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Dubas On the Ropes

Created by: warrenbuffetwho
Team: 2021-22 Toronto Maple Leafs
Initial Creation Date: Mar. 13, 2022
Published: Mar. 13, 2022
Salary Cap Mode: Basic
Description
Justification:

- Vegas needs to clear cap room for when everyone is back, Mikyhev is a cheap serviceable option and a UFA at the end of the year and is not likely to return to the leafs. Smith is a local product that has produced consistently over the last few years. He would be a good fit on any of the top 3 lines.

- Arizona will be taking on bad contracts to get picks, this lets them get a solid D that can play for them next year as they will be light on options if they lose Chycrun. Holl has improved since being scratched and this time last year was seen as an important part of the leafs D-core. He is a likable guy who would be a good vet for the kids on Arizona.

- Conor Garland is a good player but Vancouver is far away from contending, new GM would be smart to add a solid prospect and reload on picks, given that Toronto crumbles every year they could be decently high. His underlying stats compare closely with Nylander and his quick fuse adds a level of grit the leafs lack. I have liked him ever since I watched him put up 7 points in one game as moncton wildcat.

- Islanders trade is the most unlikely, as dubas doesn't seem excited about moving either goalie and Lou is also not likely to work with his former team. However, Mrazek on paper is a solid option in the net that could find his groove again with the islanders. Mayfield would provide grit on the back end at a low cost for the leafs and Varlamov's playoff experience could come in valuable. Dermott, the 1st, and 4th attached should make this appealing to the islanders and maybe even an overpayment, but at this point in the teams history, its time to go all in.

Cap wise, this assumes that Muzzin is out until playoffs, this also is dependent on people being willing to make moves in what is being reported as a quiet market.
Trades
1.
VGK
  1. Mikheyev, Ilya
  2. 2022 2nd round pick (TOR)
2.
VAN
  1. Holl, Justin
  2. Steeves, Alex
  3. 2023 1st round pick (TOR)
  4. 2023 3rd round pick (TOR)
3.
TOR
  1. Mayfield, Scott
  2. Varlamov, Semyon ($2,000,000 retained)
NYI
  1. Dermott, Travis
  2. Holmberg, Pontus
  3. Mrázek, Petr
  4. 2022 1st round pick (TOR)
  5. 2024 3rd round pick (TOR)
Retained Salary Transactions
DraftRound 1Round 2Round 3Round 4Round 5Round 6Round 7
2022
Logo of the TOR
2023
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
2024
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
Logo of the TOR
ROSTER SIZESALARY CAPCAP HITOVERAGES TooltipBONUSESCAP SPACE
22$81,500,000$86,588,116$0$400,000-$5,088,116
Left WingCentreRight Wing
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$950,000$950,000
LW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,640,250$11,640,250
C
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$10,903,000$10,903,000
RW
UFA - 4
Logo of the Vegas Golden Knights
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LW, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$11,000,000$11,000,000
C, LW
NMC
UFA - 4
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$6,962,366$6,962,366
RW
UFA - 3
Logo of the Vancouver Canucks
$4,950,000$4,950,000
RW, LW
UFA - 5
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$3,500,000$3,500,000
LW, C, RW
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,250,000$1,250,000
RW, LW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,500,000$1,500,000
C
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$750,000$750,000
C, RW
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$900,000$900,000
RW, LW
NTC
UFA - 2
Left DefenseRight DefenseGoaltender
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD
NMC
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,000,000$5,000,000
LD/RD
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,650,000$1,650,000
G
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$5,625,000$5,625,000
LD
NTC
UFA - 3
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$1,350,000$1,350,000
RD
UFA - 1
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$894,167$894,167
LD
UFA - 1
Logo of the New York Islanders
$1,450,000$1,450,000
RD
UFA - 2
Logo of the New York Islanders
$3,000,000$3,000,000
G
M-NTC
UFA - 2
Logo of the Toronto Maple Leafs
$863,333$863,333 (Performance Bonus$400,000$400K)
RD
RFA - 1

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Mar. 13, 2022 at 11:35 p.m.
#1
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Just making sure you turned salary cap off right?
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Mar. 13, 2022 at 11:52 p.m.
#2
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That is a pathetic offer to the Islanders
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Mar. 13, 2022 at 11:55 p.m.
#3
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Vegas is cap compliant, they dont need to clear anything
Mar. 14, 2022 at 12:05 a.m.
#4
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Canucks decline. If they move Boeser/Garland it’ll be in a move for a good RHD
theleano1 liked this.
Mar. 14, 2022 at 10:23 a.m.
#5
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Quoting: GeneralLandro
Just making sure you turned salary cap off right?


That's where the assumption I stated about Muzzin being out until the playoffs would come in
Mar. 14, 2022 at 10:24 a.m.
#6
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
Vegas is cap compliant, they dont need to clear anything


Until Stone and Martinez need to come back
Mar. 14, 2022 at 10:27 a.m.
#7
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Quoting: joshelkin
That is a pathetic offer to the Islanders


What would be a fair return in your unbiased opinion for a depth D and an aging goaltender?
Mar. 14, 2022 at 10:27 a.m.
#8
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Quoting: warrenbuffetwho
Until Stone and Martinez need to come back


So your logic is Toronto gets to keep their guy on LTIR until playoffs but Vegas can't? Also Martinez can come back without issue
Mar. 14, 2022 at 10:39 a.m.
#9
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Quoting: Ledge_And_Dairy
So your logic is Toronto gets to keep their guy on LTIR until playoffs but Vegas can't? Also Martinez can come back without issue


I mean I guess it's a bit of a biased assumption, however, Vegas is struggling of late and their odds of making the playoff have slipped to 56%. I think they have more of a need to bring back stone than the leafs have a need to bring back Muzzin.
Mar. 14, 2022 at 10:43 a.m.
#10
we miss leo k
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Quoting: warrenbuffetwho
What would be a fair return in your unbiased opinion for a depth D and an aging goaltender?


Sigh, another day, another TML fan who's trying to offer peanuts for good players and then acting like those players aren't worth anything (despite the fact that they're, you know, trading for them.)

Scott Mayfield has played 2/3 of his minutes on the top pair this season. He's kept his head above water there - at even strength, he and Pelech are about even in shots & chances, while being +8 in actual goals for. Mayfield's overall possession numbers have been hurt by the time he's spent with his next most common ES partner, The Corpse of Andy Greene (40% shots/chances, -8 GF in literally 1/6 the ice time he has with Pelech.) Not arguing that Mayfield is a top pair guy by any stretch of the imagination, just saying that calling him a "depth D" is a gross underestimate of his play.

Semyon Varlamov is over 30, sure. He was also a top-5 Vezina finalist last year, and while his numbers are only slightly above average this year(.912 SV%, 2.85 GAA, 2.1 GSAA), they're miles better than what Mrazek is putting up (.884 SV%, 3.48 GAA, -11.0 GSAA), and almost on par with what Jack Campbell was putting up before he got hurt (.914 SV%, 2.65 GAA, 6.5 GSAA in more than double the starts).

Both players are under contract for another season at palatable cap hits (Mayfield's $1.45M is an absolute steal, to be honest) so you also have to factor that value into their potential return. There's also the fact that the Islanders aren't in any sort of cap crunch next season so there's absolutely no reason to move either guy unless you're getting great value for them. Dermott is a 6/7th D that doesn't bring a ton of value, and whatever value he does bring is pretty much negated by tacking Mrazek onto this deal.
Mar. 14, 2022 at 10:50 a.m.
#11
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Quoting: dannibalcorpse
Sigh, another day, another TML fan who's trying to offer peanuts for good players and then acting like those players aren't worth anything (despite the fact that they're, you know, trading for them.)

Scott Mayfield has played 2/3 of his minutes on the top pair this season. He's kept his head above water there - at even strength, he and Pelech are about even in shots & chances, while being +8 in actual goals for. Mayfield's overall possession numbers have been hurt by the time he's spent with his next most common ES partner, The Corpse of Andy Greene (40% shots/chances, -8 GF in literally 1/6 the ice time he has with Pelech.) Not arguing that Mayfield is a top pair guy by any stretch of the imagination, just saying that calling him a "depth D" is a gross underestimate of his play.

Semyon Varlamov is over 30, sure. He was also a top-5 Vezina finalist last year, and while his numbers are only slightly above average this year(.912 SV%, 2.85 GAA, 2.1 GSAA), they're miles better than what Mrazek is putting up (.884 SV%, 3.48 GAA, -11.0 GSAA), and almost on par with what Jack Campbell was putting up before he got hurt (.914 SV%, 2.65 GAA, 6.5 GSAA in more than double the starts).

Both players are under contract for another season at palatable cap hits (Mayfield's $1.45M is an absolute steal, to be honest) so you also have to factor that value into their potential return. There's also the fact that the Islanders aren't in any sort of cap crunch next season so there's absolutely no reason to move either guy unless you're getting great value for them. Dermott is a 6/7th D that doesn't bring a ton of value, and whatever value he does bring is pretty much negated by tacking Mrazek onto this deal.


Depth in the terms that he is not deserving of a top 4 D title/price tag, not that he can hold his own in all situations. Varlamov is 4-12 this season, 33 years old, and is being rumoured to be on the block with Sorokin looking like the future of the franchise. He is not a top goalie in the league so again I am confused as to how you think a 1st, a 3rd, a prospect, a solid Depth D, and a historically strong Goaltender are "peanuts". I can repeat the question again, what is your fair value for these two assets?
Mar. 14, 2022 at 11:10 a.m.
#12
we miss leo k
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Quoting: warrenbuffetwho
Depth in the terms that he is not deserving of a top 4 D title/price tag, not that he can hold his own in all situations. Varlamov is 4-12 this season, 33 years old, and is being rumoured to be on the block with Sorokin looking like the future of the franchise. He is not a top goalie in the league so again I am confused as to how you think a 1st, a 3rd, a prospect, a solid Depth D, and a historically strong Goaltender are "peanuts". I can repeat the question again, what is your fair value for these two assets?


Bringing up a goalie's W/L record is really not a useful metric to assess a goalie's production - the Islanders scored 27 goals in Varly's first 14 starts(3-10-1). Is it necessarily his fault he took all those Ls when his team wasn't even giving him 2 goals a game in support? Or, to flip it, you could say that Mrazek is 10-6-0 this season - why would you even think of trading him for Varlamov??

Varly's numbers also take a hit because he was coming off surgery this offseason and missed the entire preseason and all of October, and was rusty as hell when he came back. Since December, though, he's put up a .922 SV%, which isn't far off from how he did in 35 starts last year (.929 SV%, 2.04 GAA) - again, a season when he was top 5 in Vezina voting. Just because Sorokin has become a better option for the Islanders doesn't mean they have to just dump Varlamov ASAP for whatever they can get for him.

As far as fair value, I think that you have to understand where the Islanders would be coming from. Everything the coach and GM have said recently point to them looking at this season as an aberration - something that's easy to understand, considering the 13 game road trip to start the year, the multiple different stretches of time off because of COVID postponements, and then finishing their season with 50 games in 99 days - so all signs point to the Islanders planning on a return to contention next season. Mayfield & Varlamov's cap hits are affordable for a team that isn't facing a cap crunch (the only "must-sign" contract they have is RFA Noah Dobson) so there's no issue keeping both players around for 2022-23. In fact, they really don't have any RD prospects close to NHL readiness, so Mayfield is a little more valuable to them - if they have to sign someone to replace him, they're either getting a worse player at a similar cap hit, or a similar player at a worse cap hit. I've said that they should put a price tag of a 1st or a 2nd and a strong prospect on both guys because of the lack of a need to trade them.

Holmberg & a 1st would be fine for Varlamov in this deal (I think upgrading a 2nd to a 1st for a year+ of $2M retention is fair). That leaves Mrazek, Dermott, and a 2024 3rd for the Mayfield part of the trade, which is a big fat no. Dermott is a worse player with a cap hit that's actually slightly higher than Mayfield's, so he doesn't bring much value. Mrazek is also negative value to this trade - his numbers are just bad and this is the second straight year he's missed a significant amount of time with injuries (and it's not like these injuries are a new development in his career, either.) He's got two more years at $3.8M, which kind of defeats the idea behind moving Varlamov for the Islanders - he's paid too much to be a backup to Sorokin, and Mrazek is only getting a little bit less per year. Mrazek's contract also carries into 2023-24, which *IS* going to be a cap concern year for the Islanders, as both Mat Barzal and Oliver Wahlstrom are going to need new contracts.
Mar. 14, 2022 at 11:34 a.m.
#13
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Quoting: warrenbuffetwho
I mean I guess it's a bit of a biased assumption, however, Vegas is struggling of late and their odds of making the playoff have slipped to 56%. I think they have more of a need to bring back stone than the leafs have a need to bring back Muzzin.


Bringing back Stone still weakens their roster dramatically. What they need is the rest of their team to be healthy, Lehner most importantly. They likely look to add a more reliable back up before the deadline and that's it.
Mar. 14, 2022 at 3:38 p.m.
#14
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Quoting: warrenbuffetwho
What would be a fair return in your unbiased opinion for a depth D and an aging goaltender?


Mayfield is a fringe top-4 D, an elite PKer, and under control cheaply next year. Varly is also under contract through next season (ignore W/L - Isles are not scoring in front of him. His GAA and SV% are in line with career averages), plus the salary retention? Looking at two 1st's all day long for starters. Mrazek is a pure cap dump who has no value. Holl is less talented than Mayfield. There is a lot wrong with this
 
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