Here are the most frequently signed UFAs as posted on ACGMs.
The listed term and salary are averages from across all ACGMs.
1. Blake Coleman: 3 years x $3,525,709
2. Jamie Oleksiak: 3 years x $3,184,947
3. Dougie Hamilton: 6 years x $8,402,954
4. Chris Driedger: 3 years x $3,107946
5. Phillip Danault: 4 years x $5,121,951
6. Zach Hyman: 5 years x $4,900,610
7. Alec Martinez: 3 years x $5,608,750
8. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 5 years x $6,191,026
9. Jonathan Bernier: 2 years x $3,125,641
10. Adam Larsson: 4 years x $4,016,216
11. Linus Ullmark: 3 years x $3,918,056
12. Ryan Getzlaf: 1 year x $2,737,143
13. Gabriel Landeskog: 6 years x $7,600,714
14. Ian Cole: 2 years x $2,209,242
15. Jani Hakanpää: 2 years x $1,428,333
16. Alexander Wennberg: 3 years x $3,437,097
17. Barclay Goodrow: 3 years x $2,165,517
18. Travis Hamonic: 2 years x $2,059,821
19. Taylor Hall: 4 years x $6,637,500
20. Philipp Grubauer: 5 years x $5,730,952
A couple of interesting tidbits:
1. The highest average salary is Alex Ovechkin (3 years x $10.2m), but he is not among the most frequently signed.
2. Dougie Hamilton average contract with Carolina: 6 years x $8.04m. Hamilton’s average contract with all other teams: 6 years x $8.54m. So he is getting about $500k more away from Hurricanes.
3. Landeskog is getting over $800k more from non-Colorado teams.
4. Blake Coleman is being signed in nearly 12% of ACGMs. His average ACGM salary is $3.5 million while his projected salary from EW is $4.8 million.
5. Oleksiak is being signed in about 8% of ACGMs. His average salary is $3.2 million, EW projection is $4.1m.
6. Danualt and Hyman all appear in about 6% of ACGMs. Both are being signed for about 75 cents on dollar.
7. Two guys that are being signed well above their EW projections are Ryan Getzlaf and Ian Cole.
8. David Savard is being signed to 2x his projected salary. Jake McCabe, 3x.
9. The most common “cheap vets” (guys under $1 million) are Jason Spezza and Matt Nieto. Brett Ritchie and Luke Schenn are getting attention too.
Just for comparison-sake, here are the contract projections from Evolving Wild for the top skaters listed above.
1. Blake Coleman: 4 years x $4,759,000
2. Jamie Oleksiak: 5 years x $4,089,000
3. Dougie Hamilton: 7 years x $8,479,000
5. Phillip Danault: 7 years x $6,363,000
6. Zach Hyman: 7 years x $6,850,000
7. Alec Martinez: 4 years x $5,655,000
8. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 7 years x $8,215,000
10. Adam Larsson: 5 years x $4,069,000
12. Ryan Getzlaf: 1 year x $2,078,000
13. Gabriel Landeskog: 7 years x $8,784,000
14. Ian Cole: 1 year x $1,140,000
15. Jani Hakanpää: 1 year x $1,292,000
16. Alexander Wennberg: 4 years x $4,248,000
17. Barclay Goodrow: 4 years x $3,063,000
18. Travis Hamonic: 1 year x $1,726,000
19. Taylor Hall: 7 years x $7,187,000
I’m not sure if you covered this earlier and I missed it, but did you pull this manually or have a bot do it, or is the data stored in a place where the general public can’t see or something? Regardless, very interesting data! You can tell guys like Oleksiak keep getting underpaid by people tryna sign him to a 2x2 lol
I could share the data publicly if CF agreed to it.
I don't know what their rules are on such things.
I don't recall the gapgeek feature
But seems like pretty easy thing to produce.
Good idea.
There are infinite numbers of data-points that could be interesting.
They do have 'most commonly bought out contracts'
I imagine it would be easy addition to add:
a. Most commonly signed UFAs
b. Most commonly traded players
c. Average term and salary
And so forth.
One could worry about people trying to manipulate it though.
My recommendation would be to create prediction market among, say, top-1000 users.
Those that are most wrong fall out
Indeed. I wonder also if it'd be possible to define which teams mostly sign a player, like a "most common destination" function. Probably would have to be based on the average of the amount signed to a team and the amount of posts of the said team.
Also wonder how one defines top-1000 users though? Most posts, longest time active, most likes (lol this would be fun) etc.
I’m not sure if you covered this earlier and I missed it, but did you pull this manually or have a bot do it, or is the data stored in a place where the general public can’t see or something? Regardless, very interesting data! You can tell guys like Oleksiak keep getting underpaid by people tryna sign him to a 2x2 lol
Dallas fan here. Imo $3M is absolute max you'd pay for a guy like him. Think you'd regret paying him more, his numbers are inflated by the fact he plays the most with Heiskanen.
Indeed. I wonder also if it'd be possible to define which teams mostly sign a player, like a "most common destination" function. Probably would have to be based on the average of the amount signed to a team and the amount of posts of the said team.
Also wonder how one defines top-1000 users though? Most posts, longest time active, most likes (lol this would be fun) etc.
Doesn't have to be 1000. Can be 20. Or 10000.
As long as users have some sort of stake in it, it can provide meaningful datasets.
Dallas fan here. Imo $3M is absolute max you'd pay for a guy like him. Think you'd regret paying him more, his numbers are inflated by the fact he plays the most with Heiskanen.
I think this is a fair take. His value is definitely boosted by having better numbers thanks to Heiskanen, but also there’s a distinct lack of top 4 talent available this off-season. Hamilton’s obviously the big fish, but in terms of mid-range guys that can play 2nd pair minutss it’s pretty much just Oleksiak, Martinez, and Barrie (assuming Larsson re-signs with the Oilers). I wouldn’t be surprised to see him valued at 4-5 years at 4mil if this was a normal year, but we’ll have to see if he gets squeezed by the flat cap or if there are enough offers to keep him in that range. Giving him a few years at 3mil would be ideal in that it’s a fair contract, which is automatically a win for the team as generally UFAs get overpaid as a result of a bidding war.
On the topic of the thread in general, this is an interesting comparison for another reason, as you can see what fans value the players at vs. what EW values the players at (which I believe is based on performance and recent comparables right?). I think generally I’d lean more towards the EW projections but it would tend to be somewhere in the middle. I do think some of the EW projections are a little high though. Like I think that Hyman projection is absurd, and Nuge, Wennberg (how do you turn around and give him his bought out contract a year later lol), and Goodrow also seem a little high, I think the capfriendly numbers are actually a bit more realistic for them.
I think this is a fair take. His value is definitely boosted by having better numbers thanks to Heiskanen, but also there’s a distinct lack of top 4 talent available this off-season. Hamilton’s obviously the big fish, but in terms of mid-range guys that can play 2nd pair minutss it’s pretty much just Oleksiak, Martinez, and Barrie (assuming Larsson re-signs with the Oilers). I wouldn’t be surprised to see him valued at 4-5 years at 4mil if this was a normal year, but we’ll have to see if he gets squeezed by the flat cap or if there are enough offers to keep him in that range. Giving him a few years at 3mil would be ideal in that it’s a fair contract, which is automatically a win for the team as generally UFAs get overpaid as a result of a bidding war.
On the topic of the thread in general, this is an interesting comparison for another reason, as you can see what fans value the players at vs. what EW values the players at (which I believe is based on performance and recent comparables right?). I think generally I’d lean more towards the EW projections but it would tend to be somewhere in the middle. I do think some of the EW projections are a little high though. Like I think that Hyman projection is absurd, and Nuge, Wennberg (how do you turn around and give him his bought out contract a year later lol), and Goodrow also seem a little high, I think the capfriendly numbers are actually a bit more realistic for them.
Feels like their algorithm is not able to take all things into account same way fans can. But by the same token, maybe the algorithm knows something we don't.
Feels like their algorithm is not able to take all things into account same way fans can. But by the same token, maybe the algorithm knows something we don't.
Maybe just average the two together.
EW projections, corrected by crowds
Dallas fan here. Imo $3M is absolute max you'd pay for a guy like him. Think you'd regret paying him more, his numbers are inflated by the fact he plays the most with Heiskanen.
I’d like a guy like Montour with Heiskanen instead of Oleksiak.
EW: Jamie Oleksiak: 5 years x $4,089,000
- signed in Seattle for 5 years x $4,600,000
- CF community had him at 3 years x $3,184,947
Conclusion: EW was closer here, both underestimated the new contract
EW: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 7 years x $8,215,000
- signed in Edmonton for 8 years x $5,125,000
- CF community had him at 5 years x $6,191,026
Conclusion: CF was closer, both overestimated
EW: Adam Larsson: 5 years x $4,069,000
- signed with Seattle for 4 years x $4,000,000
- CF community had him at 4 years x $4,016,216
Conclusion: CF nailed it, EW was close enough
EW: Barclay Goodrow: 4 years x $3,063,000
- signed in New York for 6 years x $3,641,667
- CF community had him at 3 years x $2,165,517
Conclusion: NYR wildly overpaid the man, EW was closer
Final numbers still pending but according to reports:
EW: Zach Hyman: 7 years x $6,850,000
- reportedly nearing a 7 or 8 year deal worth about $5M per, probably RNH's 8 x $5.125M
- CF community had him at 5 years x $4,900,610
Conclusion: it looks like CF will MUCH closer to the correct AAV, EW closer to the correct term
EW: Taylor Hall: 7 years x $7,187,000
- reportedly nearing a 4 year deal worth about $6M per
- CF community had him at 4 years x $6,637,500
Conclusion: it looks like CF will be MUCH closer to the correct AAV and term
EW: Jamie Oleksiak: 5 years x $4,089,000
- signed in Seattle for 5 years x $4,600,000
- CF community had him at 3 years x $3,184,947
Conclusion: EW was closer here, both underestimated the new contract
EW: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 7 years x $8,215,000
- signed in Edmonton for 8 years x $5,125,000
- CF community had him at 5 years x $6,191,026
Conclusion: CF was closer, both overestimated
EW: Adam Larsson: 5 years x $4,069,000
- signed with Seattle for 4 years x $4,000,000
- CF community had him at 4 years x $4,016,216
Conclusion: CF nailed it, EW was close enough
EW: Barclay Goodrow: 4 years x $3,063,000
- signed in New York for 6 years x $3,641,667
- CF community had him at 3 years x $2,165,517
Conclusion: NYR wildly overpaid the man, EW was closer
Final numbers still pending but according to reports:
EW: Zach Hyman: 7 years x $6,850,000
- reportedly nearing a 7 or 8 year deal worth about $5M per, probably RNH's 8 x $5.125M
- CF community had him at 5 years x $4,900,610
Conclusion: it looks like CF will MUCH closer to the correct AAV, EW closer to the correct term
EW: Taylor Hall: 7 years x $7,187,000
- reportedly nearing a 4 year deal worth about $6M per
- CF community had him at 4 years x $6,637,500
Conclusion: it looks like CF will be MUCH closer to the correct AAV and term
Very cool. Am guessing, CF community will turnout to be more accurate predictor.
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