This could work, but I think the first needs to be pushed to 2023. the 7OA is too much to give up to essentially help Vegas out. Brown would be a valuable piece for them.

"When you're in trouble, GMs throw you an anchor, not a life raft."-Jeff Marek

Garrioch has linked Vegas as one of the teams that who will attempt to acquire the 7th overall pick from the Senators. Vegas and Ottawa make good trade partners, because Vegas needs to shed cap and doesn't mind spending money above the cap. Ottawa needs to shed salary and bolster their roster.

When considering term, age, and level of play - the only player I see on their roster who I as a fan would be happy with is Theodore. I doubt he is available. That is why Whitecloud is in the trade instead. Whitecloud is a better fit for what the Senators need, which is a big RHD who can be a stay at home presence next to Chabot. He is cost controlled for many years, and if this trade is done in two parts, one before July 1st, and one after (similar to Bernier to ANA years back) - Vegas can pay Whitecloud's signing bonus. This means Whitecloud will only make 1M this season.

Marchessault offensively is an upgrade on Brown. Brown plays a different role in that he is a defensive matchup guy. The downside to Marchessault is that he is 31 and only signed for 2 more years. So he isn't a long term piece in the top 6. He is good enough that the Senators can sell they went out and got a top 6 forward. The big selling point of Marchessault is that he only makes 3.5M in real money for each of the next two seasons.

The Senators need to shed cash to upgrade their roster. Brown is one of the only players who they can reasonably move out, who doesn't have negative value. I find that a lot of Senators fans overrate his value. I think if he is traded individually at the draft, he might get the Senators a 2nd+B prospect. Look at what Sam Bennett went for. For Vegas, he is a one year rental who can play in their middle 6 group of forwards, and whose cap hit is lower than what he brings.

Ultimately, this trade gets Ottawa a top 6 winger and a top 4 RHD to play with Chabot, without spending any additional money this season since they move out Brown @ 4M, and the second roster spot they are filling would cost at least 750k. Which means they are bringing in 2 players at 4.5M and moving out 1 player and 1 roster spot that would cost 4.75M total. That's a savings of 250k+, and it improves their roster.

Brannstrom would be an option to put in this trade and send to Vegas if there needs to be more value. I don't think he has a lot of value around the league, or internally to Ottawa.

Most Senators fans are going to hate this proposal. But this is a pretty realistic viewpoint of what Dorion might try to do. It improves the Senators roster without spending any additional money. It helps Vegas cut cap while filling a roster spot at below market value. Maybe Ottawa deserves a pick or a prospect from Vegas, who knows - but there is a reason this is a fallback.

The bonus of this trade versus an acquisition like Fiala, is that the lack of money spent might open the Senators up to signing Claude Giroux, if money is an issue there.

The Sens aren't going to put themselves in a position to get Duchene'd again.

I understand most Senators fans won't like the value. The context is supposed to be a last resort trade for Dorion to improve the roster without spending. So he would deal from a position of weakness. You could easily replace 7th overall with a package of different assets like 39th overall+2023 2nd+Brannstrom, but I don't think Vegas does that. At the end of the day, despite only being a #4/5, Whitecloud will have a lot of value to a team who is willing to take on his term. RHD is one of the most difficult positions to fill in the NHL. Marchessault's value is also higher to Ottawa than it would be to any other team, because of his salary structure. You have to factory in the salary considerations for the value here, because Vegas could turn around and trade either of those players to a different team and get assets. They aren't negative value contracts. So Vegas is giving Ottawa players at below market value real money salary, but it isn't like Ottawa is helping Vegas cap wise in a way that nobody else could. The only help Ottawa is giving Vegas is the 500k-1.0M in cap that Brown is underpriced by. That pales into comparison to the cash savings Vegas would enable Ottawa to realize with this trade.

AKA, Allow me to rationalize a bad trade by saying the GM making it must be in a state of desperation?

Tbh, OTT doesnt touch this. Just draft 7OA, its a high value pick and youve got 7 years of control. Trade brown at the deadline if you cant get a cost efficient deal made. This is not something the Sens WOULD or SHOULD do.

It isn't a bad trade. It helps Ottawa tremendously at the expense of the value not being great. That doesn't make it a bad trade.

Ottawa's big bottleneck is going to be salary, because they are a budget team, and they have multiple bad contracts.

Ottawa cannot do what you are suggesting, which is keep the 7th overall pick (or equivalent high value asset), and keep Brown. They need to make some serious additions to the roster, and make the playoffs. Doing the smart thing and building slowly is really easy on paper, but when a team has actual real life stakeholders to satisfy, sometimes they don't have a choice but to make big additions at the expense of making the best possible long term move. First, the Senators need to sell tickets and rebuild the fanbase now that Melnyk is gone. Second, Dorion has to build a playoff team, possibly to keep his job. Third, the Senators are filled with young star players who at the end of the 2023 season will have spent the first 3-6 years of their careers losing on basement teams. What does that do to their development as long term core pieces if they keep losing because Dorion doesn't pull the trigger on upgrading the team?

Thomas Chabot will be 26 years old at the end of the season. If the Senators finish near the bottom again, that will be the 6th straight year of his career wasted. If Dorion doesn't push to get him a solid partner, and add players elsewhere on the team, what will Chabot do? Will he ask for a trade? Or will he be okay sticking around on a budget team who can't find ways to add to their young talent?

A trade like this isn't great, because it means the Senators failed to add a real long term star player like a Fiala, but it is the next best alternative because it helps them make the team better within their strict salary limitations.

OTT declines, neither player are worth a top 10 pick, Marchessault, Jonathan value is only as a rental and team dont trade top 10 picks for rentals

I disagree with you. This is a steal for Ottawa. were trading brown who is most likely gone after this next season and a first. the first is expensive but we already have our young core we need good veterans for stutzle. Marchessault fits what we need he's a top 6 30 goal winger with lots of experience for only 5m. plus we get Zack withecloud who is a good young D who is signed Long term at only 2.7m. This is exactly what Ottawa needs and Idc if it costs us a first round pick we've had our fair share of young first round picks we need veterans for our young guys.

Great trade.

Marchessault only has 2 years on his term, and he is ALREADY 31.

Whitecould is terrific, and someone that I would be interested in but not for 7OA

He is 31 not 35- 36. as soon as someone is 30 he is bad?

your holding to tight to the 7oa I find. ottawa isn't in the same rebuild mode or phase as we were when we drafted stutzle. were trying to get to the playoffs were not tanking and waiting for young players to be nhl ready. and a team full of 19-21 year olds isn't making the playoffs.

You can point out the issues with Marchessault being older, and not being a possible superstar like a Fiala or Debrincat type acquisition, which is fair, but those are the consolations that teams have to make when they have a budget. You have to figure in the cash considerations as part of the value. The same way that Chicago got an inflated return for Brandon Hagel because he was underpaid based on his cap hit, Vegas will expect an inflated return if they are giving Ottawa two players whose real money salaries are much lower than a comparable replacement would cost Ottawa.

We know they have a strict enough budget that it was worth Dorion publicly clarifying that they are still a budget team.

Dorion can't make the best trade, because he cannot afford to. He has to make the bet trade that FITS whatever his budget is this year. On paper, is this a great trade for Ottawa? Maybe not. In the context of it being their fallback and last resort if everything better falls through, it's a great trade.

My point is that he is going to be in his age 32 season, next year, and then were going to be in a contract negotation with an 33yo UFA the summer after (When Sanderson is up for his contract)

For a budget team, this lack of cost control is a sticking point.

If you want to add some vet depth, spend in UFA on short term deals.

He is going to be a ufa any team can sign him so if ottawa doesn't want him back they just don't give him an offer there's no burden.

They likely wouldn't re-sign Marchessault. There is cost control with him, it's just it only lasts two years, which is fine in the context where he is extremely underpaid for those two years. They get a forward that would cost them 5-6 million on the open market for 3.5 per.

It is a win now trade, that is motivated by the Senators being a budget team who have lots of bad money on the books. The value they give up is inflated when compared to the on paper value of the players, but Vegas would be leveraging the salary side of things to help Ottawa. It is similar to how Hagel on paper isn't worth what Tampa gave up, but they paid extra due to his cap hit being so low. (Except with Sens, it's salary, not cap)

Maybe for optics, they could add an Austin Watson/Nolan Patrick swap to the trade so that Dorion can obfuscate the value the Senators are giving up for cash considerations. Patrick is basically done as an NHL player, but it gives Dorion a former big name prospect where he can lie through his teeth and tell the fans they got a top young player who just ran into a (6 year) string of bad luck. It would be close to money and cap in/out, and Vegas likely gets a better season out of Watson as a checking forward on their 4th line than they do out of Patrick. Watson actually has more goals and points than Patrick over the last two seasons, and has remained healthy. Patrick is 24 years old before the start of next season.

Ultimately, it's not a good trade on paper. It's a good trade in the context of a fallback where all the better options are gone or ineligible due to inability to move out bad money to free up room for them, and Dorion needs to add a top 6 F/Chabot Partner without spending much money.