I am triggered so I decided to write this up. Here it is:

1) The city and the NCC (the organization that owns the downtown land) have already accepted the development of "Lebreton flats" for commercial and residential purposes, to specifically build a new rink. However, the sole purpose of a downtown rink isn't just for the senators but for a multitude of other reason (concerts, trade shows, etc. etc. etc.) and would greatly boost local businesses. Usually, the biggest issue for teams wanting to build a new rink is getting the city and any other outside organization involved, aka what's going on with Calgary Flames ATM.

2) Once everything got approved, a long list of deep-pocketed investors (including the Devcore bid fronted by the founders of the Cirque du Soleil) came forward with a bid hoping to win the development project. Melnyk was also one of the people to put forward a bid.

3) The Devcore bid was by far the strongest bid but Melnyk made it pretty clear that if he wasn't involved with the development plans, he would keep the team in outskirts of Ottawa in Kanata (which made him the front-runner). But that being said, Melnyk did surprisingly put together a good bid himself by partnering up with a very reputable local firm in Trinity Development Group (who were the ones responsible to build up Lansdown for CFL). So yeah, Melnyk won the bid.

4) So what we're realizing is that Melnyk went into the proposal in bad faith. He can't afford to build a development of that magnitude (Even with funds from other investors including the city and his partner). So things got heated and it's looking the Bid is going down the ****ter (toilette). Which kinda sucks.

5) That being said, the city and NCC, who after meetings this week, have noticed the dysfunctional partnership caused by Melnyk. They have set a hard deadline for everyone to figure out their S***. If the issues aren't resolved, they'll essentially recompete the bid.


My speculation

Melnyk is obviously not going to work things out. The bid is going to be recompeted and won by the Circle du Soleil group. They are going to build a rink (and everything else around it). and Melnyk will eventually be forced to sell the team (or parts of it) to the new ownership.

This is just a stupid delay and Huge waste of time for everyone, including the fans. Melnyk can't do anything right. But maybe all this is for the best!!

Left out the part where Melnyk filed a 700 million dollar lawsuit against Trinity Development and John Ruddy, but aside from that you covered all the bases pretty well.

My interpretation from the outside (which is pure speculation) is that Melnyk thought that since he'd be bringing the NHL team, he wouldn't have to pay his fair share. Ruddy being an actual good businessman, put his foot down. This puts Melnyk into stall mode, hoping he can drag this out until he can come up with the money (he gets a cut of that Seattle expansion money) or until Trinity Backs down.

Once the NCC issued their ultimatum, Melnyk realizes he's probably going to lose his bid, and be left with nothing. This is the reason for the lawsuit.

#MelnykOut

I feel terrible for Sens fans having to deal with Melnyk. That said, I've felt for awhile that if Melnyk can get the team in a downtown arena he'll have increased their value quite a bit. By doing that, heck, he may actually be inclined to sell since he has a lot of money. If not, he might actually have incentive to put a good team on the ice since this drama will have ended.

Or, conversely if they stay in Kanata, he'll just call up Tillman Fertitta and Ottawa loses its reviled owner but unfortunately also its team. Or maybe Quebec City gets the call. Or perhaps years more of further indecision. What are the odds a rink is built (because it will get built) and Melnyk just resists having the Sens play there?

I saw the lawsuit after I posted this! What a joke... Trinity has done nothing but good things for this city.

Melnyk is such a snake. Cutthroat to get ahead mentally regardless of who you are.

Melnyk is so hated he's turned a Billionaire real estate developer into the hero of the common people

Yeah, couple things:

1) Ottawa is actually a really good hockey market. I can't see any scenario they move especially to Quebec City, which is essentially Ottawa (government town) with 1/3 of the population. CAR or ARZ are different stories.
2) I think Melnyk will try to resist having the Sens play there but I seriously think NHL would have to step in??? I mean it would be a bad look for the league, and it directly effects the fan outreach of the sport. Having the rink downtown would draw in people living in Gatineau Quebec which would be huge.

Also, rumors are that melnyk is looking to sell the team. But the asking price is waaayyyy too high apparently.

Honestly

Yeah I would agree Quebec City is essentially the Ottawa market but smaller. The only way a team moves there is when an owner with an unfavorable arena situation decides to sell and the QC owner group comes in to buy the team. That said, the league's owners would much rather moving a team to Houston since too many of them see "total market size" as the only stat that matters. But I could also envision that Houston is going to be the city the league's owners flaunt to get unfavorable arena deals out of the city taxpayers (at least in the struggling American markets, Canada seems a bit better at resisting this). "Take this deal or we're moving to Houston", etc.

I don't think Melnyk ever moves them out of Ottawa, but if he goes to sell I can't envision him caring too much about the intentions of whoever is offering him what he wants. But, in summary, I think the league would care very much where the team winds up. I think this is less the case with Arizona, Carolina, or even Florida who just have had way too long to make it right in their respective markets and haven't been able to.

Oh yeah, I agree.

Also, surprisingly Florida are doing pretty well financially and are pretty much a lock to stay. But yes, I get what you're saying

I can't wait for all this to be over.

So why doesn't he just do everyone a favor and sell the team? He should be in a profitable position as I believe almost all NHL franchises are worth far more now than at any point in history. He bought the team in 2003, I think. Also, Melnyk has a bad history with the city of Ottawa. He tried bring a pro soccer team and new stadium to the city but couldn't garner any support from city officials. Apparently, he's not very well liked in Ottawa...or anywhere else for that matter.

LOL yes.. and he bought Ottawa when they were going bankrupt at a "below-market" value. Right now, he could easily make over 200% profit.

But no, he isn't well liked here. It's one thing after another

Arenas are often the biggest problem with NHL teams. Arenas are expensive to maintain. They need lots of paid dates....I'm not sure what the break even point is...maybe 225 events a year.
The Markham project a NHL team didn't get off the ground, not because of expansion fee, not so much of the building of the arena but the who was going to pay for possible operating deficit of the arena for next 50 years.

The City of Ottawa and the NCC just might go ahead with the developments plan and build the arena. They might build the money loser arena....but Melynk would be the biggest loser with his Sens for 50 dates in the Kanata arena and not a great amount of more events. The Sens would be "forced" to go into new arena at some time. Whether Melynk is still the Sens owner would be in doubt.

Yes! Very well said.

Ottawa is a nice City. But it makes 0 sense to have two functioning arenas here (3 if you include the Redbacks football stadium). Both would run a deficit until the other goes bankrupt. I mean the Lebreton deficit would affect taxpayers and probably cost the mayor his job but nonetheless, it will outlive Melnyk's thin pocket.

There's an article that came out today. And it seems like Melnyk wants the arena built first and everything else after (Condos, museum, etc.). Whereas Trinity Development Group wants to do it the other way around. Obviously, there are other financial barriers, but it just goes to show how desperate the Sens need to move out of Kanata ASAP.