WHAT IF

Forums/Armchair-GM

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Created by: Club_de_Hockey_le_Canadien

Team: 2019-20 Colorado Avalanche

Initial Creation Date: Feb. 16, 2019

Published: Feb. 16, 2019

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

Someone crunch the numbers, what are the chances!

Free Agent Signings

RESERVE LIST		YEARS	CAP HIT
Henry, Nicholas		3	$775,000
Olhaver, Gustav		3	$725,000

RFA	YEARS	CAP HIT
Rantanen, Mikko	8	$9,500,000
Kerfoot, Alexander	5	$4,000,000
Compher, J.T.	2	$2,000,000
Kamenev, Vladislav	2	$1,000,000
Andrighetto, Sven	3	$1,250,000
Zadorov, Nikita	2	$2,250,000
Dries, Sheldon	4	$1,250,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Francouz, Pavel		2	$1,000,000

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
Hughes, Jack		3	$925,000
Kakko, Kaapo		3	$925,000

Buyouts

Brooks Orpik: $1,500,000

Buried

Mark Barberio: $375,000 ($1,450,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
23	$83,500,000	$66,388,095	$0	$1,032,500	$17,111,905

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Landeskog, Gabriel $5,571,429$5,571,429 LW, C M-NTC UFA - 2	MacKinnon, Nathan $6,300,000$6,300,000 C UFA - 4	Rantanen, Mikko $9,500,000$9,500,000 RW, C UFA - 6
Kerfoot, Alexander $4,000,000$4,000,000 LW, C, RW UFA - 4	Hughes, Jack $925,000$925,000	Kakko, Kaapo $925,000$925,000
Jost, Tyson $885,833$885,833 ($850,000$850K) C UFA - 1	Kaut, Martin $894,167$894,167 RW RFA - 4
Calvert, Matt $2,850,000$2,850,000 LW, RW UFA - 2	Söderberg, Carl $4,750,000$4,750,000 C, LW M-NTC UFA - 1	Compher, J.T. $2,000,000$2,000,000 C, RW UFA - 4
		Andrighetto, Sven $1,250,000$1,250,000 RW, LW UFA

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Zadorov, Nikita $2,250,000$2,250,000 LD/RD UFA - 1	Barrie, Tyson $2,750,000$2,750,000 RD UFA - 1	Grubauer, Philipp $3,333,333$3,333,333 G UFA - 2
Girard, Samuel $728,333$728,333 ($182,500$182K) LD/RD UFA - 1	Johnson, Erik $6,000,000$6,000,000 RD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 4	Francouz, Pavel $1,000,000$1,000,000 G UFA - 1
Cole, Ian $3,450,000$3,450,000 LD/RD UFA - 2	Timmins, Conor $925,000$925,000 RD RFA - 2

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Dries, Sheldon $1,250,000$1,250,000 C UFA - 1
Nieto, Matt $1,975,000$1,975,000 LW, RW UFA - 1
Kamenev, Vladislav $1,000,000$1,000,000 C RFA - 1

Feb. 16, 2019 at 1:42 p.m.

Club_de_Hockey_le_Canadien

Joined: Jan. 2018

Posts: 2,565

Likes: 865

Correct me if I'm wrong but, I think there is a 0.7% chance that this happens.

Feb. 16, 2019 at 1:48 p.m.

TiBo23

TiBo

Joined: Oct. 2018

Posts: 445

Likes: 154

Rantanen could get an offer sheet. The Ave's might be lucky to get him at 9.5.

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Feb. 16, 2019 at 1:49 p.m.

TJTwolf

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 9,566

Likes: 4,573

Makar is likely to be in before Timmins. Timmins has been really unlucky with the concussion as it was a chance for him to make a place for himself before Makar is signed.

Club_de_Hockey_le_Canadien liked this.

Feb. 16, 2019 at 1:52 p.m.

Ctgoalie

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 63

Likes: 17

Quoting: Club_de_Hockey_le_Canadien

Correct me if I'm wrong but, I think there is a 0.7% chance that this happens.

Your correct, if the season ended today there is a 0.7% Colorado ends up with both the 1st and 2nd overall picks.

Club_de_Hockey_le_Canadien liked this.

Feb. 16, 2019 at 1:53 p.m.

DiehardRedWingsFan58

Banned

Joined: Jun. 2016

Posts: 33,053

Likes: 8,999

So the Ottawa 1st #1 overall and the Colorado 1st #2 overall Yeah don't think so.

Club_de_Hockey_le_Canadien liked this.

Feb. 16, 2019 at 2:01 p.m.

Ctgoalie

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 63

Likes: 17

Quoting: Ctgoalie

Your correct, if the season ended today there is a 0.7% Colorado ends up with both the 1st and 2nd overall picks.

Actually its closer to 1.3% chance because Ottawa's pick could become either a first or a second as well as Colorado's. Still EXTREMELY unlikely.

Club_de_Hockey_le_Canadien liked this.

Feb. 16, 2019 at 2:03 p.m.

UpsideDownQue

Joined: Aug. 2017

Posts: 8,440

Likes: 6,060

Quoting: Club_de_Hockey_le_Canadien

Correct me if I'm wrong but, I think there is a 0.7% chance that this happens.

Quoting: Ctgoalie

Your correct, if the season ended today there is a 0.7% Colorado ends up with both the 1st and 2nd overall picks.

This is incorrect. You are ignoring the possibility that the COL pick is #1 and the OTT pick is #2, you are also not considering that the probability of getting the 2nd pick increases after the 1st pick is announced.

P(COL getting top 2 picks) = P(COL getting #1)*P(OTT getting #2 given that COL already got #1) + P(OTT getting #1)*P(COL getting #2 given that OTT already got #1)

It ends up at around 1.44% (based on wikipedia lottery odds from the 2018 draft)

Ctgoalie and Club_de_Hockey_le_Canadien liked this.

Feb. 16, 2019 at 2:10 p.m.

BCAPP

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 9,382

Likes: 3,695

Quoting: TiBo23

Rantanen could get an offer sheet. The Ave's might be lucky to get him at 9.5.

Exactly.

Why do people think Marner is going to get over 10 million for 5 or 6 years when Rantanen who has been miles better will except under 10 for 8 full years?

And the answer can't be MacKinnon. Even if MacKinnon is better than Tavares the difference isn't signficant

Feb. 16, 2019 at 3:16 p.m.

fckmattcooke

Joined: May 2018

Posts: 925

Likes: 171

the most unrealistic part of this is Ghustav Olhaver getting an elc lol

Club_de_Hockey_le_Canadien liked this.

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