1 problem

Cirelli has to agree to accept an offer sheet, and chances are he isnt going to do it on some penny on the dollars type offer.

If you want him, you are going to have to give him 6m to make it tempting to him, so you will be at the giving up multiple 1st rounders for him....and as a team like Ottawa that would be dangerous to do giving Tampa lottery picks

Killorn has a M-NTC, Johnson, Palat and Gourse have full NTC....you wont be able to bully Tampa into anything

What logical reason would Cirelli have for signing an under valued deal with a team in a place that has an additional 13%provincial tax rate compared to Florida zero state tax?

My guess is Cirelli and JBB already have a deal worked out. It won't be announced until Tampa can get cap compliant.

Both valid points but I was more curious about the concept, not the specific dollar value. And it doesn't have to necessarily be Ottawa, just a team with the desire/cap to make the deal

To get him to agree to an offer sheet its goign to be a massive massive overpayment so the idea of Tampa having to trade a guy like Killorn etc, doesnt matter bc to get Cirelli to even consider an offer sheet its goign to be all higher AAVs thats Killorn, Gourde, Johnson and Palat so they will still wont be cap compliant matching his OS number and then have to move multiple guys off the roster to accommodate to be cap compliant

You cant bully them into a trade with an OS, it just won't happen

whose got the cap space chance to win climate and tax benefits of Tampa?

Again, it's more of a hypothetical scenario. I don't actually believe it will happen, but was just wondering if it could. If Cirelli accepted an offer sheet (assuming it is over $2 million, which of course, it would be), Tampa would have exactly 7 days to make some move.

The Miami Heat?

I’ll beat you anything you want the Miami Heat don’t win one hockey game

hypothetical or not, you have to put some logic into what his offer sheet AAV would be for him to sign one and it will all be higher AAV from the 4 trade candidate fwds.
the math just doesnt add up

To get Cirellito sign away from Tampa is going to take 6.5+ which would be 3 1st rounders

If I offer Cirelli $6 million, they can still trade Killorn for example to free up $4.45 million, making them compliant under the max overage of $89.65 million (net gain of $1.55 million, keeping them just under). Despite Cirelli having a higher AAV, moving Killorn still fixes the problem. They would obviously still be a long way from $81.5 million, but it buys them more time.

In addition to other comments here, I'd like to add...

Killorn can be had for cheap without the offer sheet push.

As for the offer sheet, now that Nikita Kucherov is likely headed to LTIR if needed, that's $9.5MM in overage cap pools. That's the main function for LTIR players now, as a safeguard for holdouts and offer sheets.

all good points. you are quite the sensible guy

It solves their cap situation to start the season, but since LTIR cap does not accrue over the season, if he becomes healthy before the playoffs (which is more than likely) they will have to do a massive scramble in season to find someone to trade for some major cap hits. OR at least from my understand that is would the impact of the LTIR would be for Tampa, not 100% sure

I think its smart they still do their ground work before the season starts and move at least one guy like you said Killorn for cheaper and just take their lumps on not getting full value back for him and move on

Dude Cirelli isn't signing no offer sheet from Ottawa, And Killorn sure as hell isn't waiving to go to Ottawa. So neither is happening.

https://www.capfriendly.com/ltir-faq

To start, just so everyone understands what we're talking about, LTIR is tricky. I'm not an expert on this, but basically, Kucherov's cap hit never goes away, it still counts toward the TBL total cap, it's just offset by the LTIR pools, the base salary pool and the performance bonus pool. There's no performance bonus money in his contract, so there's only the base salary pool in this instance. When Kucherov is placed on LTIR, a base salary pool of $9.5MM cap is created. Any cap that goes over the upper limit of $81.5MM lowers the pool amount. So if Kucherov's cap hit is $9.5MM, and then the pool is $9.5MM, then the pool basically pays for Kucherov's cap hit, kinda sorta but not exactly, because it can pay for any players cap hit, not just Kucherov's.

Now if Kucherov becomes healthy and is reactivated before the end of the season, it gets really interesting. The team needs to adjust their cap hit if they used any of the pool for anyone other than Kucherov. Sometimes teams send players to the AHL on conditioning stints just to get a few extra days to fix their cap. This is why teams hire people just to manage their cap numbers. The GM has to run their trades by the Cap Team, it isn't like Brad Pitt in Moneyball. If the GM's don't consult their Cap Team, then they run the risk of messing up their cap situation. Teams closest to the cap ceiling are more likely to use their Cap Teams before they make trades. Okay, I'm off point here.

Short answer, yes, the TBL could be back in cap hell if Kucherov is activated before the end of the season.

The playoffs don't matter, as there's no salary, and therefore no cap, in the playoffs. I can see you guys thinking hard on that one. There's rules to prevent what you're thinking, lol.