The purpose of this AGM is to test the cap feasibility of adding Connor for Byram. A real-life trade might include picks or other add-ons as well, but for the purpose of this exercise I've just used a 1-for-1. Feel free to share you thoughts on the trade value in the comments if you wish.
Below is a summary of the offseason moves for 2020 and 2021, and some of my thoughts on whether or not a trade like this would work.
****** 2020 OFFSEASON ******
- UFA: Nieto, Wilson, Namestnikov, and Barberio
- Resign: Burakovksy, Nichuskin, Jost, Graves, and Zadorov
- Trade Byram for Connor
- Trade Kamenev and Compher for futures (keep Jost at 3C as he is cheaper)
- Promote Kaut
****** 2021 OFFSEASON ******
- UFA: Bellemare, Calvert, Cole
- Promote Bowers, O'Connor, Timmins
- Expansion Draft: Zadorov selected by Seattle (see below)
- Sign a 6D in UFA to replace Zadorov (or promote Zhuravlyov if he's ready).
Expansion Draft Protection (7+3+1):
- Mackinnon, Rantanen, Landeskog, Connor, Kadri, Burakovsky, Jost
- Makar, Girard, Graves (Johnson waives NMC, and maybe we pay Seattle to not select him)
- Grubauer
Exposed: Donskoi, Zadorov, Johnson, Francouz. Seattle likely pick Zadorov.
Paying for Makar (+$9m) / Landeskog (+$2m) / Grubauer (+$1m), would require $12m in cap opened up.
- Calvert (-$2m), Bellemare (-$1m), Cole (-$3m), and Zadorov (-$2m) moved (via UFA/ED) and replaced by Bowers (ELC), O'Connor (ELC), and Timmins ($1.5m). This saves ~$8m.
- Newhook (ELC) can replace one of Donskoi ($3.9m), Jost ($2m, 3C) to save another $1-3m. Newhook could perhaps even make Kadri ($4.5m) expendable as soon as 2021. Keep in mind that Sakic was comfortable trading Barrie before Makar had played a regular season game, and he might feel the same way about moving Kadri if Newhook plays well in the 2021 playoffs.
- If needed we can also move Johnson ($6m), though that would depend on Timmins being ready.
Looking even further ahead, 2023 would be the next time we need significant capspace to pay for Mackinnon. At that stage Johnson's $6m comes off the books and pays for most of Mackinnon's raise. By then the cap will also probably have risen due to the Seattle expansion and new TV deal, so that should help cover some new contracts.
****** THOUGHTS *******
This COULD legitimately work, especially in the short-term. However, from 2021 onwards sacrifices would need to be made to the roster depth, and we'd be betting on ELC's slightly more than otherwise. I think Colorado CAN add a $7m forward for the foreseeable future, BUT, it would be tricky to do at the expense of an ELC defenseman like Byram without compromising the D group and roster depth.
Looking at the D group, there is a risk that Graves regresses after his break-out season, and with Cole, Johnson, and Zadorov being expensive/aging there could be considerable uncertainty created on the blueline going forwards. Moving Byram would also put more pressure on Timmins needing to be a hit as a Top 4 Dman, which is also risky given his concussion history. If Graves were to regress to being a 3rd pairing D and Timmins has recurring health issues, then we'd be left with Girard and Makar as our only legitimate top 4 defensemen going forwards. Conversely, if Graves (or Zadorov for that matter) and Timmins are legit Top 4 D's then our D group would be looking really solid, even without Byram.
Byram's ELC is clearly tremendously valuable to this team, and so ideally we'd try to pursue other avenues of adding a top 6 forward that don't involve giving up key prospects that will contribute on ELC's (i.e. Byram and Newhook). Trading Byram for a player needing ED protection also likely means that we would lose a slightly better player in the ED than we otherwise would. But adding a player like Connor to the forward group could possibly put us over the top in the next few years so it might be worth it.
Note that Timmins is only included in this AGM as a "scratch" to show depth. Avs usually carry only 1F and 1D extra, and without Timmins as an "extra" scratch Avs would be $900k below the $81.5m cap ceiling.
All-in-all I think it's a really intriguing trade idea, which I can see really good arguments for and also against, and so I'm really curious to hear some thoughts in the comments below!
Colorado should 100% do it and worry about the cap later. Connor is a very good winger that Byram would have a lot to prove to match up to him. Winnipeg gets bent over here
Colorado should 100% do it and worry about the cap later. Connor is a very good winger that Byram would have a lot to prove to match up to him. Winnipeg gets bent over here
This is what I was going to say, your getting another winger of Rantanens quality and your adding a fairly low cap hit for the points he produces. I think that in the first 2-3 years your defiently going to be the winners of this trade as o don't think that Byram would have an immediate affect like Makar did or Hughes. Defiently an interesting trade proposal
Good Analysis, tough question, and yes intriguing. I think WPG would pass to be perfectly honest. Poink stepped up his game in a huge way last year. I don't see why that can't continue. They also drafted an offensive Dman last year too. Their cap situation is a bit tough to forecast, but I don't think they'd need to trade away one of the best forwards for cap purposes.
Also, I have my concerns about Bowen Byram now. AND I was 100% a Bowen Byram guy that thought the Hawks should have drafted him with the #3OA. I was wrong. I'm now very happy with the choice they made. Byram had a decline this past year. He was FOR SURE looking back to form at the end of the season, but he was sent down to work on his defensive game and I'm not so sure that was accomplished. The Vancouver Giants are clearly a worse team than last year, but have mostly the same guys. Sure, every year a guy or two leave, but he's supposed to be the leader there. He's far from a bad prospect. I just think there's more questions than answers after another year in the WHL.
You really did your homework on this. Great work. However for MacKinnon, you won’t need as much space as you think. He’s already stated bat he’s cool taking a pay cut
Good Analysis, tough question, and yes intriguing. I think WPG would pass to be perfectly honest. Poink stepped up his game in a huge way last year. I don't see why that can't continue. They also drafted an offensive Dman last year too. Their cap situation is a bit tough to forecast, but I don't think they'd need to trade away one of the best forwards for cap purposes.
Also, I have my concerns about Bowen Byram now. AND I was 100% a Bowen Byram guy that thought the Hawks should have drafted him with the #3OA. I was wrong. I'm now very happy with the choice they made. Byram had a decline this past year. He was FOR SURE looking back to form at the end of the season, but he was sent down to work on his defensive game and I'm not so sure that was accomplished. The Vancouver Giants are clearly a worse team than last year, but have mostly the same guys. Sure, every year a guy or two leave, but he's supposed to be the leader there. He's far from a bad prospect. I just think there's more questions than answers after another year in the WHL.
This is all the rhetoric you get about Byram. He didn’t have a down year. He went back to junior and as requested spent the 1st half of his season focusing on his defense per Avs request. And because his offensive numbers weren’t lighting the world on fire people play the he had a down season. Well then in the last month and half of play he averages 2 points a game. He is almost unanimously the best defensive prospect in the league and ranked in the top 3 overall in the league. I like Dach, but imo Chicago is going to get an up close and personal we should have drafted him in Byram for the next decade.
You really did your homework on this. Great work. However for MacKinnon, you won’t need as much space as you think. He’s already stated bat he’s cool taking a pay cut
He has said he may take a discount. He isn’t taking a pay cut, the NHLPA wouldn’t allow that.
Her is my take. If Colorado wants to be the Tampa Bay Lightning of the next 4 years they make the move. If they have aspirations of being a dynasty they don’t. Connor undoubtedly makes them better immediately. When playoff teams luck into top 4 picks like the Avs did and get to add a talent like Byram and then hit another homerun in Newhook you don’t let that kind of talent escape especially considering the cap.
This is all the rhetoric you get about Byram. He didn’t have a down year. He went back to junior and as requested spent the 1st half of his season focusing on his defense per Avs request. And because his offensive numbers weren’t lighting the world on fire people play the he had a down season. Well then in the last month and half of play he averages 2 points a game. He is almost unanimously the best defensive prospect in the league and ranked in the top 3 overall in the league. I like Dach, but imo Chicago is going to get an up close and personal we should have drafted him in Byram for the next decade.
No one questions his offensive ability. When he's averaging 2 points a game...they went 1-4 their last 5 games. So did he develop defensively? Maybe you're right. There's no crystal ball. I can't tell you the lottery numbers either. Every player develops at their own pace. It's just that we agree on most of the "rhetoric". Where we disagree is...did he accomplish what he was sent back to do?
FWIW Compher isn't a Michigan native but a native of Illinois, Compher was Captain of the University of Michigan Ice hockey team though. Wouldn't mind him in Detroit though. Looks like a fairly good offer for him.
Colorado should 100% do it and worry about the cap later. Connor is a very good winger that Byram would have a lot to prove to match up to him. Winnipeg gets bent over here
winnipeg gets bent over here !? no way, connors so one dimensional, next thing im going to hear is that laine is better than matthews
No one questions his offensive ability. When he's averaging 2 points a game...they went 1-4 their last 5 games. So did he develop defensively? Maybe you're right. There's no crystal ball. I can't tell you the lottery numbers either. Every player develops at their own pace. It's just that we agree on most of the "rhetoric". Where we disagree is...did he accomplish what he was sent back to do?
He got better defensively on a worse team. At the WJC he was put into a roll of defensive stopper and played well including being a beast in the gold medal game.
Sorry if I came down hard, but all I see on here when someone wants to include Byram in a trade is he had a ‘down’ year. He didn’t. His game grew as his ranking status shows.
FWIW Compher isn't a Michigan native but a native of Illinois, Compher was Captain of the University of Michigan Ice hockey team though. Wouldn't mind him in Detroit though. Looks like a fairly good offer for him.
I would push for Detroit’s 2nd and maybe turn the 3rd into a 4th but that’s nitpicking.
Good Analysis, tough question, and yes intriguing. I think WPG would pass to be perfectly honest. Poink stepped up his game in a huge way last year. I don't see why that can't continue. They also drafted an offensive Dman last year too. Their cap situation is a bit tough to forecast, but I don't think they'd need to trade away one of the best forwards for cap purposes.
Also, I have my concerns about Bowen Byram now. AND I was 100% a Bowen Byram guy that thought the Hawks should have drafted him with the #3OA. I was wrong. I'm now very happy with the choice they made. Byram had a decline this past year. He was FOR SURE looking back to form at the end of the season, but he was sent down to work on his defensive game and I'm not so sure that was accomplished. The Vancouver Giants are clearly a worse team than last year, but have mostly the same guys. Sure, every year a guy or two leave, but he's supposed to be the leader there. He's far from a bad prospect. I just think there's more questions than answers after another year in the WHL.
Thanks for the comments, really grateful to see some interesting discussion!
It's a myth that Byram had a bad season. He focussed more on defensive adjustments on D in the first half of the season, and then utterly destroyed the WHL in the 2nd half with 2 ppg pace.
From a roster standpoint it makes sense for Winnipeg to sacrifice a winger for a top pairing D. Their defense is weak, but they have arguably 4 first line calibre wingers in Laine, Connor, Ehlers, and Wheeler. Building around wingers to build a contender is much harder than building around centers and Dmen. Acquiring Byram would set the Jets up on D for a long time, with Heinola and Pionk as the other two big building blocks.
I would push for Detroit’s 2nd and maybe turn the 3rd into a 4th but that’s nitpicking.
Yzerman would never deal our 2nd? Our 2nd only moves if Yzerman is interested in a player in the late 20's where we could package perhaps another 2nd like Edmonton's to perhaps move into the high 20's or so like in the 26 to 29 range or so. Though i personally feel that Yzerman will keep all of our picks.
He got better defensively on a worse team. At the WJC he was put into a roll of defensive stopper and played well including being a beast in the gold medal game.
Sorry if I came down hard, but all I see on here when someone wants to include Byram in a trade is he had a ‘down’ year. He didn’t. His game grew as his ranking status shows.
No worries! This is all just fun conversation! It's all good! His playoff run last year was legendary. Each round he got better and better. I was a Bowen Byram guy and wanted CHI to draft him @ #3OA. I 1,000% admit that. I'm just now trying to question my own thinking. COL has amazing prospects and is set up VERY well for the future. Newhook is a stud too.
You really did your homework on this. Great work. However for MacKinnon, you won’t need as much space as you think. He’s already stated bat he’s cool taking a pay cut
Thanks MMXD, glad you appreciate it.
Quoting: Xqb15
He has said he may take a discount. He isn’t taking a pay cut, the NHLPA wouldn’t allow that.
Quoting: MMXD
You know what I mean. I can totally see him going for 8Mish
Regarding Mackinnon, he might take a small paycut to keep the team competitive, but I don't foresee anything less than $12m at a minimum. If the cap rises he could even be looking at around $14m.
Here's the real answer: Does Colorado NEED Connor to win the cup? if yes, make the trade, if no then don't make it.
Colorado is good enough to potentially win a cup without this trade so sacrificing Byram to get Connor is just over kill. Keep your prospects, develop them, as they come up move out older players and keep the synergy of the team.
A team like Buffalo is in the right situation to sacrifice a young stud for a current one. They haven't made the playoffs in forever and need to get back in the playoffs asap. That makes sense for them. they don't have time to be patient. Colorado has all the time in the world. (Assuming Mack stays obviously)
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