In a way, there's a bit of similarity with Zegras this summer with Dubois last year. Not that we know Zegras is available (we don't), as opposed to knowing 100% Dubois was available, but more in the sense that the cost to acquire Zegras will be similar to the cost to acquire Dubois, as in paying a premium for a player that should be considered nothing more than a complimentary piece to a contending team.
The asking price for Zegras will be high, no one is debating that, but the cost to acquire him will be that of a foundational player, which Zegras simply isn't (if he were, we wouldn't be hearing his name in trade rumors, and he'd be considered in the same core ANA group as Carlson, McTavish, and Gauthier).
So why are we hearing his name in trade rumors??? I believe the answer came from ANA GM Verbeek's end of season press conference,
Although Verbeek was referring to his defense (having a lot of lefty's and needing more righty's), I think you can apply this as well to their core forwards. Apart from Troy Terry (and to a lesser extent Ryan Strome) in their top 6, a lot of their future core forwards are lefty's (McTavish, Carlson, Gauthier, and Zegras). Verbeek also mentioned wanting to get bigger and more physical (this comment was toward his bottom 6, but again imo you could apply this across the roster).
So it's seeming Verbeek, to get what he's asking, might be willing to move his most expendable Lefty "core" forward, similarly (to a much lesser extent) to what MTL will probably do with Barron (He's their most expendable RD prospect, so MTL will probably move him to fill another team need).
So the asking price for Zegras is becoming far clearer. Big right shooting guys (Dmen or forwards). So what does MTL have that might interest ANA:
Barron and Mailloux. Sure, both fit the bill of what Verbeek seems to be asking for (Mailloux especially) but although they might have to be included in the deal, they definitely aren't the key asset for Zegras, and would only be complimentary pieces. a key asset would still need to be added.
So what key assets fit that description from MTL?....... Habs have three. Their 2024 1st rd pick (that would be used to draft one of the top RD prospects), David Reinbacher, and Kirby Dach.
And now we've circled back to the Dubois comparisons. The rumored asking price for PLD from Cheveldayoff to Kent Huges was a Kirby Dach package deal (Which is similar to the Vilardi package they actually ended up getting), to which MTL rightly refused (Thank god!).
So if we follow Habs management's past decisions, they will pass on the asking price for Zegras. Stick to the plan, and look elsewhere.
Zegras won't be coming to MTL this offseason. move on, forget it. The cost will be too high and simply not worth it.
I agree with almost your entire assessment, except for the portion about Dach. I think it's been shown he's not durable enough to be an NHL player, let alone the kind of physical player Anaheim is looking for.
6OA + Mallioux, might be in the ballpark. I think Reinbacher and Mallioux is asking too much, you can't strip out a teams prospect pool of an entire position like that, so if it were Reinbacher, it would be a forward or a pick paired with it.
However, if MTLs not willing to part with an impact piece, Anaheim isn't willing to part with Zegras.
I agree with almost your entire assessment, except for the portion about Dach. I think it's been shown he's not durable enough to be an NHL player, let alone the kind of physical player Anaheim is looking for.
6OA + Mallioux, might be in the ballpark. I think Reinbacher and Mallioux is asking too much, you can't strip out a teams prospect pool of an entire position like that, so if it were Reinbacher, it would be a forward or a pick paired with it.
However, if MTLs not willing to part with an impact piece, Anaheim isn't willing to part with Zegras.
Dach isnt durable no argument there but your argument falls apart when you say ignore Zegras health issues and build, play style. You cant nitpick your arguments here. They really are the same player and Dach was picked even earlier than Zegras so that whole sunk cost thing doesnt apply either.
Regardless, MTL and Hughes likely have no interest as they are trying to be tougher to play against. Neither team will make this deal as BlazingBat specifically stated. Good luck getting what you think he's worth, I doubt you'll find another Marc Berge....errr Rob Blake. This is much like PLD at this point.
McDavid, Connor
$250,000)
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