NYI would have to add a lot. Nylander is by far the most valuable/best player in this deal

Swap wahlstrom for a first and add mayfield and i think that would be more palatable

honestly I've seen worse

Islanders would never do this. Nylander only has 2 years left on his deal and id bet Wahlstrom will have a better impact in his age 23-25 seasons than Nylander in his 27-29 season

Varlamov didn't want to waive for the oil, doubt he wants to go to a team with an even bigger cup drought...

Nylander is under contract for his age 25-27 seasons, not 27-29. Either way I think he will be significantly more impactful than Wahlstrom for those years

If the goal is to make it heavily one-sided for the Islanders

That's really a silly thought. Oilers are a bare playoff team and have a horrid travel schedule. Varly might like being # 1 goalie on a contender instead of # 2 on a non playoff team the Isles.
I don't really the trade for the Isles though.

Enjoy the next first round exit

Enjoy not making the playoffs.

this is a no lmao

You’re right, still no shot isles would even do this 1 for 1. Wahlstrom is already the better even strength player despite playing with worse linemates. Higher EVO and EVD, higher RAPM GF/60 and lower xGA/60. I’ll take a cost controlled Wahlstrom on Barzal’s wing for the next 5 years over Nylander for 2.

Lazy, do better

I dont pay for an evolving hockey subscription but that seems to really clash with the EVO WAR/60 and EVD WAR/60 data from Top Down Hockey. This shows Wahlstrom as having a slight edge on defense while Nylander has a massive lead in offense at even strength:



The most recent RAPM Charts I can find (admittedly these have a small sample size for 21-22, maybe you could share the updated ones if you subscribe to evolving hockey) are these which also show Wahlstrom as being better defensively but Nylander being significantly better offensively at even strength:

Nylander is definitely a better offensive play driver than Wahlstrom , but it looks like top down hockey's EVO simply measures play driving, not a players impact on his teams rate of scoring. It's weird that top down hockey has Wahlstrom's EVD as below average, because Both Evolving hockey and Hockey viz has him as above average. This season Wahlstrom has been good at preventing quality shots against, but not as good overall at suppressing shots. Maybe that's why top down hockey's model has him in the 33rd percentile.

I am subscribed to EH, I'm just not sure how to post them on here. What's the easiest way to do it?

If the RAPM chart images are hosted on their website I believe you can right click it and copy the image address, then post it in the image function in capfriendlys comments. Im not sure if EH's paywall will block it from being shared though - if so you could screenshot and upload to a free image hosting website (eg: https://imgbb.com/) and do the same thing with the image address (image quality will be lower this way which is why some images look like trash in my previous comment)

For the image address you can also do it this way:

for example to share the image of capfriendly's logo you can right click the image (logo in the top left of the screen) > click open image in new tab. In the new tab the image should have the url: https://capfriendly-wlb8ng5.stackpathdns.com/assets/images/logo.svg

If you put that url into the image attachment in the comments it should look like this:



The url should be a link to just the image, not a webpage that has the image in it

here we go, thanks.
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Yeah looks like Nylander is rated better offensively and Wahlstrom better defensively

The rating of Wahlstrom's EV Defense could be due to a difference in xG models. Looks like EH has him as slightly above average at xGA/60 but not great in CA/60 - could be because he allows a lot of shots which have low xG values associated with them which increases his CA/60 but not xGA/60 as much

Wahlstrom is rated better offensively because his GF/60 is higher and when you consider the context (his usage, quality of teammates) , it's impressive what Wahlstrom has been able to do offensively. Nylander plays 68% of his even strength ice time with Tavares and 27% with Matthews and his GF/60 is still below average , Wahlstrom plays with Pageau and Parise. I'm not arguing Wahlstrom is the better overall player right now, obviously Nylander has the edge especially because of his impact on the PP, but the early returns on Wahlstrom are good, his goal scoring rate numbers over the past two years are solid and he's only 21 YO. He'll be a 30-35 goal scorer , close to 2 SD GF/60 and xGA/60 in his prime. That's not worth giving up for 2 years of Nylander.

You're right about his defense - it's the same thing with Pulock who's very good defensively because he excels at preventing quality shots, but he allows a lot of shots against because the isles players are told to just keep forwards to the outside

RAPM already adjusts for teammates, opponents, zone starts, etc. Wahlstrom is a good young player but I think youre overrating him a bit here and giving him extra credit for playing with poor linemates when that has already been considered by the model (obviously the model isnt perfect but theres no reason to 'double count' those factors). Not really sure how you project +2 SD's above the avg in GF/60 and xGA/60 based on what hes done so far. I dont think thats something that can be reliably projected based on data we have available

Nylander's xGF/60 is significantly above average while his GF/60 is lagging behind - either the xG model is off or hes having bad luck on offense, but I wouldnt use GF/60 alone to say Wahlstrom is better offensively

Wahlstrom was above 1SD xGA/60 last season and at 21 YO his offensive play driving/increasing his teams rate of scoring has improved a lot - I believe playing with a guy like Barzal who compliments his skillset will result in a high end two way impact in his prime. . It's not unreasonable to project that impact for him in his prime. It's not like he's 24 YO, it is not common for a 21 YO to have the two way impact Wahlstrom is having.

Nylander's GF/60 has been lagging behind for the past 4 seasons. I'm saying this season Wahlstrom is better offensively at even strength. It's not just GF/60 alone, Wahlstrom's EVO is 3.3, Nylanders is 1.1

I will enjoy the top the 10 pick and rooting for a complete team next year.