I think any trade is likely in the middle of the 2, as they were both bad deals. (one moreso at the time)

I'm not in getting in a yelling match about any of this, as I have fun bantering about much of these posts, but there is far from a "current market" on deals like this. 2 trades both lopsided opposite ways proves more often than not that there's no market.

The thing is what he was talking about is seeing nylander hasn't come down from 8 the leafs never came up from 6 so they will offer 6.7 hoping he caves but they always planned to get him at that value. So even though it's a little more than he is worth it locks him up long term. Odds are nylander will counter with 7.999999 but we can only hope he excepts. But I'm trying to be realistic and if it's reported the leafs have contacted all teams and asked for their best offer they know odds are nylander won't drop his asking price enough and at this point leaf fans need to except this and prepare for what is probably going to happen soon.

Well, that's not true in many cases. Many trades have been for 3rd pairing Dmen, the Leafs have enough of those or for players with little term. Nylander's almost 5 year of till UFA is valuable. Biggest drawback to any Nylander trade, is that he isn't signed. I don't know if teams want to overpay an RFA....just like the Leafs don't.

There's an important difference between what Nylander is worth, and what you can actually get for him.

Think about the Leafs' situation right now. Matthews could easily cost more than Tavares, Marner is going to demand a ton, and you're more or less stuck with Marleau for until 2020-21. Sparks, and depth players like Kapanen, Johnsson, and Ozhiganov are about to need more money (even though none are mega-deals, it's not like you can just give them another ELC either). Matthews and Johnsson would easily consume the rest of the available cap space currently, Marner would take all of the money currently going to Gardiner and Hainsey, and you would be lucky to even keep Kapanen with the increase in the cap. That's the end of the available space. The defensive core will be inexperienced (it will be Ozhiganov and Dermott's sophomore seasons if you keep both of them, and you'll have three rookies), and, considering how offensive-oriented Reily is, you're relying on purely on those inexperienced players to do all of the defending). After Marleau's contract expires, there will be some breathing room for free agency, and players will get accustomed to the game and the playoffs and such, but that's all a few years away. Tavares and Anderson will be declining at that point. What if either of them, or Matthews or Marner, gets a career ending injury? Or they can't find a way to turn cap space into serviceable defensemen after Marleau's contract expires? Or their prospects don't turn out as well as they'd hope? Or if they get unlucky and keep missing the Cup (like the Capitals until last season and the Lightning) until Tavares is no longer elite?

My point is, the future is completely variable. This is the year for the Leafs to go for the Cup, and Nylander is extremely valuable to the Leafs. GMs aren't stupid enough to not realize that, if he's on the trading block, it's because he's not cooperating with the Leafs. That means, first of all, that the Leafs are almost forced to trade him, so teams aren't going to offer very much as they know, unless another team is outbidding them, that the Leafs will have to accept. It's the same thing that ruined Karlsson's return. Secondly, it means that they'll have to offer him a massive contract, and though there are teams that would do that considering Nylander's potential, there aren't teams eager enough to give up their best defenseman.

There's no point in pretending that a player's contract status doesn't affect their trade returns. It absolutely does, and that's exactly what we saw with Karlsson, and may be why Tavares wasn't traded before the deadline last year. If you want a defenseman of Nylander's calibre as a forward on a reasonable contract, you have to give Nylander on a reasonable contract. And if that's not an option, then you're stuck with whatever unequal return you can get.

What do you honestly think Nylander is worth? First of all, he's not an Elite caliber player and any equal producing 1st line D pairing in this league is worth more then an equal producing 1st line forward; those are just facts. So given that, you certainly aren't getting an elite defender or maybe not a 1st line pairing defender. TOR is looking at a #3 D guy for Nylander or a #4 guy with a top pick and maybe a prospect. Nylander is a 20 goal scorer and a guy that has benefited off of one of the best lines in hockey who wants $6M+ a year.

NHL seasons at age 20
https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/player-age/20-year-old-nhl-players.html

I sorted by goals scored, because 2nd assists mean little and not including them at all somewhat adjusts for differences in quality of linemates, ice time, o-zone starts, pp time.
This isn't a valuation, it doesn't even account for injuries or lockouts during 20 year-old season, but it gives you a comfortable set of comparables

Current players:
05/06 Ovechkin 52/54/106
10/11 Stamkos 45/46/91
17/18 McDavid 41/67/108
03/04 Kovalchuk 41/46/87
08/09 Toews 34/35/69
16/17 Pastrnak 34/36/70
17/18 Matthews 34/29/63
06/07 Malkin 33/52/85
07/08 Kopitar 32/45/77
05/06 Bergeron 31/42/73
14/15 Monahan 31/31/62
11/12 E Kane 30/27/57
10/11 Tavares 29/38/67
17/18 Aho 29/36/65
17/18 Boeser 29/26/55
17/18 DeBrincat 28/24/52
15/16 Barkov 28/31/59
11/12 Hall 27/26/53
14/15 Forsberg 26/37/63
16/17 Ehlers 25/39/64
08/09 P Kane 25/45/70
17/18 Konecny 24/23/47
17/18 M Tkachuk 24/25/49
16/17 Eichel 24/33/57
07/08 Crosby 24/48/72
05/06 Carter 23/19/42
99/00 Thornton 23/37/60
15/16 Reinhart 23/19/42
08/09 J Staal 22/27/49
09/10 Benn 22/19/41
17/18 Barzal 22/63/85
17/18 Marner 22/47/69
16/17 Nylander 22/39/61
03/04 Spezza 22/33/55
10/11 Stepan 21/24/45
08/09 Frolik 21/23/45
08/09 Berglund 21/26/47
09/10 B Sutter 21/19/40
15/16 Mackinnon 21/31/52
17/18 Beauvillier 21/15/36
05/06 Phaneuf 20/29/49
15/16 Duclair 20/24/44
14/15 Galchenyuk 20/26/46
16/17 Rantanen 20/18/38
07/08 Kessel 19/18/37
13/14 Nugent-Hopkins 19/37/56
15/16 Draisatl 19/32/51
07/08 Cogaliano 18/27/45
11/12 O'Reilly 18/37/55
15/16 Domi 18/34/52


You can look at that list in a lot of ways.
Not many were busts -- if there was a mistake with Nylander, it was not trying to sign him a year or two ago.
There are 50 names listed above
Not rare like top D, but very valuable.
You probably would say no to a trade of Nylander for Aho or Boeser, but there's a familiarity bias at play because they put up better numbers on worse teams..
Nylander could be good value or fair value depending on his contract.

I think a bridge deal followed by a trade is the best way to move on, but we'll see what happens

Sure with a pick and prospect added, I'm talking about the posts that talk about him being worth Pesce only and maybe an 4th added that many people are posting. Most would be a fireable trade by dubas.