Forums/Armchair-GM

Is there a stat for goals per quality shot

Created by: BOLTLOVER1
Initial Creation Date: Nov 28, 2019
Published: Nov 28, 2019 at 4:59 am
Team: 2019-20 Tampa Bay Lightning
Team Explanation
FIRSTLY .. Happy Thanksgiving to all.

I know there is a stat for goals per shot % (S%) .. but is there one for goals per quality/danger shots %? (QS%)

In a analyzing how bad Tyler Johnson Matthew Joseph and Yanni Gourde are for Tampa .. it occurs to me this stat would be helpful

For example .. Tyler Johnson has a S% of 9.8% which is awful .. lowest of any regular forward by far and behind 2 defensemen which is almost impossible!!!! ..but I think it worse for GS% .. and for Gourde no doubt. NOTE Stamkos S% 3rd worst on team and helps explain team WORST plus minus. ALSO Gourde S% is a ski slope .. dropped EVERY year .. 20% to 14% from first partial year to this year .. what a disaster...

With all this focus on the "modern stats" and shots .. it occurs to me classic goal scoring.. or not.. when you SHOULD SCORE .. has been lost.

COMMENTS?
Trades
TBL
  1. Hamonic, Travis
  2. Jankowski, Mark
Additional Details:
Nice size and fit pieces for playoffs
CGY
  1. Kucherov, Nikita
  2. Johnson, Tyler
Additional Details:
Trade him now before there is no more value. If he doesnt waive .. bury him and being up Volkov. Cap neutral and play a player who needs NHL time.
Buyouts
  • Matthew Carle: $1,833,333
  • Vincent Lecavalier: $0
Buried
  • Mike Condon: $1,325,000 ($2,400,000)
DRAFT YEARROUND 1ROUND 2ROUND 3ROUND 4ROUND 5ROUND 6ROUND 7
2020
TBL
VAN
TBL
TBL
TBL
DET
TBL
OTT
TBL
2021
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
NSH
2022
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
TBL
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES BONUSESCAP SPACE
23$81,500,000$70,730,474$0$1,362,500$10,769,526
Left WingCenterRight Wing
TBL
Killorn, Alex
$4,450,000
LW
NTC
UFA - 4
TBL
Stamkos, Steven
$8,500,000
C
NMC
UFA - 5
TBL
Palat, Ondrej
$5,300,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 3
TBL
Maroon, Patrick
$900,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
TBL
Point, Brayden
$6,750,000
C, RW
RFA - 3
TBL
Gourde, Yanni
$5,166,666
RW, LW, C
NTC
UFA - 6
TBL
Joseph, Mathieu
$728,333
LW, RW
RFA - 1
TBL
Paquette, Cédric
$1,650,000
C, LW
UFA - 2
TBL
Conacher, Cory
$700,000
LW
UFA - 1
TBL
Cirelli, Anthony
$728,333
C
RFA - 1
TBL
Verhaeghe, Carter
$700,000
C, LW
RFA - 1
CGY
Jankowski, Mark
$1,675,000
C
RFA - 1
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
TBL
Hedman, Victor
$7,875,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 6
TBL
Shattenkirk, Kevin
$1,750,000
RD
NTC
UFA - 1
TBL
Vasilevskiy, Andrei
$3,500,000
G
UFA - 1
TBL
McDonagh, Ryan
$6,750,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 7
TBL
Rutta, Jan
$1,300,000
RD
UFA - 1
TBL
McElhinney, Curtis
$1,300,000
G
UFA - 2
TBL
Coburn, Braydon
$1,700,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 2
TBL
Schenn, Luke
$700,000
RD
UFA - 1
TBL
Sergachev, Mikhail
$894,166
LD
RFA - 1
TBL
Cernak, Erik
$697,500
RD
RFA - 1
CGY
Hamonic, Travis
$3,857,143
RD
UFA - 1

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Nov 28, 2019 at 5:06
#1
BOLT LOVER
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,738
Likes: 305
Obviously pre coffee button mistake including Kuch in above trade .. Kuch has "woke" last few games and looks more engaged .. interesting it without Stamkos in lineup as friction between those 2 exists
Nov 28, 2019 at 5:30
#2
Joined: Aug 2018
Posts: 1,030
Likes: 249
I'm tired of Joseph tbh. I don't understand why he is still in the lineup.

Johnson has been so off lately. Hopefully he gets his sh1t together soon.
Nov 28, 2019 at 9:45
#3
Hawks and Isles Fan
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 1,645
Likes: 577
chartinghockey.ca might have something like that but you might have to connect some dots. I know they have one chart that looks at shot quality, so maybe you can compare that to xGF or something
BOLTLOVER1 liked this.
Nov 28, 2019 at 9:47
#4
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 2,824
Likes: 902
Ik there's hdSV% on a bunch of sites, idk about hsS%
Nov 28, 2019 at 9:47
#5
best poster
Joined: Jul 2019
Posts: 1,602
Likes: 903
lol
Nov 28, 2019 at 10:03
#6
The evil stats guy
Joined: Jun 2018
Posts: 4,461
Likes: 1,903
"but is there one for goals per quality/danger shots %?"

I may be mis-understanding you here but it seems like you want xGF (expected goals for).
If you go here one of the charts might have what you are looking for (just filter to TB only so that it isn't a cluttered mess).

If you are looking for a raw shooting %, I think you are looking in the wrong place. s% can vary wildly day-to-day, week-to-week, and season-to-season, so the best measure of his play would be in his chances rather than his completion in that specific area. I'm not even sure a % for high danger chances are kept due to % variability and how little it means play wise.
Nov 28, 2019 at 10:58
#7
Thread Starter
BOLT LOVER
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,738
Likes: 305
Thanks for above but I just question the whole premise of only looking at shots and expected crap .. by doing this you are assuming every player will have the same success rate from a shot 15 foot in the slot (using this as example of danger shot) .. u are turning the goal scorer into a commodity which is wrong.. way wrong.. there is a WIDE difference between Ovechkin and Paneran with Yanni Gourde and Tyler Johson on ACTUALLY converting the 15 foot slot shot ..
Nov 28, 2019 at 12:23
#8
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 447
Likes: 129
I find it kind of unreasonable to complain about Gourde when he’s been a point per game since being paired with Maroon and Paquette. That line is giving everything anyone could want, even if you consider Gourde’s salary. Johnson on the other hand needs to get things together really quickly.
BOLTLOVER1 and Zwui21 liked this.
Nov 28, 2019 at 1:05
#9
Thread Starter
BOLT LOVER
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,738
Likes: 305
Quoting: I_Know_Nothing_About_Hockey_Or_Any_Sport2
I find it kind of unreasonable to complain about Gourde when he’s been a point per game since being paired with Maroon and Paquette. That line is giving everything anyone could want, even if you consider Gourde’s salary. Johnson on the other hand needs to get things together really quickly.


Gourde perfect 4th liner .. said that all along .. only 32M LT NTC in history of league for a 4th liner in FIRST year of 6 year 5.1M AAV contract for a 27 year old rookie ...
Nov 28, 2019 at 4:07
#10
Joined: May 2017
Posts: 447
Likes: 129
Quoting: BOLTLOVER1
Gourde perfect 4th liner .. said that all along .. only 32M LT NTC in history of league for a 4th liner in FIRST year of 6 year 5.1M AAV contract for a 27 year old rookie ...


If Gourde keeps things up and proves that this wasn’t just a lucky streak, he’s well worth the money regardless of what line he’s on. Johnson on the other hand has one point this month with elite linemates and makes almost the same salary.
Nov 28, 2019 at 5:03
#11
Thread Starter
BOLT LOVER
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,738
Likes: 305
Edited Nov 28, 2019 at 5:25
Agree Tyler Johnson.. and Joseph .. are anchors on this team .. for Gourde name another teams 4th liner making 30M and over 5M AAV .. with 5 years left on contract .. Neal and Lucic contracts not that bad .. Gourde is one of worst contracts in NHL .. Wagner from Bruins just resigned for 1.5 M AAV and poor Paquette .. a MUCH more valuable player for Tampa gets around 1.5M .. Gourde is JBB mistake that is indisputable and cost us JT Miller who has DOUBLE points of Gourde and would be Tampa's leading scorer!!!! .. we will have to sacrafice Killorn next for Gourde contract? ..
 
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