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The asking price on Hertl using the 3 teams that I think are on his trade list

Created by: sensonfire
Team: 2021-22 San Jose Sharks
Initial Creation Date: Sep. 13, 2021
Published: Sep. 13, 2021
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Based on a previous post of mine:


https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/2782868
Free Agent Signings
RFAYEARSCAP HIT
1$750,000
Trades
1.
SJS
  1. Beecher, John [Reserve List]
  2. 2022 1st round pick (BOS)
BOS
  1. Hertl, Tomas ($2,812,500 retained)
2.
SJS
  1. Foote, Cal
  2. 2022 1st round pick (TBL)
TBL
    Tomas Hertl with retention
    3.
    SJS
    1. Brisson, Brendan [Reserve List]
    2. 2022 1st round pick (VGK)
    VGK
      Tomas Hertl with retention
      Buyouts
      Retained Salary Transactions
      DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
      2022
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the BOS
      Logo of the TBL
      Logo of the VGK
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the BUF
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the ARI
      Logo of the MIN
      2023
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the SJS
      2024
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the SJS
      Logo of the SJS
      ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
      22$81,500,000$62,539,530$0$425,000$18,960,470
      Left WingCentreRight Wing
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $2,108,696$2,108,696
      LW, RW
      NMC
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $8,000,000$8,000,000
      C
      M-NTC
      UFA - 6
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $4,725,000$4,725,000
      RW, LW
      UFA - 3
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $3,000,000$3,000,000
      LW, RW
      UFA - 2
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $1,025,000$1,025,000
      C, LW
      M-NTC
      UFA - 2
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $1,550,000$1,550,000
      LW, RW
      UFA - 2
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $500,000$500,000
      LW
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $1,100,000$1,100,000
      C
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $1,000,000$1,000,000
      RW, LW
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$212,500$212K)
      LW, RW
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $750,000$750,000
      RW, C
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $850,000$850,000
      LW, RW
      UFA - 2
      Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $925,000$925,000 (Performance Bonus$212,500$212K)
      LD
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $5,280,000$5,280,000
      RD
      M-NTC
      UFA - 4
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $2,250,000$2,250,000
      G
      M-NTC
      UFA - 2
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $796,667$796,667
      LD/RD
      UFA - 1
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $10,000,000$10,000,000
      RD
      NMC
      UFA - 6
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $2,175,000$2,175,000
      G
      UFA - 2
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $7,000,000$7,000,000
      LD/RD
      NMC
      UFA - 5
      Logo of the Tampa Bay Lightning
      $850,000$850,000
      RD
      RFA - 2
      ScratchesInjured Reserve (IR)Long Term IR (LTIR)
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $2,250,000$2,250,000
      LD/RD
      UFA - 3
      Logo of the San Jose Sharks
      $750,000$750,000
      LW, RW
      RFA - 1

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      Sep. 13, 2021 at 2:33 p.m.
      #26
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      sensonfire
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      Quoting: exo2769
      Beecher is a meh prospect. His ceiling is a #3C.


      Beecher was a 1st round pick recently.


      I'm just using the parameters set by Kevin Kurz.


      I don't know of any top prospects on the Bruins that either play centre or that could replace Merkley or Burns as a defenceman.


      Do you?
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 2:35 p.m.
      #27
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      sensonfire
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      Quoting: CMcAvoy73
      With retention the boston deal might be close. I still think it’s a bit much for hertl.

      The vegas deal is bonkers.


      Any Hertl trade with Vegas is bonkers.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 2:38 p.m.
      #28
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      sensonfire
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      Quoting: CrossFireX33
      I think all three teams would either need salary coming back or retention


      I would assume that as well.


      Although Kevin Kurz never said anything about retention or bringing back salary in his latest piece.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 2:52 p.m.
      #29
      Mac1010
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      Quoting: CMcAvoy73
      Notice i didn’t say he projects as a 1C or 2C. Ceiling vs projection are two very different things.


      not that different. If you think their ceiling is a certain level you should hopefully project him to be there. Thats what teams draft for anyways.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 2:54 p.m.
      #30
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      sensonfire
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      Quoting: Klara
      Downgrade Krebs to Brisson, and definitely need to add to that Boston deal, Beecher isn't close to the other two.


      Kevin Kurz said that San Jose's price for Hertl is twofold...



      1. A 1st round pick


      2a. A top prospect that can play centre

      Or

      2b. A top prospect that could replace Merkley or Burns.



      Do you know of anybody on the Bruins besides Beecher that might fit either of those two descriptions?
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 2:54 p.m.
      #31
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      Moot. Reported recently by Friedman that sharks intend to build around Hertl. A trade is extremely unlikely sorry to say
      sensonfire liked this.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 2:59 p.m.
      #32
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      Quoting: lilfimpen
      Moot. Reported recently by Friedman that sharks intend to build around Hertl. A trade is extremely unlikely sorry to say


      I'm guessing that means Hertl will sign an extension with the Sharks, right?
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 3:00 p.m.
      #33
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      Quoting: sensonfire
      Kevin Kurz said that San Jose's price for Hertl is twofold...



      1. A 1st round pick


      2a. A top prospect that can play centre

      Or

      2b. A top prospect that could replace Merkley or Burns.



      Do you know of anybody on the Bruins besides Beecher that might fit either of those two descriptions?


      no one, which is precisely why I don't see Hertl going to Boston unless Don Sweeney goes all in and trades 2 1sts, they don't have the assets to acquire any big names through trades.
      sensonfire and exo2769 liked this.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 3:01 p.m.
      #34
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      Edited Sep. 13, 2021 at 3:11 p.m.
      Quoting: sensonfire
      I'm guessing that means Hertl will sign an extension with the Sharks, right?


      There’s been a lot of talk about San Jose’s Tomas Hertl, headed into his final season before unrestricted free agency. That intensified when the centre told Czech-based iDNES.cz, “I wonder if San Jose will want to re-sign me, and if I’ll want to stay there. … I’ll start the season and see how it turns out.” I’d love to see the incoming-call log on Sharks GM Doug Wilson’s phone, but word is he’s told other teams that it is San Jose’s desire to make this work, and that message will be delivered once Hertl arrives.

      Around the TDL last year Wilson also said Hertl is a culture driver that the team wants to build around. I'd says it's very likely he stays with the Sharks
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 3:07 p.m.
      #35
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      Quoting: mm1010
      not that different. If you think their ceiling is a certain level you should hopefully project him to be there. Thats what teams draft for anyways.


      It’s incredibly different. Let’s go back to the lottery analogy. Buy a 20 dollar scratcher, and the projected return is probably $15 or something like. That ceiling is likely millions.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 3:12 p.m.
      #36
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      sensonfire
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      Quoting: lilfimpen
      There’s been a lot of talk about San Jose’s Tomas Hertl, headed into his final season before unrestricted free agency. That intensified when the centre told Czech-based iDNES.cz, “I wonder if San Jose will want to re-sign me, and if I’ll want to stay there. … I’ll start the season and see how it turns out.” I’d love to see the incoming-call log on Sharks GM Doug Wilson’s phone, but word is he’s told other teams that it is San Jose’s desire to make this work, and that message will be delivered once Hertl arrives.

      Around the TDL last year Wilson also said Hertl is a culture driver that the team wants to build around. I'd says it's very likely he stays with the Sharks


      We'll see what happens then.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 3:14 p.m.
      #37
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      Quoting: sensonfire
      We'll see what happens then.


      We will!
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 3:23 p.m.
      #38
      exo2769
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      Edited Sep. 13, 2021 at 3:32 p.m.
      Quoting: sensonfire
      Beecher was a 1st round pick recently.
      I'm just using the parameters set by Kevin Kurz.
      I don't know of any top prospects on the Bruins that either play centre or that could replace Merkley or Burns as a defenceman.
      Do you?


      There's a bunch that goes into this. To directly answer your question...I think BOS center depth within their system is pretty weak overall. They win a ton in the NHL so I don't feel like that's a slight. But somehow someone will take it that way. It's why they're near the bottom in farm system rankings. Studnicka is their best Center prospect imo and then Beecher. Beecher really isn't bad prospect at all. I stand by my ceiling of a #3C and that's not nothing. The #3C role is very important. It's just not what you're looking for in a return for Hertl. Beecher IMO does a lot of the intangibles. Big Guy that has good awareness and puts himself in good positions. He can't score, but #3Cs aren't scorers. He's never been a PPG player at any level of competition...basically ever. If Elite Prospects doesn't cover the league, it's probably not worth covering.

      https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/373899/john-beecher

      Let's compare Beecher to Brisson. Ironically, Both within this post being traded. Ironically, Both play for Michigan. MOST ironically, Brisson is likely the exact specific kid that replaces Beecher as Michigan's #2 Center. ​Matty Beniers the #1 Center. THAT'S how deep Michigan is as a team, but that's a different point entirely. Brisson and Bordelaeu were great together and I think they'll win out the #2 line. (Also, Bordelaeu is a SJS prospect...) So that leaves Beecher as the #3C for his college team with two younger centers in front of him. If your SJS...you want as many players with that high ceiling as possible.

      If SJS need to target BOS...then defense is where I'd go, but I honestly don't know much about Mason Lohrei to say whether he's worth it or not. I just like to watch Big Ten Hockey so I see UM play alot.
      sensonfire liked this.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 3:35 p.m.
      #39
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      sensonfire
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      Quoting: exo2769
      There's a bunch that goes into this. To directly answer your question...I think BOS center depth within their system is pretty weak overall. They win a ton in the NHL so I don't feel like that's a slight. But somehow someone will take it that way. It's why they're near the bottom in farm system rankings. Studnicka is their best Center prospect imo and then Beecher. Beecher really isn't bad prospect at all. I stand by my ceiling of a #3C and that's not nothing. The #3C role is very important. It's just not what you're looking for in a return for Hertl. Beecher IMO does a lot of the intangibles. Big Guy that has good awareness and puts himself in good positions. He can't score, but #3Cs aren't scorers. He's never been a PPG player at any level of competition...basically ever. If Elite Prospects doesn't cover the league, it's probably not worth covering.

      https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/373899/john-beecher

      Let's compare Beecher to Brisson. Ironically, Both within this post being traded. Ironically, Both play for Michigan. MOST ironically, Brisson is likely the exact specific kid that replaces Beecher as Michigan's #2 Center. ​Matty Beniers the #1 Center. THAT'S how deep Michigan is as a team, but that's a different point entirely. Brisson and Bordelaeu were great together and I think they'll win out the #2 line. (Also, Bordelaeu is a SJS prospect...) So that leaves Beecher as the #3C for his college team with two younger centers in front of him. If your SJS...you want as many players with that high ceiling as possible.

      Defense is where I'd go if I were SJS, but I honestly don't know much about Mason Lohrei to say whether he's worth it or not. I just like to watch Big Ten Hockey so I see UM play alot.


      According to this source, Studnicka's position at the NHL level is RW.


      https://www.stanleycupofchowder.com/2021/8/17/22624869/lysell-studnicka-who-cracks-bruins-roster
      exo2769 liked this.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 3:40 p.m.
      #40
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      Quoting: sensonfire
      Kevin Kurz never said anything about retention in his latest piece.


      Although it's safe to assume it will be a requirement for either Boston, Tampa or Vegas.


      No I don’t think he did. I don’t mind the sharks retaining unless they are already taking on money like many acgms that have them taking on nearly $10 mil. Maybe add a 3rd or 4th if there’s retention in any deal? It’s not much
      sensonfire liked this.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 3:47 p.m.
      #41
      exo2769
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      Quoting: sensonfire
      According to this source, Studnicka's position at the NHL level is RW.


      https://www.stanleycupofchowder.com/2021/8/17/22624869/lysell-studnicka-who-cracks-bruins-roster


      I thought he was a center in Providence and Niagra, but maybe I'm just not up to speed on where BOS thinks he'll fit in. Thanks for the articlecheers !
      sensonfire liked this.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 4:05 p.m.
      #42
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      Quoting: sensonfire
      Eichel has a massive contract and a broken neck basically that hasn't been fixed yet.

      Hertl has neither of those issues.


      A broken neck? LOL
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 4:14 p.m.
      #43
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      sensonfire
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      Quoting: Dnik10
      A broken neck? LOL


      He needs neck surgery and he can't seem to agree with the Sabres on which one to get.


      So, his neck is crooked instead of broken.

      It doesn't really disprove my point of differentiating Eichel from Hertl.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 4:24 p.m.
      #44
      Mac1010
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      Quoting: CMcAvoy73
      It’s incredibly different. Let’s go back to the lottery analogy. Buy a 20 dollar scratcher, and the projected return is probably $15 or something like. That ceiling is likely millions.


      yes but you are not drafting scratch cards. you are drafting players that your scouts have watched for years. yes a 7th rounder probably closer to your scenario but a 1st 2nd rounder that they have been developing. if its still a scratch card lottery hopes you need new scouts.

      a player at this point the project and ceiling are probably very similar.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 4:28 p.m.
      #45
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      Quoting: mm1010
      yes but you are not drafting scratch cards. you are drafting players that your scouts have watched for years. yes a 7th rounder probably closer to your scenario but a 1st 2nd rounder that they have been developing. if its still a scratch card lottery hopes you need new scouts.

      a player at this point the project and ceiling are probably very similar.


      All first rounders have high ceilings. It’s why they’re first rounders. The majority of them don’t work out. They’re the perfect illustration of ceiling and projection being wildly different.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 7:07 p.m.
      #46
      Mac1010
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      Quoting: CMcAvoy73
      All first rounders have high ceilings. It’s why they’re first rounders. The majority of them don’t work out. They’re the perfect illustration of ceiling and projection being wildly different.


      you know on average over 50% of 1st rounders make and play meaningful roles in the nhl right....
      If thats the scratch tickets your buying that have a 50% chance of hitting a good win let me know where you are buying.

      Yes they all dont end up on the 1st line or 2nd but many find their roles in the lower lines.... which is exactly my point on saying a guy has a high ceiling in above a 3rd liner..... probably safe to assume he makes the nhl at some point.
      Sep. 13, 2021 at 7:10 p.m.
      #47
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      Quoting: mm1010
      you know on average over 50% of 1st rounders make and play meaningful roles in the nhl right....
      If thats the scratch tickets your buying that have a 50% chance of hitting a good win let me know where you are buying.

      Yes they all dont end up on the 1st line or 2nd but many find their roles in the lower lines.... which is exactly my point on saying a guy has a high ceiling in above a 3rd liner..... probably safe to assume he makes the nhl at some point.


      Every guy drafted in the first round has a high ceiling. In the bottom half of the round, the odds aren’t great of the player being a legit NHLer.
       
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