This is a pretty decent move.

I think this is fair, but I'm not a Toronto fan. You could lower the second to a fourth or lower too to accommodate the Leafs if necessary. This is a good deal for Toronto, and it'll fit under next year's cap, and Minnesota can afford to lose Spurgeon but adds a top six young forward.

Kapanen is living the dream right now, no change of scenery needed.

From a value perspective, the deal isn't bad however if I'm the Leafs, I'm not moving Kapanen unless the deal is perfect. He is on the cusp of really thriving with this team.

I wouldn't put the value on Kapanen too high. Hard to tell if he's more than a product of his environment.

Why are you overpaying for a guy the Leafs can't re-sign for an OS (say $4m x 2) that would cost a 2nd? What good is another winger when there is no centers on the team in 2 years?

A 2 year offer sheet won't do anything. Here is why.

The Leafs will say to Kapanen that we can't give you what you want this season, the cap won't let us. But if you sign a 1 year deal for this money, and produce again, then next season we can give you what you want.

So Kapanen would have to decide, should he move to a different team, one that is likely not as strong as TO is right now, and get bigger money, or sign a 1 year deal and then sign a longer term after Marleau is gone.

A different team would have to offer him a rather excessive deal to make a 1 year deal not appealing to Kapanen.

I wasn't referring to Kapanen who needs the change of scenery, I was referring to Eriksson Ek, although I do think that Kapanen could benefit on a team he can play top 6 minutes and with Marner and Nylander already locks he doesn't have a ton of room to grow (unless he's moved to the left side). I completely understand not wanting to move him, though!

Problem is there aren't many if any available young centers with top 6 upside. We'd likely have to trade Dumba to get a guy like that which, as we've discussed before, is not a smart move. Kapanen has some significant upside and solves our right shot issue for the time being.

Make it a 1 year deal then from the Wild. Leafs can say anything they want to him, even at $3m/yr Kapanen is hard to fit into the lineup if Tor wants to have any semblance of a d-corps. Why does KK have to be the RFA that takes a less than fair deal this offseason?

Most of the Tor ACGM's have him signing a bridge of less than $3m/yr, and usually for multi years. So if he's onlt worth less than $3m, he's sure as hell not worth Spurgeon at full price, let alone retained salary. That's what the real trade is Spurgeon for Kapanen; everything else is just noise.

We have no centers, but you traded away the best/only future NHL center within the organization, to get another wing. You undervalue Spurgeon, and then retain half on his contract on top of that? This is a Larsson for Hall trade, just we're the ones giving up Hall and getting Larsson.

Edit: JEE would be in playing for Tor's AHL team, not in the NHL.

What the Leafs would say is we'll offer you 1 year a 2.5 or something and see how things line up after Marleau is gone. Kapanen will then have to decide whether he wants to give the Leafs another year or move on to greener pastures. If I was him, I'd do a one year deal for 2 reasons. 1) His linemates are better in TO than almost anywhere else which could inflate his stats and give him even more value in a year. 2) If you impress enough there is a good chance he'll get a better long term deal with TO after Marleau is gone.

As for the defence, it'll be an issue for a while but with the number of higher end prospects TO has on the blueline (Liljegren and Sandin), TO has options coming up that can help the defence stabilize.

JEE may have once been our best center prospect, but I don't ever see him becoming more than a 3rd liner anymore. Do you honestly see him as a top 6 player? He has shown nothing that would warrant those type of minutes thus far. Sure, he can forecheck and he's good defensively but holy moly he's a black hole offensively. Can't score a goal to save his life, which could easily change on a team like Toronto. Guys like Khovanov, Shaw, Dewar, Kunin, and even Sokolov are much more promising at this point. I don't think it's fair to say JEE is our "only" future NHL center, since all of the guys I listed previously have shown signs they could be capable.

Sokolov is riding the pine half the time in the AHL right now, and is a pure wing. Dewar is a bottom-6 at best player, he's a natural wing and after a trade is being put back on wing for his CHL team. Kunin, played center, but he's a more effective winger; he's a winger in Iowa currently. Shaw is going to run into the same problem as Granny had as a center, he's too small; he's also playing as a winger in Iowa.

I could see JEE being a shutdown role 2C. Even if 3C is his ceiling the Wild don't have any of those in the system either, if they do they aren't close to ready. If you're trading for longer term future then going after more good, but not great wingers isn't going to do anything for the team. Unless you think we can just keep finding Staal's as UFAsto plug and play into the lineup?

The D core will be stabilized, but it will have a hundred question marks attached. Also, there are quite a few teams that could give Kapanen elite line mates and top six minutes. For example: Carolina: Teravainen and Aho; Dallas: Benn and Seguin; Edmonton: McDavid and RNH; Nashville: Forsberg and Johansen; Pittsburgh: Crosby and Guentzel. Honestly, if Pittsburgh offer sheeted him a one year 4-5 million deal, I think that he’d take it. He would be a perfect fit in Pittsburgh, and he’d have elite line mates, top six minutes, and a spot on a solid second PP unit. He have the same plus a spot on the first PP unit in Edmonton, but they’re not much of a contending team. The other teams all have the means to swing a deal for him. Those are my top five candidates should Toronto entertain the idea of moving him.

The D core will be stabilized, but it will have a hundred question marks attached. Also, there are quite a few teams that could give Kapanen elite line mates and top six minutes. For example: Carolina: Teravainen and Aho; Dallas: Benn and Seguin; Edmonton: McDavid and RNH; Nashville: Forsberg and Johansen; Pittsburgh: Crosby and Guentzel. Honestly, if Pittsburgh offer sheeted him a one year 4-5 million deal, I think that he’d take it. He would be a perfect fit in Pittsburgh, and he’d have elite line mates, top six minutes, and a spot on a solid second PP unit. He have the same plus a spot on the first PP unit in Edmonton, but they’re not much of a contending team. The other teams all have the means to swing a deal for him. Those are my top five candidates should Toronto entertain the idea of moving him.

And TO could just match and trade him then. Players need to ask their agents to look for offer sheets. Its not the other way around.

So he's going to be on Matthew's or JT's wing? sending him to Kadri's line isn't going to be a boost for his stats. He's not going to see PP time; which he would for other teams. Signing a 1 year OS for $4m would need a $4m QO the next year, so there is $8m for 2 years. So for Tor to match that $8m it would have to be $2.5m and then $5.5m.

Also with an OS KK could be choosy about where he goes. Tor can trade him to wherever any time they want. It would really suck going from playing in Tor to playing in AZ for instance.

I agree. Would you accept Bjorkqvist, ZAR, and a second for Kapanen or Bjorkqvist and a first?
Bellerive could be substituted for Bjorkqvist.

Just like all of those other offer sheets that happen each year.

I do agree that Kapanen is a very good target for an offer sheet but I think you are going to have to go way more than 1 year. Kapanen would I imagine only burn TO if he was getting security and a better opportunity. Playing with Kadri and being a top PK killer who can move up in the case of an injury isn't a bad situation. He could be a 3rd liner scoring 20 goals and 40 points every year on a top contender. Or go to Carolina and be expected to be a 30-40 goal scorer because no one else can score there.

I hear what you are saying but try to think of all the angles here. If I am a player who is RFA and has had 1 year (Its only a 3rd into the season), where I put up decent numbers I am not expecting to break the bank. Look at Vegas man, Karlsson scored way more points last year than Kapanen will score this year, like double the points and he is only making 5.25 on a 1 year deal. Working on that model, a 1 year deal in the 2-2.5 million range is a good show me bridge deal.

Sadly, I have no idea who those players even are. I'll have to do some research on them.

They would have to wait a year to trade him on a matched offersheet. That would put him on Tor's roster until at least July 1st of the 20-21 season. You don't think (FA) players have their agents to talk to other teams to find out their fair market values?

If the receiving club matches the Offer Sheet, they are bound to the contract details outlined in the offer, and must respect all aspects of the contract
If the receiving club matches the Offer Sheet, they cannot trade that player for 1 year from the date of first refusal

If Tor doesn't have Matthews and Marner signed by July 1st, an accepted OS for Kapanen could really put Tor in a bind if it goes to the ceiling of the cost of a 2nd rounder. Tor matches they keep KK, but can't trade him for a year. If Matthews/Marner both come in at the high end of their projected pay, Tor will be forced to move Nylander. He'll get a good return, but if I had the option I'd rather keep Nylander than KK.

This all all theoretical, and very unlikely to happen, but the NYI could be a wild card with an OS.

You are way too rigid in your thinking man.

Its never option A or B. There are as many options as your imagination can come up with.

If Kapanen signs a 4 million offer sheet I think the Leafs match. They would then have to trade, Brown and Zaitsev and maybe Johnsson as well. Which doesn't hurt the team really. When you have the following pairs on your forward ranks you are doing well. Matthews - Nylander, Tavares - Marner, Kadri - Kapanen. Plus they still have one of the better farm teams in the league meaning they appear to have more talent that can be brought up.

So the thinking of its Kapanen or Nylander and there is no other options is both lazy and misguided.

People tend to target Kapanen and Nylander for a few reasons, and one is because they are the only non-Brown forwards who carry cap and seem to be replaceable. Johnsson is going to get less than Kap unless he continues to play on Matthews’ line, so people don’t really think about trading him. Zaitsev is the only RHD on the team next year that has played more than 16 minutes consistently in the NHL. To trade him unless for an equally valuable RHD with a lower cap hit is spelling the fate of the Toronto blue line. You can’t win a cup with Reilly, a sophomore, a third pairing D, and four rookies unless some of them shock us. So I can see most people’s line of thinking. I know I’m bias, but Vancouver can handle Zaitsev and give back Tanev for half price, and there are tons of teams who wouldn’t mind Brown for a second or third, so I don’t think it’s a big deal personally. I like the idea of testing the Kapanen market because his value is at a peak currently, and there are a decent number or teams that would overpay for him. Now Nylander, that’s a different story. He’s become an untouchable and isn’t going anywhere. I wouldn’t trade Johnsson either. He’ll not be too expensive and he could be the top four LW that Toronto would really like to have.

One thing that will be the norm in TO is you'll see some depth guys have bigger years often enough. Johnson plays a full season with Matthews and Nylander and he'll go nuts! The moment his salary is higher than what TO wants to budget for that position, they can move him for future assets and promote depth from within. Of course that is operating under the assumption that Dubas still puts a premium on good drafting and player development.

Like Hyman and Brown. But Johnsson does have better upside than most LW prospects in the system. He was on pace to score over thirty points before he was put on Matthews line, and that was in a matchup role on a line with Kadri. Grund could fill in his offensive role if Johnsson wanted too much, buck I doubt he’d fill his defensive shoes. Downgrading Johnsson wouldn’t really affect the Leafs a whole lot though. The D should be their main focus with over 40 minutes a night walking away in free agency. And if that involves trading Zaitsev for a more affordable replacement, trading Brown, and trading Johnsson to open up space, then by all means, they should do it.