Is it? The original post suggested moving a younger player for an older player is a bad idea. I just showed it isn't. Because the swap at forward is a downgrade (as was Rolston and Andreychuk), but Ellis is an upgrade in D.... just like a 40 year old Bourque was.

My comparison holds water.

You get a high end RD and a guy that more than capable of replacing Marner. He won’t put up 90+ points but he’s a top 6 goal scorer. I think the question is does NSH do this trade.

But you're ignoring the fact that Liljegren is apart of the trade. Marner is the best guy in the trade with obviously the worst caphit but the best player regardless. Liljegren will be better than Arvidsson over the next 5ish years so Leafs are giving the 1st and 3rd best players in the deal. Ellis is no doubt a top pairing guy on a good deal but the Leafs have put so much into developing liljegren, doubt they wanna trade him right before he makes the jump

You’re ignoring the fact that Liljegren isn’t a top prospect. He’s a solid prospect but you’re overvaluing him. He might be a top 4 D.

Rolston hit 70pts once in his career and 60pts 3 times.... He had 22pts in 61gp the year he was traded. He was also 27 y/o. Nowhere near a good example. Once again trading a young star forward for a 30 y/o defenceman is NEVER a good idea!

You are trading away 8-10 years of elite play making for 2-3 years of high end defense? Not a good idea! Bad trade for leafs.

Do you want to win a cup or not? It’s a very good trade for the leafs. And Arvidsson plays a style that works in the playoffs. But you can continue losing in the first round if you’d like.

Arvidson is an easily replaceable player and has no real value in this type of trade... 55 playoff games 24pts meh. This trade actually reduces the odds of winning a cup for the leafs as it shortens there window of opportunity to win by several years. Every playoffs involve some luck so the longer you are competative the better your chances of winning. The leafs are still very young... Give them a chance to develop!

Nash traded Seth Jones for Johansen and people don't think they will trade Ellis for Marner!! SMH!!!

Bourque was 39 at the time. Don't leave out facts to support a poor arguement. By your standard that deal is a bad idea, which given how tight the 2000 Cup Final was.... the Avs don't win it without Bourque.

Would you make the for a 30 year old Chelios? A 30 year old Blake? A 30 year old Leetch? A 30 year old Lidstrom? You're standard, you don't.

Ellis isn't any of them, but Marner isn't Gretzky, Lemieux, Hawerchuk or LaFontaine.

Ellis is a move you have to entertain. Period.

You just find guys that have scored 30 goals on trees? I’m case you didn’t know Marner has never scored 30 goals. Sure stay young and continue being a playoff team but never get it done. Or be aggressive and fill your biggest need while also buying low on a 30 goal scorer. Also you said Liljegren is better than Arvidsson but he’s not a top prospect. He’s a solid prospect.

I consider Marner for Makar but Ellis is a definite NO. He does not fit the time frame for the leafs to win the cup. Those Dmen you mentioned are all Elite generational players Ellis is not that caliber. In a cap world Ellis doesnt fit with leafs "window"

LOL

Arvidson had a huge down year this year.... I havent checked out his stats but that suggests to me he maybe injured?? His value is not that of a 30 goal scorer at the moment. Marner is 23 y/o.... The same age as Arvidson when he first hit 30 goals. I havent mentioned Lilypad.... I really dont see him as a top prospect probably a bottom 6 dman. I have no problem with Ellis and would love to have him on the team but in a cap world it just doesnt work.

Which is why I added Arvidsson because it’s to buy low on a 30 goal scorer to replace Marner in the top 6 while also getting a legit top RD.

You can’t even keep up with yourself. You’ve mentioned Liljegren plenty. “Why did we wast all this time developing him just to trade him?”

Ummmm... That wasnt me.

You’re right that was Terry. You jumped into his argument. My bad. Still would be dumb if TOR to turn down a legit top RD and a potential 30 goal scorer because you’ve become attached to Marner.

this is one sided if you ask me.
Arvidsson is a 30 goal guy we know he can get there.
Ellis is a pretty solid 1RD.

The cost of defense is high. It is what it is, supply demand.
You are basically offering Marner and a guy who hasn't done anything and is still a prospect.
I mean if TOR is looking for is defense, then here is my thing on the value.
Liljegren is gonna be 21.
Statistically defense men peak earlier than forwards. I think the peak age is 24-25 as to forwards it's like 26-27. Then they decline slower.
So if you think Liljegren can play, now is not the time to trade him. If you are moving him, you are basically saying him at his peak isn't getting the job done. Which really makes me kind of chirp his value here.

How many players were a career PPG after about 4 seasons? Arvidsson has scored 30 twice but the Leafs have no lack of goal scoring forwards between Matthews, JT and Nylander, an elite playmaker fits their system better.

What does play style does Arvidsson have that makes him good in playoffs? Not even 0.5ppg in playoffs, zero points last time he made it to the dance and he's a 5'9 player that doesn't play physical! We have a prospect in Nick Robertson who could come up next season and probably be as effective as Arvidsson on an ELC.

Ellis is no question an elite RD right now but he really only took that next step this season. I know he's been good for awhile but only 1 season of Norris caliber play. Liljegren is right on the cusp of being a legit NHLer and as you said, he'd only be a top 4 but if you're the Leafs thats all you need. We have enough elite dmen on the left side and just need someone that can play a two way game which Lilly has been playing in the AHL.

All in all, only reason to trade Marner is the cap hit which I'll admit is ugly but I'd rather pay a top winger a little extra per year then ship him off after another 90+ point pace season

Dmen definitely don't peak at 24-25, we see plenty of guys peak much later. Ellis is a pretty good example seeing as he just had his best season at 29

yeah ok, you go argue with the stats heads who break down the numbers. Be sure the give them all your data.
I think I'll do most teams with analytic departments like TOR do, and trust the numbers.

Alright buddy go have another drink

The only question here is does NSH feel the need for a shake up?

My thoughts here are that TOR is an immediate SC favorite after this trade. Ellis solidifies the D and Arvidsson isn’t a bad top 6 fed if he returns to form. For NSH they add a 90 point fwd to a team that struggles scoring. It is a risk because Ellis is so good and Arvidsson has been in the past. I think Josi Ekholm and Fabbro still gives them a solid Dcore. As for Liljegren, it’s not TOR giving up on him more that it’s Ellis is good and they are in a win now mode.

Also there could be other smaller parts to the deal if need be or it could be Holl over Liljegren.

Lol Robertson isn’t scoring 30 next year but good one. Arvidsson goes to the front of the net. He’s not sniper. Hence why he’s a goal scorer and not a playmaker. Going to the net is what plays in the playoffs.

I don’t know which “elite” defensemen you’re referring to on the leafs. They don’t have any hence the need for one especially right handed. I know you’ll argue Rielly is elite but he’s not. He just had an elite season. He wasn’t very good this year. And has only been solid earlier in his career.

And Idk if you know but wingers aren’t the reason teams win the SC.

I don't think teams trade player like this based on a "shake up."
You move a role player when you do that. As for Marner adding more scoring, he's not a goal scorer he's an assist guy. So I don't know if that really equals out. On top of it it's a huge cap hit.
Call me old school. I don't like giving huge cap hits to guys not netting the puck.
Regardless, I think it says something of the valuation being made on Liljegren. If you beleive in the player, you don't trade him. You play him. He spent the last 3 years playing 40+ games a season in the AHL. At this point, he should be ready. There are a ton of guys coming into the league roughly his age. Hughes, Makar, Marino is 1 year older.
He's either there or he's not. And if your goal is defense, and you are moving him. You are telling me he's not. That's the way I see it.