of a track record of being exploited for his size & defensive shortcomings than Hronek does. As such, I'd say your expectations on the return are a tad high- even if the 1st would be a later pick. Personally, I think FLA would make a lot of sense as a landing spot for Girard despite their lack of picks.

Hronek may not have been the best stylistic comparison. But Girard easily gets a return like this. His defensive metrics are great, he's more than just a small offensive Dman.