Projections Forwards

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Created by: Bigshame

Team: 2020-21 Montreal Canadiens

Initial Creation Date: Oct. 21, 2020

Published: Oct. 21, 2020

Salary Cap Mode: Basic

Description

These projections are without considering the possibility of injuries.
Line 1A of Drouin Suzuki Anderson getting from 16-18 minutes a game splitting Duties with line 1B Tatar Danault Gallagher also getting from 16-18 minutes. Suzuki Drouin Anderson Tatar Gallagher getting pp time Danault and Suzuki getting pk time
Drouin 22 g 41a 63p
Suzuki 24 g 51 a 75p
Anderson 32 g 19 a 51p
This is our go-to line when we need a goal or momentum shift
Tatar 19 g 32 a 51p
Danault 14 g 34 a 48p
Gallagher 28 g 27a 55p
This line does what it does best, shuts down top lines and produces nightly.
Line 3 Byron Kotkeniemi Toffoli gets from 14-16 minutes a game with Toffoli and Kk getting some pp time, Byron and Kk getting some pk time.
Byron 21 g 17 a 38p
Kotkaniemi 23 g 22 a 45p
Toffoli 26 g 27 a 53p
Easily one of the best 3rd lines in hockey able to expose other teams with lack of depth and produce consistently.
Line 4 Lekhonen Evans Armia getting from 10-12 minutes a game all of them getting pk duties Armia may get some pp time.
This would be an incredibly reliable option in any situation with Armia being nearly impossible to take the puck from and has a great shot lekhonen has an incredible motor and forecheck as well as Evans the young spunk with energy and ability to finish plays. all of these guys are capable of moving up the lineup in case of injury at any point.
Lekhonen 11 g 17 a 28p
Evans 13 g 16 a 29p
Armia 16 g 22 a 38p
Extras Weal Peohling Belzile no projections

Buyouts

Karl Alzner: $3,958,333

Buried

Jordan Weal: $325,000 ($1,400,000)

Draft	Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
2021
2022
2023

ROSTER

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK

EMBED

TEXT-EMBED

ROSTER SIZE	SALARY CAP	CAP HIT	OVERAGES	BONUSES	CAP SPACE
22	$81,500,000	$74,066,309	$0	$3,137,500	$7,433,691

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Drouin, Jonathan $5,500,000$5,500,000 LW, RW UFA - 3	Suzuki, Nick $863,333$863,333 ($425,000$425K) C UFA - 2	Anderson, Josh $5,500,000$5,500,000 RW, LW UFA - 7
Tatar, Tomas $4,800,000$4,800,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Danault, Phillip $3,083,333$3,083,333 C UFA - 1	Gallagher, Brendan $3,750,000$3,750,000 RW, LW NMC UFA - 1
Byron, Paul $3,400,000$3,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 3	Kotkaniemi, Jesperi $925,000$925,000 ($2,500,000$2M) C UFA - 1	Toffoli, Tyler $2,125,000$2,125,000 RW, LW UFA - 4
Lehkonen, Artturi $2,400,000$2,400,000 LW, RW UFA - 1	Evans, Jake $750,000$750,000 C UFA - 2	Armia, Joel $2,600,000$2,600,000 RW, LW UFA - 1

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Chiarot, Ben $1,750,000$1,750,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 2	Weber, Shea $7,857,143$7,857,143 RD UFA - 6	Price, Carey $10,500,000$10,500,000 G NMC UFA - 6
Kulak, Brett $925,000$925,000 LD/RD UFA - 2	Petry, Jeff $5,500,000$5,500,000 RD M-NTC, NMC UFA - 1	Allen, Jake $4,350,000$4,350,000 G UFA - 1
Edmundson, Joel $875,000$875,000 LD/RD M-NTC UFA - 4	Juulsen, Noah $700,000$700,000 RD UFA - 1
Romanov, Alexander $894,167$894,167 ($212,500$212K) LD RFA - 2	Mete, Victor $735,000$735,000 LD/RD UFA - 1

Special Teams

Power Play 1
Toffoli, T.		Suzuki, N.		Anderson, J.
	Weber, S.		Drouin, J.

Power Play 2
Gallagher, B.		Kotkaniemi, J.		Armia, J.
	Petry, J.		Tatar, T.

Penalty Kill 1
	Byron, P.	Danault, P.
	Chiarot, B.	Weber, S.

Penalty Kill 2
	Lehkonen, A.	Kotkaniemi, J.
	Edmundson, J.	Petry, J.

Oct. 21, 2020 at 7:27 a.m.

MountRoyal

Flood Geologist

Joined: May 2016

Posts: 449

Likes: 232

Looks great!

Oct. 21, 2020 at 7:50 a.m.

CallingOutHomers

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 932

Likes: 320

if Julien is rolling 3 lines like that, I don't see Evans getting 10-12 minutes at Center a game.

Also, I think they'll try Toffoli on LW and Roll Armia up and Byron down.
if that doesn't work, then they go with your lineup, assuming Byron returns to what he was.

Campabee and MONSTER1974 liked this.

Oct. 21, 2020 at 7:52 a.m.

Subbanator7667

Subbanator

Joined: Jul. 2017

Posts: 7,445

Likes: 3,402

This all really hinges on Suzuki and Kotkaniemi being able to produce like that. Especially your 75 points for Suzuki, that's a huge number.

I see this as more realistic 2022-2023 projection, next year is still gonna have growing pains.

Oct. 21, 2020 at 8:00 a.m.

Bigshame

Thread Starter

BergDaMan

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 800

Likes: 232

Quoting: Subbanator7667

Everywhere Suzuki has gone he’s progressed fast and produced at elite levels. You could be right but I think kk went through his growing pains last year and put in a lot of work to avoid that again. They’ve been surrounded with talent so I think that helps a lot in avoid setbacks moving forward.

Oct. 21, 2020 at 8:02 a.m.

Bigshame

Thread Starter

BergDaMan

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 800

Likes: 232

Quoting: KMMHL2012

Based on not playing anyone over the 20 minute mark it allows the 4th line to get time as well. Evans likely gets the least amount out of anyone but my numbers were based on lines not individual players

Oct. 21, 2020 at 8:38 a.m.

BorisBagel

Boris Bagel

Joined: Oct. 2016

Posts: 2,865

Likes: 614

Don't see Juulsen starting the season with Habs, needs to play in Laval.

Oct. 21, 2020 at 8:45 a.m.

habs_need_Scoring

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 1,624

Likes: 797

Quoting: BorisBagel

Don't see Juulsen starting the season with Habs, needs to play in Laval.

Agreed gonna take him some time to get back into form. Also given what depth in defensive forwards i dont see KK getting any PK time. Suzuki and Danault will be regulars with evans jumping in as needed. And three 20 goal scorers on the third line would be amazing but i think that may be a bit of a reach, will shall see though.

Oct. 21, 2020 at 8:46 a.m.

Xqb15a

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 11,474

Likes: 9,109

Not to rain on your parade but MTL isn’t going to have 7 20 goal scorers especially with 3 on the third line and in particular when it is very likely next season is a truncated season again.

Oct. 21, 2020 at 9:13 a.m.

CallingOutHomers

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 932

Likes: 320

Quoting: Bigshame

I'm fine with no 20 min mark, but I don't think you can roll the top two lines in your "lower" scenario and expect that kind of projected production, I think they need to be in the 18-19m range.
and subsequently the third line should be in the 16m range... leaving you with 8-10m for the 4th.

I still think goal projections might be a little high, that's 249 goals for, which in the 18-19 season was about 13th OA.
because another 25 goals from the backend puts them in the top 5 range, and I don't see that.
I think Byron, Evans, and Armia all produce less, Byron from injury return, and the others from limited exposure.

but overall, i agree with where you're going with this.

Oct. 21, 2020 at 10:08 a.m.

#10

Bigshame

Thread Starter

BergDaMan

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 800

Likes: 232

Quoting: KMMHL2012

Ya that’s also considering no injuries I’m positive that will happen to at least a couple guys and that will change the outcome. I based it off my projections over 82 games no injuries. And ya I’m thinking positive for sure

Oct. 21, 2020 at 10:09 a.m.

#11

Bigshame

Thread Starter

BergDaMan

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 800

Likes: 232

Quoting: Xqb15a

Not to rain on your parade but MTL isn’t going to have 7 20 goal scorers especially with 3 on the third line and in particular when it is very likely next season is a truncated season again.

Based on no injuries and 82 games. It’s not likely all guys play 82 games and that will change the outcome of my projections

Oct. 21, 2020 at 10:10 a.m.

#12

Bigshame

Thread Starter

BergDaMan

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 800

Likes: 232

Quoting: habs_need_Scoring

Quoting: BorisBagel

Don't see Juulsen starting the season with Habs, needs to play in Laval.

Juulsen is not waivers exempt. If they send him down he’ll be claimed instantly

Habs4ever liked this.

Oct. 21, 2020 at 10:47 a.m.

#13

Habs4ever

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 2,728

Likes: 1,195

Last season the entire team had 208 goals for. The defensemen had 42 goals. The forwards had 166 goals. This year you expect the forwards to go from 166 to 249??????? wow massive increase. I hope they do but not placing money on those numbers!

CallingOutHomers and Xqb15a liked this.

Oct. 21, 2020 at 10:48 a.m.

#14

BorisBagel

Boris Bagel

Joined: Oct. 2016

Posts: 2,865

Likes: 614

Quoting: Bigshame

Juulsen is not waivers exempt. If they send him down he’ll be claimed instantly

He hasn't played in NHL for almost 2 years and has an injury history. Never an NHL regular ... only 13 games GP in Laval this past season. What NHL team will drop a roster player to claim him?

Oct. 21, 2020 at 12:23 p.m.

#15

Bigshame

Thread Starter

BergDaMan

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 800

Likes: 232

Quoting: Habs4ever

Again this is based on 82 games and not accounting for injuries. Yes I may be a tad optimistic

Oct. 21, 2020 at 12:40 p.m.

#16

CallingOutHomers

Joined: Sep. 2020

Posts: 932

Likes: 320

Quoting: BorisBagel

He hasn't played in NHL for almost 2 years and has an injury history. Never an NHL regular ... only 13 games GP in Laval this past season. What NHL team will drop a roster player to claim him?

1) you presume all teams are holding 23 man rosters in the flat cap era
2) any team not holding a 23 man roster with enough cap room might just throw the dice as he's still a good prospect.

obviously that team would have to hold a 21-22 man roster and have cap room, but there may be a few of those, or even a 23 man roster that has a waiver exempt player they can send down...

Oct. 21, 2020 at 12:54 p.m.

#17

Habs4ever

Joined: Jan. 2017

Posts: 2,728

Likes: 1,195

Quoting: Bigshame

Again this is based on 82 games and not accounting for injuries. Yes I may be a tad optimistic

optimism is good. Heck I hope this comes true! if it does that means MTL should be going deep in playoff's!

Oct. 21, 2020 at 6:35 p.m.

#18

Xqb15a

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 11,474

Likes: 9,109

Quoting: Bigshame

Again this is based on 82 games and not accounting for injuries. Yes I may be a tad optimistic

I think tad optimistic is an understatement. I didn’t check this last season because it was cut short, but in 18-19 only 2 teams managed to have 7 20 goal scorers. Like the optimism but that’s like drinking the kool-aid optimistic.

Oct. 21, 2020 at 6:57 p.m.

#19

Bigshame

Thread Starter

BergDaMan

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 800

Likes: 232

Quoting: BorisBagel

He hasn't played in NHL for almost 2 years and has an injury history. Never an NHL regular ... only 13 games GP in Laval this past season. What NHL team will drop a roster player to claim him?

Uhh guaranteed Detroit who would be the first team in the waiver wire

Oct. 21, 2020 at 7:04 p.m.

#20

Bigshame

Thread Starter

BergDaMan

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 800

Likes: 232

Quoting: Xqb15a

Let me put it this way. God pray none of this happens. Drouin gets hurt misses 9 games. His total goes from 22 to 18. Say kk and Byron both miss a handful of games it’s easy for them to fall under 20. Now look we only have 4 guys with 20+ goals.
Again these projections are based on 82 games with no injuries. It’s impossible for a team to go through a season and not have to deal with man games lost. Am I that far off really? Go Habs!

Oct. 21, 2020 at 8:27 p.m.

#21

Xqb15a

Joined: Aug. 2020

Posts: 11,474

Likes: 9,109

Quoting: Bigshame

Just saying you are really optimistic in the projections especially for the 3rd line, but hey I’m optimistic the Avs have 7 20 goal scorers too. Good luck!

Oct. 22, 2020 at 3:44 p.m.

#22

BorisBagel

Boris Bagel

Joined: Oct. 2016

Posts: 2,865

Likes: 614

Quoting: Bigshame

Uhh guaranteed Detroit who would be the first team in the waiver wire

Wings may pick a d-man off waivers, but I'm sure there will be better, NHL ready, players available.

Oct. 22, 2020 at 4:17 p.m.

#23

Bigshame

Thread Starter

BergDaMan

Joined: Jul. 2020

Posts: 800

Likes: 232

Quoting: BorisBagel

Wings may pick a d-man off waivers, but I'm sure there will be better, NHL ready, players available.

Sure! Juulsen will not make it unclaimed thru waivers if mtl tries he’s gone. Regardless of where that’s the point. Juulsen can’t be sent down

Oct. 25, 2020 at 12:25 p.m.

#24

BorisBagel

Boris Bagel

Joined: Oct. 2016

Posts: 2,865

Likes: 614

Quoting: Bigshame

Sure! Juulsen will not make it unclaimed thru waivers if mtl tries he’s gone. Regardless of where that’s the point. Juulsen can’t be sent down

No one is touching Juulsen

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