Quoting: burla13
Great post man. I love the passion, because the way you described the is how I describe the Leafs. So here are some questions
I gave gourde 4 and a 1 year deal. If he has another season like he did will he want more?
What will Vaselevski want the next year because Tampa has 2 years at a great number, 3.5
I have to assume he want Hellebuck money.
Last Sergachev at the same time as Vaselevski.
Let us say the cap goes up to 85, in 2020 which seems fair. Especially with a 650million dollar fee to come in (I want the cap up, I'm a Leaf fan!).
I am almost over now, and sergachec will want 4, 5? Mayne 6?
I like your expansion idea, I dont think he gets taken but if I a Tampa after 2 more years McDonagh will be 31 with 6 more years. I think you entice them to take him and then pay Sergachev his money and give Cal Foote what I think Liligren will get out of entry level 3.5 over 5 years.
To you comments on the wing, I disagree. Kucherov is 1st Marmer and Nylander are better than yanni gourde and palat. Look at their stats and advanced number. I'll give you Gourde being 4th but then the Leafs have an Andrea's Johnsson and we dont even know how good he is going to be.
The Leafs have the best centers and right wingers in the NHL , if you want read my forum, leads have the best right ring.
You say Selke I say human. Point might win a selke, Hyman is the best defensive forward on either team, but because he doesnt play center he wont win.
The goalies cancel but Freddy has 3 more years at 5. The Leafs are younger, faster and more cost efficient. Spray man I want to see these team play against each other in the 2nd round for the next 10 years. But even with Tampa having the best D now.
In 3 years when the Leafs roll out.
Reilly-Zaitsev
Dermott-Liljegren
Sandin-Holl/Jordan Subban/Ozzi
Rosen
They will have younger fast cheaper D. And when you have the best centers in the nhl you want young, fast and cheap D.
I have no idea about Gourde's personal needs and what kind of term he would want. I was sort of thinking 3-4 years with $4-$4.5m would be reasonable, and we wouldn't be able to afford any more than that. If he replicates his performance from last season, that's definitely taking a discount. I think he wants to stay in Tampa, and as long as he can contend for a Cup, I don't think it's that unreasonable for him to agree to that discount.
I see Gibson or Hellebuyck as a comparable for Vasilevskiy. Last season was still his first year as a starter, and he'll have to replicate it this season before he can get that contract, but his numbers two seasons ago were also really good, so it seems unlikely that this season was just a fluke. Once he proves it, I think his value should be about the same as Gibson's. Obviously salaries are expected to rise with the cap, but in a tax free state, $6.5m would hopefully be enough. Unlike Gourde, though, they couldn't just let Vasilevskiy walk if he asked for too much.
Sergachev is almost impossible to predict at this point. He was heavily sheltered and started almost exclusively in the offensive zone and played the power play, which made it easy for him to score. He handled that role as well as anyone could, but next season, I would expect him to play more minutes in a less sheltered role. He'll most likely be on a pairing with McDonagh. With Stralman last year, that pairing was able to shutdown top players for a limited amount of time (so Hedman didn't have to do everything). If McDonagh-Sergachev can continue to play that role and Sergachev can still produce offensively, he'll be worth a ton. But, considering we've only seen him in a heavily sheltered role, there's not much to predict based on, and I think his next salary could fall anywhere from $2.5m to $6m depending on his performance.
Cirelli is another similar variable. He had an impressive streak right after he was called up, but didn't produce as much during the playoffs. Some have compared him to players like Point, while other analysts suggest that he's already reached his ceiling. I don't see him getting more than $5m, unless he actually produces at Point's level (offensively and defensively) for the next two seasons and the playoffs.
I've heard that they may want McDonagh or Johnson to leave in the expansion draft. The latter is from Spokane and may like the idea of playing in Seattle, close to his home. McDonagh has a large cap hit, and may not be necessary in a few years when Foote, Cernak, and Masin are ready to play at an NHL level. I agree with your prediction for Foote, but that's another variable since we have no idea how he'll perform.
Kucherov is definitely the best winger, at least from an offensive standpoint, and it's not close. Gourde and Nylander had similar production last year, but there are key differences as Nylander is more proven (while Gourde had a really high shooting percentage), and Gourde will probably spend most of next season on the third line (he played a lot with Point on the second line last season, and thrived with that role, but so did Palat and Johnson). Then again, it is possible that Cooper will redo the lines completely and Gourde will be getting second line minutes with Point. Gourde is also the Lightning's best forechecking player (I'm not sure who plays that type of role for the Leafs). As for Palat, offensively, he's definitely not close to Marner or Nylander, but he's really good defensively. I'm not familiar enough with the Leafs to say that Nylander and Marner aren't also good in that respect, but the Palat-Point-Johnson pairing completely shutdown the Bergeron line. I distinctly remember in the playoffs last season, after the Bruins iced the puck against the Leafs, the Leafs put out the Matthews line. The Leafs lost that faceoff and the Bruins scored almost immediately. The announcers kept commenting that Babcock had taken a huge risk in putting out that line, which clearly didn't pay off. Hyman was on that line too, if I recall correctly. Obviously, with Tavares (who is more responsible defensively), the lines are completely changed, but putting out your top line should never be
that much of a risk, no matter who else is on the ice. Granted, the Palat-Point-Johnson line was on a hot streak during the last four Bruins games, but it definitely appeared that Palat was at least as good defensively as Hyman. That being said, I'm not overly familiar with Hyman and I don't know if his play against Boston is really reflective of his skillset as a whole. It's true that centers are favored to win the Selke, but my point is that the Leafs don't have a shutdown line like the Lightning were able to create with the Palat-Point pairing.
If I'm correct, Reily is much better offensively than defensively, and Zaitsev is more defensive-oriented but is decent offensively as well. That's not a bad top pairing, and both players will be in their primes in three years from now. The Lightning's defensive composition isn't exactly clear (it's obvious that Girardi, who played with Hedman last season, won't be in that role in three years), so it's hard to compare, but Hedman won the Norris Trophy, and though I expect him to decline, in three years, I still think he'd be the best defenseman on either team. Sergachev, Cernak, Masin, Foote, Liljegren, Dermott, Sandin, Subban, Rosen, etc. haven't played enough at an NHL level to warrant a comparison. The former two are the only ones who have played at an NHL level, and Sergachev was very sheltered. In three years, the Leafs will have the
younger defense, but it's too early to predict if the prospects will develop well and that will translate into an ideal defense to support the best group of centers in the League. The same can be said for the Lightning's defensive prospects, though.
I'm not saying that the Lightning are objectively a better team, but I don't think it's fair to say that the Leafs are either. I think the Lightning are better right now, but the Leafs will probably be better within a couple of years as Hedman and Stamkos age and the Leafs continue to improve. But both teams have several variables which will determine if they're the better team this season, and how their cap situation turns out in the future. For the Lightning, it's possible that Sergachev continues his production offensively but is effective defensively in a less sheltered role, Cirelli puts up Point-level stats, Gourde replicates last season, and Vasilevskiy continues his pace; I'd have trouble not predicting them to win the Cup in that case, but managing the salary cap afterwards would be an absolute nightmare. For the Leafs, it remains to be seen how Tavares fits in their system, and they're relying on promising defensive prospects making the jump to the NHL effectively, which may or may not actually happen. If it does, within a few years, the Leafs will undoubtedly be better as they have younger players on cheaper contracts (but you'd have to be really good with drafting and have a better GM than Yzerman to keep that open).
That being said, I cannot imagine a more entertaining playoff series than the Lightning-Leafs series which we'll likely see several times over the next few years.
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