Quoting: Artman91
Hughes is not gonna sign a 6.8M contract. Look at Heiskanin, Jones, Nurse, Hamilton and Werenski. Why would he take much less than them?
Quoting: PleaseBanMeForMyOwnGood
Makar got 9, Hughes gets close over the same term. Otherwise it's 7+ over 2-3 years and then 10+ long term. Petterson is supposed to be a top 5 centre according to you guys. If he is, 8 years is over 11. 6 is definitely 9+
Quoting: Artman91
There are many teams who would offer sheet if that’s the case. It does not matter whether it’s UFA or RFA. Vancouver is in a tough situation. If Hughes does not get what he wants, he’ll request a trade. Then what is Vancouver gonna do? They have no choice. Hughes will get 8.5M+. Unless it’s a 3 year deal I can see him taking 7.5M at the least. There’s two things to look at, him requesting trade if proper deal not found. Or he’ll sign a 3 year deal, become UFA and go to Devils to play with his brothers which he would definitely prefer.
You really can’t use any of nurse, Jones, Hamilton, or werenski as comparables. Even Hughes’ agent said so himself in an interview with the province a couple of days ago: https://www.google.com/amp/s/theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/canucks-elias-pettersson-quinn-hughes-deals-take-time-agent/wcm/5a8f79f7-b325-4952-bc01-4ec46b23ca77/amp/
The main comparables are makar, heiskenain, chabot, and macavoy. Since I’m proposing a 6 year deal, let’s start with Makar who is the only comparable who signed for 6.
Hughes and Makar were pretty close in their rookie seasons. Hughes had higher totals, but Makar had a better ppg and ultimately won the Calder. Some will point out Makar had better analytics as well.
Beyond that though, this past season we saw Makar was the most productive D-man in the NHL, came 2nd in Norris votes (Hughes received 0 votes on any Norris ballot) and was the #1 defenseman on one of the best D-cores in the league.
For Hughes, while he was still very productive offensively, he took a noticeable step back defensively, both from the eye test and analytically. Vancouver was the most permissive team defensively last year and this was still true when Hughes was on the ice. He did show once again he is a number 1 pp quarter back and his skating, puck handling, and iq are all elite, but he is not on the same level as Makar at this point. His AAV on a 6 year deal should reflect this gap in overall pay.
Now let’s look at heiskanen. Hughes is obviously more effective offensively (although interestingly they had very similar points per game numbers in the 2020 playoffs). That being said, heiskenen has a more refined all-round NHL game. I think you could argue either way about which is the more valuable piece, meaning their contracts should be similar. But their is an important distinction from a negotiation standpoint. Heiskanen’s contract buys 4 UFA years, where as the one I’ve proposed for Hughes in the OP only buys one UFA year. By having this contract expire so much earlier into Hughe’s UFA window, it will greatly lower the AAV of the contract.
Looking at Chabot, the situation is very similar to heiskanen. Hughes plays a smaller role on the Canucks than a habit did for the Sens before locking into his deal, but I think one could argue hughes is the better player. The structure of Chabots deal is very similar to heiskanens, so the logic that fewer UFA years = lower AAV still applies
Finally we’ll look at MacAvoy. Much more if an all round Defensemen compared to hughes. It took him longer to hit high production levels, but his defensive play has always been stellar. MacAvoy took a 3 year deal at only 4.9 millionwhich buys 0 UFA years, expires as an RFA, but gives him a big qualifying offer (7.3 million). Hughes’s production levels will certainly help him in his negotiations, so it’s reasonable to assume he would get a higher AAV anyways, and buying 3 additional years we would expect a significant increase over 4.9.
Based on all these comparables. And AAV somewhere between MacAvoy and Makar on a 6 year deal seems reasonable. If the Canucks went for 8 years, we would likely see the AAV come in near heiskanen or Chabot, but by avoiding buying those extra UFA years, it should save some dollars off the cap hit.
There for, I think a cap hit of around 7 million in a 6 year deal is perfectly reasonable, right in line with his peers, and accounts for both his strengths and weaknesses as a hockey player. I shaved off a couple hundred grand given Hugh’s status as a 10.2C RFA, who has less leverage than a typical RFA. It should allow the Canucks to grind him down a little bit further for minor cap savings, similar to MacAvoy or Boeser or Gaudreau, etc.
For Pettersson, I looked at Barzal, point, and draisaitl as comps. I also looked at rantanen and Marner although their offensive numbers in the final year before they signed are much higher than any season Pettersson has ever had, so they aren’t very good comparables. Barzal has the most similar career to Pettersson so far, with a Calder win, near point per game play, number one C, high playoff scoring, high skill, etc. I think it’s very reasonable to assume Pettersson comes in at almost the exact same number as Barzal on a 3 year.
Point is intersting. He exploded in his platform year, but Tampa bays ability to get players to take a discount makes it hard to read his actually contract worth. I would say Pettersson signing a similar deal in Van, given tax situation etc., would bring petey in at just above 7 on a 3 year deal. This is inline with Barzal, so we can be pretty confident that the AAV for three years would be around 7.
For draisaitl, I looked specifically at his 2016/2017 season and compared it to 2019/2020 for Pettersson. This is both players best seasons on their ELC’s and both players we 20 years old at the start of their respective seasons (draisaitl turned 21 in October of his season, Pettersson turned 21 in November of his). They had very similar stat lines that year, similar regular season points per game, similar playoff points per game. Pettersson had a higher goals per game in the regular season. Draisaitl signed his deal when the cap was only 75 million, so an equivalent deal today would come in at 9.2 million over 8 years, buying 4 UFA years.
So from those comparables, we can project 7 million over 3, or 9.2 over 8. over 6 years, we would see Pettersson fall somewhere in between. However, since a 6 year deal buys 2 UFA years, and those are more expensive, we should expect the AAV to be closer to 9.2 than it is to 7. I picked 8.5 kind of arbitrarily but I think it makes sense from this perspective.
I also considered using Aho as a comprable, but that doesn’t really make sense with a offer sheet. I also tried to compare Pettersson to hischier and Keller, but it’s obvious petey is a tier or two above those guys.
So yeah. TLDR going over 9 million for either player on a 6 year deal is an overpay. Hughes probably shouldn’t even be above 7, based on comparables.
Quoting: Jah1722
Not as much as you think. Nurse and Jones were UFAs at contract’s end. Hughes is an RFA that can’t even get offer sheeted. That’s a major difference when it comes to negotiating his contract. Makar’s contract is the biggest influence and I don’t see Hughes getting to his number. I think $8M max for him on a similar length deal.
^this guy gets it
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