I don't think the most bias hard core Leaf fans thinks Matthews, Marner and Nylander are worth what you saying...... Im not sure I follow what you are getting at here?

Kuch bet on himself and didn't take a long term deal. Kids going to get PAID after next season.

Schiefele didn't have his first great season until after he signed long term.

Matthews scored 40 in his first season and was considered a generational talent when he was drafted and nothing has happened since to prove that wrong. He's going to get paid.

losing his mind because people think William Nylander will get approx. 6 mil per season...
here is where it started

https://www.capfriendly.com/forums/thread/133186&post_id=444015

Mathews is not getting $4 mil more per year than McDavid. I would love it if he did because it would limit the leafs cap, but its not going to happen. The most he will get is a match of McDavids contract.

My apologies. I meant that he's going to get paid a ton (Similar to McDavid's contract). I don't think anyone is getting $16 mil...yet...

Oh ok got it.

Well @Britishbulldog , I think looking at the right comparables, is the way to go.

Nylander:

Ehlers, Pastrnak, Forsberg, Huberdeau, Drouin, etc.
This is more or less his range whether you agree with it or not.

Marner:

Identical to Nylander's pretty much. Maybe slightly higher fi he ahs another big year next year.

Matthews:

Draisaitl, Eichel, McDavid all comparables.
Obviously that is a big variance. He won't get McDavid money but he'll get more than Draisaitl money. Eichel pretty much set the contract up for Matthews.

Contracts have nothing to do with what you feel somebody is worth. A lot more politics goes into it than you think. For some players you simply negotiate the term but the cap hit is there whether its valid or not. Eichel is not worth 10M a year but telling your star player what's he's actually worth is a slippery slope.

Matthews @ ~10
Nylander @ ~6.5
Marner @ ~6.5

Are all very plausible.

I think those are plausible...within 500k on each, maybe....

TSN 1050 radio is my go-to station...and pretty much every hockey pundit on there says Auston is easily north of $11m, Marner is likely to at least start his negotiations at $10m and Nylander might be 7ish.

Time will obviously tell....but I think a lot will depends on their personalities and the aggressiveness of their agents. If it's all about the dollar bills the Leafs may be forced to move one of the three....I'm holding out hope that these guys are committed to building a winner in Toronto and willing to take a bit of a lower number so that the team can make a major acquisition.

I dunno...it's even scarier when predictions are that a Marner might want to gamble on himself and wait until after next year to negotiate. If he performs over a full year the way he played the 2nd half of this season, he's potentially a 100pt guy that could demand a $10m+ deal

Yes give or take obviously. 500K isn't a big variance.

Matthews at 11M is pushing it but if its for 8 years...its not terrible, i mean i know its a lot but what were ppl expecting? He'd take a pay cut to play for the Leafs? Of course not.

Marner for 10M is complete garbage and just goes to show how little they know. He can start at 10M all he wants there is literally nothing he can negotiate to prove he's worth it. NOTHING. Just by defacto he's a winger and not a center ends the convo right there. NO winger has ever earned that high % of his teams cap unless they scored 50 goals as a rookie or are considered the next in line to be that guy that scored 50.......

Finally and most importantly, all 3 guys do not have arbitration rights. If an independent arbitrator could decide for them they'd have a better chance but as his they'll get paid handsomely but not break records.

Matthews doesn't need to be a 100 pt guys to earn 10M. He's a generational former 1st overall big center who had a monster rookie season. That's enough right there to have the leafs bend over and take it.

Marner and Nylander are support guys. Wingers generally are support guys unless they are Ovechkin like.. Marner and Nylander have great regular season stats but that only gets you so far. I can see 6-7M for both as that would be in line with all their comparables and would realistic enough that GM's would have be okay with but 10M for Marner is silly. Frankly it would just be a tactic to start high and negotiate lower but there is no way realistically he gets anything close to 10M. 8M would be the all out crazy out of left field offer he could pray to get but realistically no.

I agree on almost all point...and normally would agree on the Marner point as well about him being a winger vs centre...but if you watch him play...he runs the offence like a hybrid centre/bluelien quarterback. Yes..all these guys can ask for the moon, doesn't mean they get it....just speculating that if Marner holds out on re-upping until next off-season and then puts up a 90+ pt season an 8-yr, $10m deal wouldn't be out of line

I think it still would be too much. It doesn't matter what he does. He is not setting a precedent. In order to convince someone you are worth something no other player has got before, you have to prove what you do that they don't.

What does he do that Ehlers, Kucherov, Gaudreau, Pastrnak don't do? because the little differences he has that those guys don't, those guys have attributes Marner doesn't.

Anything above 7M for a winger means he not only has good stats and is a talented player, it means he also is tough, can drop the gloves, is a leader, plays all situations, plays against the other teams best lines exclusively and can shut them down, can take faceoffs etc etc etc Thats the only way you make a case for yourself being worth more than those guys.

We haven't even got to the point of why Marner would want to go that high? Is he really going to sit out? Leafs have plenty of options in terms of talent that can replace Marner on the short term. Its not like he is the only guy on offense capable of generating offense....

He really doesn't have much leverage to go above and beyond his comparables too much and he'll start to send negative messages to the GM. If he truly wants more, is best option is to take less now but get a bridge contract. That way he can prove for the next couple years why is worth it and then force the Leafs to have to give in to his demands because he's proven something that warrants precedence.

No, of course not....I was talking hypothetically if he chooses to not negotiate until next summer...and then goes out and puts up a 100pt 2018-19 season. Then he'd have some leverage.

See, you just expressed my perspective that I was trying to get across with hyperbole. I obviously failed miserably.

As fans we are discussing 2 wingers that both have struggled to break 20 goals for 2 seasons now but play a cute, offensive style. Many are crowning them corner stones of the franchise. I see potential but there hasn't been the proof in the pudding yet that they are super stars that will help make the Leafs annual Stanley Cup contenders. In fact for me it has been opposite.

I thought I was being realistic with my evaluation of them compared to other players in the league. I am surprised at how many defend them as awesome players. Especially after the playoffs this year. Maybe I am a bit down on them. I didn't think so.

I appreciate you guys trying to talk me off the ledge as a Leafs fan. Seeing how poorly the Leafs played against Boston was disappointing and now seeing people declaring how these kids who haven't even won a single playoff series should be paid like Stanley Cup champions based simply on unrealized potential was mind boggling to me.

We'll see what happens and I will keep my opinions tempered until after they have signed contracts. Matthews is great but I feel nylander and Marner are a tier below players they are being compared to.

Yeah your failing to see both sides of that point though. Im not saying they are inferior to those players. Rather that they have proven to be, at best, just as good as those guys.

Regardless, I think you being a Leafs fans (Im assuming) is also playing a factor in this. You mention that they barely yet able to crack 20 goals as an point against them? As mainly playmakers/danglers I don't think that is a valid argument. Back to back 60+ point seasons to start both careers is something only a handful of players have done. They can use that as leverage and that is quite a feat to accomplish for both of them.

Leafs lost to a good veteran savvy team. Which they lasted 7 games against. Were the Leafs triplets dominating? No but then again there are some veterans on other teams who didn't live up to expectations either. Giroux and Voracek figuratively **** the bed against the Pens and they were one of the highest scoring tandems in the league this year.

Both Marner and Nylander have proven enough to be classified with some of the other big names in the league. They are also both very young which adds to their accomplishments.

Matthews will always be classified differently. Was he dominant? Nope. Did he have a great season? Not bad, injury screwed him up a little. But what he has is the reputation and ability you have to pay extra for, even if technically he hasn't proven all of it yet. See Eichel extension. Should of been 6-8M got 10M because at time he could be a 100pt player and teams have to bank on that. Same applies to Matthews.

So having a bad playoffs means they won't get the numbers your mentioning above. Doing everything they did do will get them to be among their peers adequately. 10-Matthews, 6-7 Marner, 6-7 Nylander.