Those projections are typically low and I think with this year’s batch of rfa’s you can throw them out the window.

The zaitsev Trade is a bit ambitious.

I really like the nucks Trade.

The spurgeon Trade is looking like a good start. I think lindgren is actually a very good piece. His progression in Europe is on track and I think he will continue to grow.

Kral should be replaced, I don’t think he does anything for this trade. Right handed forward prospect would probably fit nice. Maybe SDA?

And a conditional 2nd in 2021 if spurgeon re signs.

Seems like a big price to pay for one year of Spurgeon.....five years of Kapanen and a 1st.

Really like your description, Leafhype. Seems pretty spot on to me, and I can imagine how your rationale is the context that is driving decision making for the leafs right now.

The guy's proposal in the other thread included Kral and the 1st round pick that was a conditional 1st from a 2nd to begin with if Spurgeon resigned. Seems reasonable to me but SDA is maybe a prospect in place of Kral that makes the deal more appropriate.

IIRC the contract projections were mostly very accurate for last year. My only caveat to here is that their projections show 3.4x4 is the most likely outcome for Johnson and like 2x4 for Stralman. So maybe it's Johnsson that gets traded instead of Kapanen and it pushes Kapanen to play LW or something and you look for a different value project for 2nd pair RD. Maybe that means you project to have Dermott there and just try to tread water until he's healthy.

I wonder what you have to trade with Zaitsev to make a deal tbh. Maybe you have to do like Zaitsev + a pick for a lower pick. I think he might have some value in places at least to the point that the trade isn't a total death sentence to make

I never understand all these Zaitsev trades. Seems like folks think the Leafs have to give up something to dump Zaitsev and then overpay just to replace him. Seems to me the Leafs would be 100 times better off keeping Zaitsev and if cap is needed trade some high cap for future assets.
Zaitsev isn't as bad as so many make out, though his term makes him a tough trade. I think most of rants against Zaitsev are unwarranted, gee he plays heavy minutes with a good team but somehow folks thinks fringe RHD on other teams are so much better.

The issue is paying to moves zaitsev then paying to replace him, there isn’t much available in ufa. After all is said and done is the upgrade worth the cost? I think if spurgeon is re signed on a 5 year contract it may be but his ask may be too high for a player exiting his prime.

I’ve not been using the upgrade zaitsev idea in most of my agm’s, just doesn’t seem practical. Looking for cheap filler to play under him always seems to be beneficial. Whether or not dubas sees it that way I’m not sure.

I know you are heavy on the nylander trade. I know “high cap” is code for nylander. A trade of kappanen and brown with a cheap bottom pair rhd gets us compliant depending on contracts of course.

Muzzin sure seems like a luxury we can’t afford. I don’t see dubas trading him but it sure seems to fit the bill of high cap. I love his physicality but unless he or Rielly play the right side it sure isn’t a good fit.

When a player has a bad contract, teams have to pay to move it out. Just how the league works.

To get what Toronto needs (top 4 right handed d-man) it would cost any team a good amount because it's a position in such high demand. But I wouldn't be going more than Kapanen and a 1st for Spurgeon. Even with an extension that's a hefty price to play and it makes the Leafs better.

Zaitsev is bad. He's average offensively, average defensively but absolutely god awful at breaking the puck out of his own end. He can't make good passes, and when he makes a pass it usually puts the forwards in a bad spot to make the next move. He frequently seems to be scared to take a hit to make a play. & he needs to be paired with a good d-man to make him look good. That's why he played with Muzzin. Because he could make the simple pass over to Muzzin and not be responsible for making the breakout pass. Zaitsev is a #4-5 d-man in the NHL but that means he's still a NHL d-man. Those are teachable things to fix, but Zaitsev hasn't shown in over 2 years that he's fixed them. At most, he should be getting $3.5M for another 3 seasons which means he's overpaid by about $1M and 2 seasons. Not a terrible overpayment, but nonetheless, it's overpaid and Leafs will have to give up something of value to move him. But he has to be moved for cap reasons. There's no hiding that and that hurts his value more, which either means a lesser return or that Toronto has to add more to move him. It's pretty common sense.

A realistic trade comparison is the Dion Phaneuf trade to Ottawa. Toronto gets back either a low level prospect or 3rd pairing d-man, but uses their financial muscle to take back multiple short term contracts that add up to Zaitsev's number that Toronto can afford to bury in the minors and pay where another team can't. Which is why I've always said Zaitsev to Ottawa makes so much sense. Sens send Condon ($2.4M), Demelo ($900K) and a late round pick to Toronto for Zaitsev ($4.5M), an average roster player (Petan or Moore) and a couple C+ prospects. Toronto takes back $3.3M in cap, but Condon is being paid $2.4M by Ottawa to play in the AHL, #Melnyktoocheap for that, Toronto takes the contract back, bury Condon in the AHL and it saves them $3.125M in cap space from Zaitsev, but they pay the full salary of Condon. Toronto also gets a competent roster d-man in Demelo because as we seem to agree, Zaitsev is still a NHL d-man and has some value so a replacement isn't out of the question in a deal. Then Ottawa gets a young roster player and a couple prospects or picks to help their rebuild. Zaitsev would be a good fit to play with either Chabot or Brannstrom in the future and he also helps Ottawa hit the floor of the cap. It seems like the perfect fit for a deal

Man Zaitsev is gruesome, like a decent showing in 7 games against Boston doesn't make me forget 3 years of him dragging down the results of anyone he plays with. Addition by subtraction is a real thing. If you can move Zaitsev for almost nothing and then roll dice on something like a Stralman rebound contract I can't see how that's possibly not worth it? I'm not wholly convinced you can't throw a dart at a board of RFA/UFA right handed D like Tim Heed and get at the very least the same results for a fraction of the cap hit. I get that Zaitsev plays alot of minutes on a good team but he gets buried in them. Muzzin a borderline top pairing D calibre player for a 4 million dollar cap hit but you're considering that we need to move him? Zaitsev's cap hit is higher and he's a #6, borderline #5.

As for Spurgeon, You're aren't getting someone like Spurgeon to replace Zaitsev. I'm trying to replace Zaitsev with Stralman here. I could hear arguments for running Dermott in that slot as well? Or a huge list of other players. Spurgeon is a monster of a player and I might feel comfortable about what his dropoff will be on a 5 year deal into his age 33-34 seasons based on his starting point and his style of play. But you could target any RD on a team that's set to move them (either because they have a surplus or because they're going to be a bad team - these names that get tossed around alot like Colin Miller, Rasmus Andersson, Faulk, etc). Realistically you're getting Spurgeon to fill the role that you're losing in Gardiner - a top pairing level D except now on the side you're weaker.

I disagree with the premise that's he's average offensively. I don't think anyone would call Giradi an offensive stud, comparison seems reasonable to me I guess. https://imgur.com/a/GMrvO7p

The concept of the Ottawa trade isn't necessarily wrong I just don't think it's likely to happenn with them specifically. I could be wrong though. Ottawa isn't the only cash poor team where Zaitsev for actual dead money to hit the floor would be appealing though. Zaitsev still needs to get paid alot in actual $, so it's not like a dream Marleau situation where his cap hit is high but he's owed no actual $. I'm optimistically of the belief that there are more old school leaning (see: dumb) front offices that see value in Zaitsev like NYI, Florida or whatever that would be willing to trade for him at some sort of gain to the Leafs or at least minimally negative value.

He's been used improperly in an offensive role. That's why the numbers and analytics are low. If he played PP minutes like he did in his rookie year, he'd produce more. That was a coaching mistake but he fell lower on the depth chart because of development from Reilly and Gardiner. Leafs only used 1 d-man on both PP units for the majority of the last 2 seasons

Ottawa was just one team. There's a lot of teams that fit the bill of being more likely to dump multiple contracts to take on Zaitsev's deal

This is the problem with leafs nation. Muzzin who was top pairing is bodrline in Toronto, zaitsev who was strong defensively without the puck covering up for gardiner poor decisions and muzzin’s sloppy play is no longer 2nd pair but maybe not even nhl good.

Sometimes I wonder if we even deserve a top pair rhd. We will just treat him like trash too. Maybe Toronto doesn’t deserve nice things...

Chart does not factor in powerplay results, it's for even strength gameplay last season.



Having a WAR value in the late 20s - early to mid 30s among defensemen would make you a top pair defensemen to borderline top pair D yes. IIRC Gardiner's numbers dipped a bit this year towards the 30s and usually him and Muzzin were closely ranked this year. If we don't deserve nice things because we trash our good players unfairly your evaluations of both Jakes is a better example of it than me saying Zaitsev is bad as seen through both data and the eye test.

Thank goodness coaches don’t pair Dmen based on advanced stats....

The point is we trash every player... they all take turns. Zaitsev has a decent year, saved our asses a few times. But obviously still the worst defencemen to ever lace skates.