Devils pass here

Definitely don't see the value here for the devils.

What does it take to get it done

It passes the draft value chart without Johnson and taking on Tatar’s contract

I don't disagree that the value is there, but I also think the Devils would be looking at Jiricek just as hard as the Sabres.

I think NJD trip over themselves to accept.
NJD move back 8 spots and gain a full additional 1st rd pick and a prospect (plus shed themselves of Tatar).

The difference between pick 8 and pick 15 isnt the 28th overall pick lol

Well I would do it, so in the great cap friendly tradition, the other team won't.

Doesn't matter. This is capfriendly. Nobody ever wants quantity over quality, even if it's likely a huge overpay in quantity

Devils end up with 3 1st rounders for 1, just to drop back 8 spots

They could end up with 3 of their future top 4 in one trade by taking any 2 of Mateychuk, Pickering, Korchinski, Mintyukov, Bichsel, Rinzel, or Casey, and adding Johnson. I dont think Jiricek is worth hyper focusing

Why do you guys think the Devils need to shed Tatar lol

I think NJD is going after Forsberg this offseason

Open the last 20 22-23 NJD AGMs and hes traded in at least half of them.
We get the impression NJD is looking to move him no?

Okay. Per the athletic you have pick 15 + 28 = 8 GSVA. pick 7 + 131 = 7.6 GSVA, so on raw value, maybe.

Tatar had a disappointing season but he's not currently blocking anyway and the devils don't have any cap issue. He's likely a bounce-back candidate as his underlings have significantly diverged from his career norms.

Ryan Johnson currently has a 1% chance as being a star (0.75ppg) and a 19% chance at being a 200 gamer according to Bader. So he's basically a nothing prospect.

So it's roughly equal value in a typical draft, sure. But Tom sucks at late firsts so far so Devils fans are going to recoil from this outright. Plus, Jiricek is likely ready sooner and the type of player who makes Tom physically aroused, and that matters to the devils who are trying to exit a rebuild and are thin on RD.

I just don't see it making sense for the Devils in a weaker class. /especially/ when that value could quite easily slip with FLA winning a cup or Vegas squeaking in.

Tatar isn't a bad contract, not for New Jersey anyway. No reason for Devils to dump him.
He's been alright this year, albeit a bit underwhelming yes.

With that said, I'd want Devils to strongly consider this, especially if Tatar is removed from the equation:
- Johnson seems like a good enough prospect
- Gleb Trikozov is probably still available at 15
- That 28th OVA can be batched with one of Devils many expendable middle six wingers (Johnsson, Zacha, Tatar) to target bigger fish like Boeser, Garland or Fiala.

I’m getting a “yeah it’s probably fair but you personally wouldn’t do it” vibes here. Fair enough

He may be. But if he is, its because we brought it a better winger and don't have the room for him in the top 9.

It's AJ that's most likely to be moved, to my chagrin. He's owed less money than his cap hit and that has teams interested, apparently.

It's /close enough/ to fair. I don't do it because I don't think it improves the Devils. Maybe if Will Scouch was our head of scouting.

Just an addendum because Scouch just dropped his list. I personally would trade Jiricek for Firkus and Gauthier, but the reality is that it's probably Jiricek for Geekie and Bischel which I absolutely don't do.

Value is fine I just think New Jersey would rather one of Kemell / Jiricek / Savoie as opposed to say Korchinski + Mesar + Johnson. I don't see much value for them trading down.

If Buffalo really wanted our pick and was willing to move UPL or Levi then that's a different story, NJ needs a long term solution in net.

Value is fair but all depends on who’s available
If one of the top wingers or dmen are available, Devils keep the pick.



Not really. He could get moved but it’s unlikely. Tatars numbers are bit underwhelming this year but that’s because he’s playing a middle six role for most of the season instead of his expected first line role. But Tatar has good underlying numbers and puts in a lot of effort each night

I'm generally a fan of Bader (his Twitter anyway) but one year ago he had Mercer at like 20 something % chance at being an NHLer.
Also, Scott Wheeler (at the Athletic) "projects" Johnson as a 4-5 guy.
Seems to me it's somewhat unfair to label Johnson "basically a nothing prospect".

No, he didn't
D0: star 42% 100 games 64%
D1: star 24% 100 games 62%
D2: Star 32% 100 games 92%

Oh dear.

Should be this tweet.

Dawson Mercer and Alexander Holtz continue to be the two very best of friends, in terms of their production development. Neither really saw much growth in their D1 season and, despite playing in much different leagues, they look basically identical to each other. https://t.co/rWO4uYQYps pic.twitter.com/FH5t7AmWnS

— Byron Bader (@ByronMBader) April 7, 2021

Turns out that misread his star probability as his NHLer probability at the time
Which means that for over a year I've harbored unwarranted doubts of Byron's modelling.
I stand corrected.

The funny part is that They’re still basically identical.

32/96 for Holtz