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O'Reilly trade to Montreal

Created by: GMTD
Team: 2018-19 Buffalo Sabres
Initial Creation Date: May 25, 2018
Published: May 25, 2018
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
2$1,000,000
2$5,000,000
5$3,200,000
UFAYEARSCAP HIT
7$12,000,000
4$4,000,000
Dahlin, Rasmus
3$925,000
Trades
1.
BUF
  1. Byron, Paul
  2. 2018 2nd round pick (CHI)
  3. 2018 2nd round pick (TOR)
  4. 2018 2nd round pick (WSH)
  5. 2018 2nd round pick (MTL)
2.
BUF
    Rights to Grubauer
    WSH
    1. Beaulieu, Nathan
    2. 2018 2nd round pick (WSH)
    DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
    2018
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the MTL
    Logo of the CHI
    Logo of the TOR
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the MIN
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the BUF
    2019
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the SJS
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the SJS
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the BUF
    2020
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the BUF
    Logo of the BUF
    ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
    20$75,000,000$72,976,191$0$850,000$2,023,809
    Left WingCentreRight Wing
    $1,166,667$1,166,667
    LW, RW
    UFA - 1
    $10,000,000$10,000,000
    C
    UFA - 8
    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    RW
    UFA - 2
    $5,000,000$5,000,000
    LW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 1
    $12,000,000$12,000,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 7
    $6,000,000$6,000,000
    RW
    M-NTC
    UFA - 5
    $650,000$650,000
    LW, C
    UFA - 1
    $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$850,000$850K)
    LW, C
    RFA - 2
    $5,600,000$5,600,000
    RW
    M-NTC, NMC
    UFA - 1
    $1,600,000$1,600,000
    LW, C
    UFA - 1
    $1,000,000$1,000,000
    RW
    UFA - 1
    $1,475,000$1,475,000
    C, LW
    UFA - 1
    Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
    $2,000,000$2,000,000
    LD
    UFA - 2
    Dahlin, Rasmus
    $925,000$925,000
    $750,000$750,000
    G
    UFA - 1
    $4,000,000$4,000,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 4
    $5,400,000$5,400,000
    RD
    UFA - 4
    $1,600,000$1,600,000
    LD/RD
    UFA - 1
    $5,142,857$5,142,857
    RD
    UFA - 2
    $3,200,000$3,200,000
    G
    UFA - 3

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    May 25, 2018 at 11:08 a.m.
    #1
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    Joined: Apr. 2017
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    So O’Reilly for “parts” and Matt Moulson on line2?!
    That’s just horrible
    Moulson couldn’t even make it on line4 for us last year
    0pts in 14games
    It’s cute getting that line back together again,
    but it’s not 5yrs ago
    Moulson is toast
    sabres89 liked this.
    May 25, 2018 at 11:09 a.m.
    #2
    GetTuched
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    Interesting idea for the O’Reilly trade. Idk if MTL would be willing to move 4 good picks for him but that’s definitely something that peaks my interest considering how deep this draft is
    May 25, 2018 at 11:13 a.m.
    #3
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    Quoting: Tank4McEichel
    Interesting idea for the O’Reilly trade. Idk if MTL would be willing to move 4 good picks for him but that’s definitely something that peaks my interest considering how deep this draft is


    Montreal would absolutely take that even though those are good picks.

    Not losing a 1st rounder? Check.
    Not losing a key roster player? Check.
    Not losing a high end prospect? Check.

    Not sure how Buffalo goes from wanting a "Richards" type deal to four 2nd rounders and a veteran roster player though. I guarantee MB accepts.
    May 25, 2018 at 11:13 a.m.
    #4
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    Quoting: Tank4McEichel
    Interesting idea for the O’Reilly trade. Idk if MTL would be willing to move 4 good picks for him but that’s definitely something that peaks my interest considering how deep this draft is


    Whats the likelihood any of those seconds is as good as ror? Plus the time table, even if they hit its probably gonna be a couple years. We are just getting murrays signed with the occasional call up now. Plus montreal is rebuilding, i dont think they would trade 4 seconds.
    May 25, 2018 at 11:13 a.m.
    #5
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    If Tavares were off the market, then I think the Habs would be hard-pressed to say no to this deal. The problem is that the draft will have already taken place by the time Tavares hits the open market.
    May 25, 2018 at 11:16 a.m.
    #6
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    Likes: 10
    Odds are like 25% a 2nd round pick becomes a roster player. So playing the odds, you get a roster player. Beating the odds, you get two.
    GMTD liked this.
    May 25, 2018 at 11:18 a.m.
    #7
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    Quoting: DrZaius_PhD
    Odds are like 25% a 2nd round pick becomes a roster player. So playing the odds, you get a roster player. Beating the odds, you get two.


    And thats like "played 100 nhl games", not necessarily kicking ass and taking names.
    May 25, 2018 at 11:21 a.m.
    #8
    Thread Starter
    Eichel Tower
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    Quoting: Tank4McEichel
    Interesting idea for the O’Reilly trade. Idk if MTL would be willing to move 4 good picks for him but that’s definitely something that peaks my interest considering how deep this draft is


    Quoting: sabres89
    Whats the likelihood any of those seconds is as good as ror? Plus the time table, even if they hit its probably gonna be a couple years. We are just getting murrays signed with the occasional call up now. Plus montreal is rebuilding, i dont think they would trade 4 seconds.


    Quoting: Truebeliever
    If Tavares were off the market, then I think the Habs would be hard-pressed to say no to this deal. The problem is that the draft will have already taken place by the time Tavares hits the open market.


    Thank you for sharing your comments. As you may have determined I am making space for Tavares. Those 4 2nd rounds picks are approximately equal to the 14th over all. I prefer the 4 picks because I think Botterill will find at least 2 NHL players among them. Lastly, I really like Byron, he is fast, can score and kill penalties.
    I put Moulson with his old line mates maybe he can get 16-20 goals playing with them.
    May 25, 2018 at 11:27 a.m.
    #9
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    Quoting: GMTD
    Thank you for sharing your comments. As you may have determined I am making space for Tavares. Those 4 2nd rounds picks are approximately equal to the 14th over all. I prefer the 4 picks because I think Botterill will find at least 2 NHL players among them. Lastly, I really like Byron, he is fast, can score and kill penalties.
    I put Moulson with his old line mates maybe he can get 16-20 goals playing with them.


    Still the matter of the timing issue. Habs won't want O'Reilly until Tavares is off the market. Sabres won't want to trade ROR until they know they can land Tavares.
    May 25, 2018 at 11:31 a.m.
    #10
    Thread Starter
    Eichel Tower
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    Quoting: DrZaius_PhD
    Odds are like 25% a 2nd round pick becomes a roster player. So playing the odds, you get a roster player. Beating the odds, you get two.


    Quoting: sabres89
    And thats like "played 100 nhl games", not necessarily kicking ass and taking names.


    Thank you for your comments, they are greatly appreciated. I sort of came this trade from looking at the myriad of other O'Reilly trades, and this one seemed fair to me.

    https://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

    Actually it is about 44%. With Botterill doing the picking I think it will be closer to 60% (check out Dobberprospects to see how well he did last year).

    http://guelphstorm.com/odds-not-great-for-nhl-draft-picks

    Predicts 25% will play at least 200 games. Botterill will draft better than that.
    May 25, 2018 at 11:37 a.m.
    #11
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    Eichel Tower
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    Quoting: Truebeliever
    Still the matter of the timing issue. Habs won't want O'Reilly until Tavares is off the market. Sabres won't want to trade ROR until they know they can land Tavares.


    Thank you again, I agree with your comments.
    I sort of think teams will know if they have a good shot at JT at the draft and this trade could work well for both Buffalo and Montreal as an insurance policy. Montreal will get their center and not sacrifice any core players, and for Buffalo, with Mittelstadt (and Rodrigues to a lesser degree), O'Reilly could be an extra center. I think it is not a stretch to see that this team could be a playoff team the the picks will be the building blocks for the future.
    May 25, 2018 at 11:43 a.m.
    #12
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    Quoting: GMTD
    Thank you for your comments, they are greatly appreciated. I sort of came this trade from looking at the myriad of other O'Reilly trades, and this one seemed fair to me.

    https://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144

    Actually it is about 44%. With Botterill doing the picking I think it will be closer to 60% (check out Dobberprospects to see how well he did last year).

    http://guelphstorm.com/odds-not-great-for-nhl-draft-picks

    Predicts 25% will play at least 200 games. Botterill will draft better than that.


    Here's another article breaking it down a little more just for added info
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/bluebulletreport.com/2017/06/15/expanded-blue-bullet-draft-pick-value-chart/amp/
    May 25, 2018 at 11:55 a.m.
    #13
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    Eichel Tower
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    Quoting: DrZaius_PhD
    Here's another article breaking it down a little more just for added info
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/bluebulletreport.com/2017/06/15/expanded-blue-bullet-draft-pick-value-chart/amp/


    Thank you again. I am a stats wonk (I think you can tell from my posts), this is interesting that they study about the same period but have slightly different results. not much. As I said, I also believe that Botterill will draft really well. Lastly, again statistically thinking, more picks will product more players. So 4 seconds instead of one 1st. Lastly, this is my preference, I can certainty be convinced because I am open to discussion.
     
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