Quoting: BeterChiarelli
Elaborate, if you would.
I don't think we can even consider Russell in this context, he's there in place of retention.
Samorukov is an NHL-ready blueline piece. Benson is an NHL-ready third line LW. The only reason Benson may not be on the NHL roster to start next year is that there are three LW's already ahead of him on the depth chart and Holland didn't draft him (thus doesn't have the commitment or loyalty to the prospect).
The kicker here is that Edmonton might be offering the highest pick in exchange for Ekholm. Most people and their dogs are predicting the Oilers to barely squeak into the playoffs. That means they could be offering a pick below #20. Who else has need, not a want, for a defender of Ekholm's calibre or can offer such a pick? I seriously doubt they trade him within the division. Off the top of my head maybe the Islanders make a serious offer, but the expectation again is that they're finishing near the top of their division. If the prospects offered are going to be about equivalent to Benson/Samorukov, it'll boil down to the Oilers having the better pick.
Assuming NSH does decide to trade Ekholm, this proposal has some merit for the Preds - but I still don't love it for them.
I do believe a 2022 1st from the Oilers has the best chance to be a high one, compared to one from teams like BOS, TOR, WPG, NYI, etc that would be interested in adding Ekholm. If they were in any other division, I'd consider EDM to be a lottery team, not a bubble team. I think the team you've built here looks quite strong, but just looking at their current roster doesn't give me confidence (even with the addition of Ekholm). However, the Pacific being the crapshoot it's shaping up to be, EDM has a decent enough chance to get a favourable playoff birth. NSH can't bank on that pick being a guaranteed home run.
The prospects aren't bad, but NSH already has a handful of ready for the NHL guys on LD, and for the bottom six. Benson and Samorukov are fine, but they're not bringing anything to NSH's prospect pool that they're lacking. I could see them getting lost/underutilized in a numbers game. I don't know that I value either of them much more than the 4th NSH is giving up here. If this trade were to go through, I think NSH would be pinning all of their hopes on the draft pick, when it comes to the return. Any contributions from Benson or Samorukov at the NHL level would be considered a pleasant surprise.
As cap dumps go, Russell's salary and term are quite reasonable. Another vet defenceman would be in the way, from a roster perspective though. It would actually be preferable for NSH to retain the equivalent salary on Ekholm, instead of taking Russell on.
So I think NSH only takes this return if they believe strongly that EDM will be bad enough to miss the playoffs. Otherwise, I think they could get a 1st plus secondary assets they'd have more interest in, from another team.
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