Leafs say nah; Panarin would be nice, but that's not a luxury we can afford: We need to use our draft pick/JVR to find an elite right handed defenseman

Interesting idea...if the Leafs are in control of the third pick (which they shouldn't be in position for), I could see them trying to trade up to #2 and draft Timothy Liljegren. They have plenty of forwards in their farm system, so I doubt a forward would be what they're looking for. And given how much money Panarin would demand, the Leafs might be better off saving the money for when Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Kapanen all need to get big bucks.

How would you two feel if the trade was instead to Arizona:

RFA rights to Kempny + Panarin + Our 1st for Domi + 3OA. Or something like that?

If the Hawks cannot fit Panarin under the cap, there are few teams that can sign him for 6+, without sending money back to the Hawks. Boston might, Leafs might. But teams aren't going to "wreck" their teams and cap to sign one guy.
Would teams like Arizona or the Leafs trade a top five pick and all the financial benefits of a player on ELC for Panarin? Don't know. Would the Leafs and Bruins send just near NHL prospect and would the Hawks be happy with that return, which is not immediate in the results? Don't know
In the near past, the Hawks allowed UFAs to walk (like all teams) cause they can't afford to sign them. Panarin has a "R" in instead of a "U" in front of FA. Doesn't mean teams will pony up and give 100% value to the Hawks, and maybe the Hawks shouldn't be expecting it either, though it just takes one team to make an offer the Hawks can live with.

Realistically a trade would probably have to be a $3-4.5 mil AAV veteran forward with at least a few year left on contract and a top 5 OA for Panarin. No team can or will give up basically two ELC for on large contract. The Leafs trade seems OK but they would have JVR off their books after one season if they kept him and the Hawks only get one year if they take him (minimal overall value). If JVR had 3 years left it makes a bit more sense for both teams as the Leafs get an upgrade for only 2 mil per season and the Hawks get more cap space for a downgrade at that position but the potential for a good young player.

Is it now most likely that Panarin's overages come to $2.75? Why do some people say $1.5?

Because the current stats have him missing the schedule B bonuses. Long season...anything can happen.

Vancouver could be a nice fit if the hawks needed to trade artemi.

I agree with they need Llijegren and I don't Think that they aren't signed anyone to huge contracts without signing Matthews,Marner,Nylander and kapanen. They all would want big money so might as well just wait to sign them