I'd be more interested in this phantom team that has 16.6m in cap space that can afford Matthews now and in future.

Think Devils would be virtually the only possible team...Coyotes and Canes theoretically have the cap space, but since they're one of the smallest teams in this league and sort of budget teams, I don't see them paying that much...

They may be able to next season but going forward 16.6m is a lot to spend on one person. That is why I think they would let Matthews go and take the 4 1st round picks. We could then sign Karlsson or duchene or possibly both. At 16.6m I think duchene Karlsson and 4 first round picks seems like a decent compensation.

So to the author of this agm; no... Matthews goes.

The Leafs are gonna keep one of the back up goalies, either it be Sparks, or the new goalie, the new goalie is worth 1.3m and Sparks is still on a 2 way contract at 675k

No teams that are currently any good can make this offer. So i say take the 4 first round picks, likely going to have lottery picks the first year atleast considering matthews will be playing by himself.

It's not the max deal I would be worried about. Let's say Toronto has 12m budgeted for Matthews which is more than Tavares and less than McDavid & they have Marner at 8.5 -9m (he may get more).

The thing I would be worried about is a team offering 13.5 or something like that or 10 for Marner. Those numbers are a lot more manageable for teams & a team like Nashville could do that (not saying they would) & They could deal one of their Stud D and/or Johanssen and probably end up with better picks than they would give up.

It would force Toronto to pay more of lose the the player and mess with their budget.

Scenario - Nashville: Trade Johansen to Carolina for a 1st ( approx 15th overall + more picks prospects). They could stop there (or trade Turris for lesser value), and/or Trade Subban and get similar (if not better comp.) Clearing 23m. They basically trade Subban, Johansen & next four 1st's (presumably all 24 pick or worse for Matthews and two middle firsts + 2nd's/3rd's/prospects.

This can be done by a few teams but Philly, CBJ and Nashville could all upgrade by adding matthews and moving one of their older guys that would still return something decent (giroux/voracek/CBJ will have space if Panarin/Bob walk at which point they could move Wennerberg or Dubois for some decent picks)

That being said, I don't think it happens, but it's not the max deal I would fear, it's a team forcing them to pay more than they wanted to.