Major risk with MASSIVE reward

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Created by: Random2152

Team: 2020-21 Edmonton Oilers

Initial Creation Date: Mar. 27, 2020

Published: Mar. 27, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

I have ZERO idea what other pieces are moving where. It could be that FLA pays due to EDM taking on the longer, bigger contract but Bob could rebound and has only had one down season so they may be able to convince Holland they shouldn't pay.

Just an interesting idea I had.

The retained salary would go down to under 750k against the cap if Neal were to be bought out going by the Phaneuf buyout (with the Sens retaining) So remeber you have ~1M more cap space than the AGM estimates.

I know it is tight to the cap (and assumes the cap is unaffected) but I do not know Oilers contract projection or their prospect pool well enough to properly fill out the roster so take that with a grain of salt. The point of the AGM is the Bob trade as an idea. What are your thought Oilers fans?

Free Agent Signings

RFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Bear, Ethan		2	$3,000,000
Athanasiou, Andreas		2	$3,675,000

UFA		YEARS	CAP HIT
Ennis, Tyler		2	$1,600,000
Gagner, Sam		1	$700,000

CREATED		YEARS	CAP HIT
Cannon, Fodder		1	$700,000

Trades

EDM

FLA

Neal, James ($1,750,000 retained)

Additional Details:

FLA buys out Neal, Cap hit against the Oilers goes down to ~725k

EDM

OTT

Chiasson, Alex
2020 3rd round pick (EDM)
2022 2nd round pick (EDM)

Buyouts

Andrej Sekera: $2,500,000
Benoit Pouliot: $1,333,333

Retained Salary Transactions

Milan Lucic: $750,000 (12.5%)
James Neal: $1,750,000 (0%)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2020
2021
2022

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
21	$84,500,000	$85,111,032	$341,534	$230,000	-$611,032

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Ennis, Tyler $1,600,000$1,600,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	McDavid, Connor $12,500,000$12,500,000 C UFA - 6	Kassian, Zack $3,200,000$3,200,000 RW UFA - 4
Nugent-Hopkins, Ryan $6,000,000$6,000,000 LW, C UFA - 1	Draisaitl, Leon $8,500,000$8,500,000 C, LW UFA - 5	Yamamoto, Kailer $894,166$894,166 ($230,000$230K) RW RFA - 1
Benson, Tyler $808,333$808,333 LW, RW UFA - 1	Athanasiou, Andreas $3,675,000$3,675,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Archibald, Josh $1,500,000$1,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 2
Nygård, Joakim $875,000$875,000 LW UFA - 1	Khaira, Jujhar $1,200,000$1,200,000 LW, C UFA - 1	Gagner, Sam $700,000$700,000 RW, C UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Nurse, Darnell $5,600,000$5,600,000 LD UFA - 2	Bear, Ethan $3,000,000$3,000,000 RD UFA - 2	Bobrovsky, Sergei $10,000,000$10,000,000 G NMC UFA - 6
Klefbom, Oscar $4,167,000$4,167,000 LD UFA - 3	Larsson, Adam $4,166,666$4,166,666 RD UFA - 1	Koskinen, Mikko $4,500,000$4,500,000 G M-NTC UFA - 2
Jones, Caleb $850,000$850,000 LD/RD UFA - 2	Russell, Kris $4,000,000$4,000,000 LD/RD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1

Scratches	Injured Reserve (IR)	Long Term IR (LTIR)
Cannon, Fodder $700,000$700,000

Mar. 27, 2020 at 2:36 a.m.

aadoyle

Hakuna Matata

Joined: Feb. 2020

Posts: 34,560

Likes: 21,131

I would not trade for Bob that contract was a huge mistake. He should have stayed with Columbus and signed for less

Mar. 27, 2020 at 2:38 a.m.

Wqrrior

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 10,387

Likes: 4,004

Decent idea. I would structure it differently though.

Bob with retention and (lesser prospect than Noel) for Koskinen and Neal with retention. FLA will still need a goalie, and EDM won't want two guys in the overpay boat. Koskinen's value is more 0 than negative, but Bob's retention (about 500k) would cost the prospect downgrade. Ownership might be against retention, but that's probably the only way that contract gets moved.

For the sake of this thread, I ignored all movement and trade clauses.

Why the Chiasson payment? He remains a viable bottom 6 option for most teams, and anyone not in a cap lock might be interested in what he offers. You shouldn't have to pay to move him.

Random2152 liked this.

Mar. 27, 2020 at 2:59 a.m.

Random2152

Thread Starter

Just Keep Swimming

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 9,354

Likes: 5,679

Quoting: Wqrrior

Disagree on Chiasson but that's small fries.

FLA is rumoured to want to cut down 10mil in payroll, so I don't think adding Mikko is within their budget. Noel had a poor d+1 season so they may see him as expendable and being able to lose that much salary might make a ton of sense for Fla, especially if Bob doesn't bounce back. If he does, EDM make out like bandits.

So while I am fully aware other pieces might be moving in this trade, I don't think it is the ones you suggest with ret on Florida's part

Mar. 27, 2020 at 3:29 a.m.

Wqrrior

Joined: Feb. 2019

Posts: 10,387

Likes: 4,004

Quoting: Random2152

I'm aware of the paycuts, but the buyout spreads that salary, especially if Neal's short term retention exceeds Bob's. There would be a decent difference - consider further that it's likely that one/both of Hoffman and Dadanov won't return. However, in this case it would be EDM, not FLA that remains not willing. I can't see them considering Bob unless Koskinen is involved in some way.

Mar. 27, 2020 at 4:02 a.m.

Random2152

Thread Starter

Just Keep Swimming

Joined: Jun. 2018

Posts: 9,354

Likes: 5,679

Quoting: Wqrrior

I don't know. The potential upside is insane for EDM here. A resurgent Bob, even for a handful of seasons plus Noel for a cap dump is insane value. Looking at Florida's AGM they need as much money as possible open so they can ice a competitive roster within their budget so I'd imagine that if this were not enough then non salary pieces would be moved.

Maybe something conditional. Like if Bob doesn't rebound EDM gets a pick or two but if he does Fla gets a pick

Mar. 27, 2020 at 8:24 a.m.

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,133

Likes: 7,782

Quoting: Wqrrior

I don't think you've been paying attention. Of the 30 goalies that played in at least 35 games this year, Koskinen's Sv% ranks 6th. All of the 5 goalies ahead of him will make substantially more than his $4.5M next season. Thats a value contract, no way would Holland downgrade his goaltending AND take on that huge cap-killing contract for the dubious benefit of paying Neal $750k for the next 6 year to not play for the Oilers.

justaBoss liked this.

Mar. 27, 2020 at 8:28 a.m.

CD282

Joined: Mar. 2017

Posts: 24,133

Likes: 7,782

Quoting: Random2152

It a HUGE risk with a tiny reward. Over the past 2 seasons Bob has posted a .907 Sv% while Koskinen has posted a .911 Sv%. I don't see any upside here.

Bob will be 32 at the next training camp and has 6 more years with a $10M cap hit. Nobody has any interest in taking that on.

F50marco liked this.

Mar. 27, 2020 at 9:40 a.m.

F50marco

Joined: May 2015

Posts: 19,614

Likes: 6,752

Quoting: CD282

Agreed. He may revert back to Bob of old which would be amazing but if we were all betting men, what would those odds be? IMO not very good. Even if he did miraculously put up vezina numbers his first year, how long do you think he would sustain it for? Once again, not very long IMO.

I simply would not risk this. Not worth the potential reward as the risk heavily outweighs the reward here.

CD282 liked this.

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