Don't see a cup here. I like Salo, but this is placing far too much trust in him imo. I think he starts the season as 7th dman, similar to Toews in 18-19. Dont think Wilde will ever be an NHLer. 2nd line is a big yikes outside of Nelson, who I love. There's no playmaker there either, just 2 guys who have shown themselves to be streaky scorers in Beau and Brock and a guy who hasnt shown much of anything outside of a shot in Wahlstrom. The trade for fiala is a bit rich for my blood, I'd rather just give them wahlstrom and a 2 than the only 2 prospects we have

Would Isles fans still do the Varlamov trade if the 2022 2nd is exchanged for 2023 2nd?

Your analysis of Wahlstrom is incorrect. Over the past two seasons Wahlstrom has shown the ability to drive play offensively and he has an above average defensive impact. Trotz really has isles fans thinking Wahlstrom is some liability.

The Fiala trade is too rich for your blood? Holmstrom will be lucky to make the NHL.

I have no idea what Oliver Wahlstrom you have been watching, he skates like he has cinderblocks tied to his ankles and definitely does not drive play. He's a complementary player at best, and does not mesh with the centers this team has. I also dont know any Isles fans beside myself who are low on Wahlstrom, so please point me in the direction of the sensible Isles fans.

Main issue with the Fiala trade is moving Raty. No way no how am I doing that. Holmstrom will for sure be a middle-6 winger in the NHL, not really sure at all why you think he'd be "lucky to make the NHL". Fiala is the 3rd best high end winger available (or 4th if Pastrnak is really out there), so yea moving a blue chipper, a guy who will be an NHLer, and both this team's 1st and 2nd round picks this year is beyond foolish.

I wouldn't move the 1st until the second they're on the clock personally, there is a good chance connor geekie will be there and this is a solid draft regardless. This team NEEDS players in the pipeline.

No offense, but your eye test and analysis means nothing. The numbers don't lie. Here is how Wahlstrom ranks among isles forwards this season.

ixG/60 (individual expected goals per 60 which determines who can create their own dangerous scoring chances) : 2nd

xGF% ( is a stat where to use shot quality to determine which team is expected to score more goals when a certain player is one the ice , AKA driving play ) : 2nd

iCF/60 (shot generation): 1st

Goals per 60 min: 3rd

xGA/60 (defensive impact) : 6th

And then here's his rookie season chart from the 20-21 season. Above average in offensive and defensive impact. Pageau and Barzal's underlying numbers were at their best when Wahlstorm was on their line, so again you are wrong. Some isles fans just believe what they want to believe with Wahlstrom and ignore the facts.
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Holmstrom has less than a 50% of making the NHL, and if he does it will be as a 4th liner. Players with his trajectory usually do not go on to be middle 6 wingers, a few good games in Bridgeport doesn't change his trajectory to a middle 6 winger. I never mentioned the Girard trade, I was just talking about Raty, Holmstorm and a 2nd for FIala.

I wouldn't move the 2022 1st unless its for Fiala. Geekie would be a horrible pick, if you think Wahlstrom's skating is bad (it's not) , Geekies is much worse. He'll likely be a 3C in the NHL, that's not who you want at pick 13. Nazar, Lekeremaki, Lambert, or Yurov would be much better picks

Why do you think Holmstrom has a 50% chance of making the NHL?

Yeah there isn’t a single trade I’d make here. This team isn’t winning a cup. I’m also not sure why isles r giving up an arm and a leg for an injured Samuel Girard.

I’m willing to give Wally time cause I see flashes of a top six scoring winger. Is he a true top line guy? That remains to be seen. I have no interest in moving Raty for Fiala because Fiala doesn’t produce in the playoffs. Also Fiala’s numbers improved immensely once he started playing with Boldy so I’m not even sure how much credit Fiala deserves for his point production.

That’s a no from COL, what is the upside for COL? An AHL dman and 2 draft picks that might turn into players in 3 years? Nope, COL will just play Girard 20 minutes a night, that’s an easy pass.

Players who have very little production in their draft - draft + 2 seasons usually don’t go on to be notable NHLers

He was very young when he started playing in the AHL so idk how that applies here. I’m sure there are some statistics on it, but I tend to think fast forwards who play a 200 foot game can find their way into a middle six role.

Zero interest in Bailey at five million per. There’s better options in free agency

You may be overvaluing Girard, but I get why you feel that way. If I was running the Avs and had to trade him then I would probably want a player that can help me win now too.

Someone will be willing to trade for Bailey, but Dallas doesn’t make any sense as a trade partner given their cap issues. Honestly Bailey could bounce back if the isles upgrade their left side defenseman anyway.

Just one other thing on Bailey. Everyone rips into his production in terms of points, but it’s worth mentioning nobody else on the isles has been able to fill his shoes tbh.

Yea I'm aware Evolving Wild thinks Wahlstrom is good. Jfresh's charts disagree, and Dom at the Athletic is especially low on him. Cherry picking the one model from one season that supports your view wahlstrom isn't exactly an effective argument, especially the one that suggests Nichushkin is a superior player to Draisaitl. "Ignoring the facts" would be exactly what you're doing. Beyond that, YOU didn't make their model, so not sure why you're suggesting its gospel, especially when plenty of others disagree, any sane person's eye test disagrees, Barry Trotz disagrees, and his 13 goals in 73 games this year disagree. Again, I do not doubt that Wahlstrom COULD be a top-6 scoring winger elsewhere, but do not see it here whatsoever. He does not skate anywhere close to good enough to play with Barzal, and putting a pure sniper with a goal-scoring center like Nelson is not a solution either.

Also, I am a big Lambert guy too, Geekie was just the name I used to exemplify the quality of player that will likely be available at 13. I wasn't debating the Girard trade with you anyway, I was just expanding on the point that this offseason would be, uh, poor to put it mildly. Also no way Dobson takes 5.25 for 8 years, you get that cap hit for at most 6 years. Lankinen is definitely not who I'd turn to at backup either.

Holmstrom is good on the PK, but I wouldn’t call him a 200 ft player at even strength. I don’t think he’ll produce enough to be in a middle 6 role, he doesn’t really have any elite traits.

A middle-6 winger is a "notable NHLer" now? I think it's rather silly to suggest he won't make it, and even more ridiculous to suggest if he does it'd be in a 4th line role -- he's a finesse player, not a grinder, which is not at all what the isles look for in 4th liners. 43 points in 68 games on an AHL team that plays a defensive system that is completely devoid of offensive talent is "very little production"?

Jfresh charts do not disagree, can you prove that? Hockey viz is also high on wahlstrom. Most analytics platforms show that Wahlstrom has done well over the past two seasons despite being buried by his coach. . Evolving Hockey is arguably the most accurate measure of a players impact and is one of the better analytics platforms out there, that's not cherry picking. Cherry picking would be you using "13 goals in 73 games" without using context. Wahlstrom ranked 3rd among all islanders forwards in goal per 60 min, he was a more productive goal scorer than 9 isles regulars despite constantly being buried.

Of course Barry Trotz disagrees, he's tried to bury and ruin the careers of plenty of young skilled forwards, including Filip Forsberg, burakovsky, vrana, radulov. He might be the worst coach in the NHL at handling young forwards development.

Dom's cards have to the be the worst representation of a players impact, they do a terrible job at isolating a players impact from his teammates, which is why you see Tyson Barries market value at over 4 mill depsite being a replacement level defenseman accumulating points by play with Mcdavid/Draisaitl.

I think you might be under valuing a 24yr old minute eating dman that plays both side on a team friendly deal for the next half decade. But you are 100% right COL would want immediate help.

Holmstrom is not a finesse player cmon lol - he's a solid passer, but he's much closer to a grinder than a finesse player. Holmstrom just finished his D+3 season at 20 years old. He should be close to a PPG to have middle 6 upside, his D+1 and D+2 seasons were a disaster. It matters what you accomplish in your draft - draft +2 seasons.

I know it's not what the isles look for in 4th liners, but the rest of the league has 4th liners just like Holmstrom. Tbh it wouldn't be a bad idea for the isles to change their philosophy and insert a guy like holmstrom on the 4th line. The isles current 4th line might be the worst in the NHL.

Jfresh rated Wahlstrom as a 26% WAR player this year. Evolving Hockey says that Valeri Nichushkin is better than Leon Draisaitl. I also should clarify (thought I did earlier, maybe I didn't but I don't feel like re-reading) that I don't disagree with the notion Wahlstrom could be a top-6 scoring winger in the NHL, I simply do not see a fit on the NYI. Playing him on the 3rd line when he could be flipped for something that fits our top 6 better is proper asset management, as playing him on the third line is a waste. He doesn't work with Barzal, and he certainly doesn't work with Nelson. If he's still here next year, hopefully he proves me wrong.

I quite literally have no idea what you're talking about re: Barry burying Forsberg, Radulov. Radulov played 12 mins a night as a 20 year old, then 16.5 as a 21 year old. Forsberg was not ready in 13-14, anyone could see that. Vrana averaged the same ice time this year in Detroit he did his entire tenure with Trotz in Washington, so again, a falsehood. Yea he buried burakovsky, sure so 1 for 4. Not a bad day in the majors.

I also hate the Isles current 4th line, but think it'd be better as Bellows-Cizikas-Clutter than thrusting Holmstrom on that line. Regardless, I'm sure we'll see him in the NHL this year so we'll know for sure then. I think he could be a fine 3rd liner, but only time will tell.

To answer the OP's title question: This team better hope they win a Cup this year because they've basically torpedoed all of the youth in the system for win-now trades.

You're banking on a lot of things going right with this lineup. Like, you obviously hope that Fiala & Barzal create some magic and both turn into 80-90 point guys for the next few years.

You're hoping that Wahlstrom turns into the 25 goal guy he profiled as in his draft year with steady, reliable minutes from Lane Lambert.

You're hoping that Kyle Palmierie & Anthony Beauvillier show positive regression from their career-low shooting years and turn into the 20 goal guys you want them to be, while also hoping Brock Nelson carries over some of the magic and "regresses" to 30 goals.

You're hoping that Lane Lambert uses the 4th line more, uh, let's say, judiciously than Barry did. And maybe cycles some guys in and out of those wing spots to keep Martin and Clutterbuck fresher as the year goes on.

You're hoping that Scott Mayfield can help shelter Robin Salo and potentially let him develop into a solid bottom pair guy.

You're hoping that Korn & Greco Ltd. can figure out Kevin Lankinen and get him back to the guy that was putting up .920+ in Liiga as a 20 year old.

That's a lot of hope. I think you're also hoping that Washington & Boston take a step back next season (Backstrom/Wilson & Marchand injuries) so you have a clearer path to the playoffs.