The projections can change prior to the season based on any other moves that are made, but tell me yours as well. Also, I know some fans are going to be angry at mine, but please know I'm not trolling and have real reasons why. I know Leafs, Rangers and Avs fans will come at me the hardest, but chill out and have a discussion.

Atlantic: (Boston and Toronto are the two teams that can go 3rd and 4th in any order)
Florida
Tampa
Boston (Krejci is the big what-if factor here)
Toronto (The Goaltending downgrade is why they drop)
Detroit
Buffalo or Ottawa
Buffalo or Ottawa
Montreal

Metro:
Carolina
Pens or Caps
Pens or Caps
Rangers
Devils
Islanders
Jackets
Flyers

Central: (Hardest division to pick IMO)
Wild
Nashville
Avs (Lost too many pieces)
Blues
Stars
Jets
Hawks
Yotes

Pacific:
Calgary
Kings
Vegas or Oilers
Vegas or Oilers
Kraken
Nucks
Ducks
Sharks

I still see the avs winning the central, they have a decent 1a 1b goaltending tandem, the best defensemen in hockey, and their top 9 is still really solid, I really don't see any threats in the central to them except the wild. Fleury seems somewhat overrated now, and the avs firepower is unmatched in that division.
Kings are a solid team, but I still don't see them finishing that high in the pacific, I'd say 3rd or 4th in the pacific. Calgary is Edmonton's biggest threat in the pacific, hard to tell if they have improved since last year, but imo I don't think they did (its very close). I see Edmonton winning the division and maybe even the conference, one of few teams that kept major pieces and improved areas that needed to be improved. Campbell and skinner should be solid for them.
I think Toronto wins the Atlantic, Boston has way to many question marks at this time with injuries.. Tampa lost Palat and Mcdonagh, two major pieces. Floridas d core is very questionable, and they lost massive pieces in their forward group, I don't find them as good as they were.
The metro seems about right. Could see the NYR finishing 2nd, mix up between them and the pens.

Atlantic Division
TOR
TAMPA
FLORIDA
OTTOWA - WILDCARD
BOSTON - MISS
DETROIT - MISS
BUFFALO - MISS
MONTREAL - MISS

METRO DIVISION
CAR
NYR
PIT
CAPS - WILDCARD
NJD - MISS
NYI - MISS
CBJ - MISS
PHILLY - MISS

PACIFIC DIVISON
EDM
LA
VAN
CGY - WILDCARD
VEGAS - MISS
SEATTLE - MISS
ANAHEIM - MISS
SJS - MISS

CENTRAL DIVISON
AVS
WILD
NSH
DALLAS- WILDCARD
ST. LOUIS - MISS
WPG - MISS
AZ - MISS
CHIRAQ - MISS

@gary_gobbler

The Avs lost Burakovsky, Nichushkin, Kadri, Kubel and Kuemper and I have respectfully disagree on their goaltending. It's pretty mediocre.

TOR's goaltending is also a step down from what they had and I can't see them finishing that high.

OTT is another teams with mediocre goaltending and pretty bad defense. They have dmen who can put up numbers, but are bad defensively. I think it's another year before they make a real push at the playoffs.

Boston is definitely a question mark. How will Bergeron be? How will Krejci Be? I think this is their last playoff run for a while.

The the thing about the Rangers is they're basically starting with almost the same exactly lineup as they started the regular season with last year which has major issues scoring 5v5. Kreider will most likely regress hard and by that, even scoring 30ish goals is a hard regression from 52, so unless they can continue to run a top PP, socring will be a major issue. They'll likely make it, but barring any major moves, I see them on the bubble.

avs still have nichushkin, their goaltending is mediocre, but it wasn't that unreal last year either. Francouz was solid against Edmonton, better than kuemper imo (eye injury could have played a role in that). NYR is really bad 5v5, but they also have a top 2 goalie in the league, I could see their pp firing at the same rate and if igor plays like he did I think they'll be fine. I have no doubts about boston, but if the first few weeks go terrible I see Ottawa scooping them. Its not like tor had the most outstanding tendys last year either, they thrive in the regular season.

Edit: this was also done prior to the kadri signing, they will finish above van, and maybe LA

Yeah, my bad on Nichushkin, but they still lost so much. IMO the main x-factor them is their youth. If some of their young players on ELC's can have an impact that changes the game for them. I think LAK takes a major leap forward this year and I think NSH is a team that can potentially make some noise. NSH quietly had a nice off-season.

the avs still have the best dcore in the league, and two top 5 defenseman, which should take a massive load off the goaltending tandem. Not nearly as good as last year, but still a solid team. Nashville had a solid offseason, it'll be interesting to see them and Colorado in the playoffs again.

Once again people forget

Leafs finished 4th in the NHL with under 900 goaltending for 4 months. Doubt they drop to 4th in the Atlantic lul

Could easily see them finish the same or even third as they pretty much proved they didnt need elite or average goaltending to win games and Murray had a 0.920 SV in 18 games with the Sens and Samsonov has so much potential to rebound its scary

Also Boston will be missing most of its Dcore and Marchand for the start of the year

I love how leafs fans take things so personally...

1) Just because you finished as high as you did with mediocre goaltending last year doesn't mean that's sustainable. Look at the playoffs.

2) Leafs goaltending got worse this off-season.

Leafs goaltending didnt change at all lul

Campbell had 1 good month same as Murray. Meanwhile Samsonov is better than Mrazek who just cant stay healthy these days. So saying it got worse is not correct in the slightest

People are putting to much into one good month of Campbell lul as if we apply that same Logic Murray is the same.

LOL Ok, buddy.

I see Murray and Campbell both having good bounce back seasons, new teams, different markets. Murray seems like he thrives under pressure, like in pitts cup run so I doubt he struggles in the leaf's market. Campbell has less pressure on him and a fresh start, both gonna do well this year imo

Murray has done the opposite of thrive under pressure since leaving the Pens.

wasn't much pressure on him in Ottawa, like at all.

Tons of pressure on him. He had to prove he was not a fluke and was beyond bad. He was a fluke. He's Cam Ward.

he played unbelievable for you guys in the cup runs, 1.7gaa in the one run is crazy.. his fathers passing seemed to affect him a ton.

I mean, he made history as a Penguin. He won 2 cups as a rookie. Because of the timing of when he first came he was considered a rookie for both. He was a flash in the pan though and yeah, his father's death really hurt him and he's just never seemed to come back around. The Pens were smart to move on and I know TOR fans want to be hopeful and be positive, but this was a terrible move on their part.

Obviously you can pretty much say ANY player can find their game, so for his sake I hope he does, but these were weak moves on behalf of the Leafs when there were better options.

He'll do better than he did, I agree with what you're saying, it'll either be unreal for the leafs or it completely falls apart and Dubas puts himself in a horrible position. I'm very interested on how it will turn out, that franchise would be a scary place to play just with the pressure on players, especially now..

It was a bad move no matter which way you cut it IMO. Even if it works out, it was a bad move and I'll explain what I mean, because if I'm Leafs fan I'd feel bleak about Dubas' decision-making ability on building a true contender. Kuemper was available and he didn't pull the trigger. He had the space. Husso was available for trade and he didn't pull the trigger.

There were simply better options for the similar money BEFORE he made the Murray deal and he CHOSE to pursue Murray. That doesn't tell me his decision-making is sound. Maybe I'm being over-dramatic, so I apologize, but if the Murray move blows up in his face and this team continues to lose in the first round, you have to wonder if Matthews will want to stay if he doesn't believe he's on a team that is being built to win, so to me this becomes a ripple effect.

I agree, especially about the first round exits and Matthews. That's why I look at the Campbell signing in Edmonton as not that bad although the term isn't great. There was a pretty thin goalie market given the amount of teams in need of a starter. Oilers NEEDED an upgrade and they got it with Campbell, and they have a solid 1a 1b with skinner in there too, but I guess according to leaf fans that's the worse signing ever lmao.

I have some bold takes but my reasoning on the controversial ones
NYR: Every team got better they arguably got worst and they're coming off a year where most of the team had Career years you can't expect that again.
WSH: They already have injury issues. Wilson will be a big loss and I worry about the left side of their defense. Gustafson on the 3rd pair will hurt a lot will turnover the puck a lot.
CBJ: This is more based on they got better and they have something special about their team they always overachieve and they have tons of Talent.
NJD: If they stay healthy I think their set of skaters is at the top of the division. I expect a lot from Jack Hughes and Hamilton and think their Tandem will do the job until the playoffs.
Vegas: So Overrated and already have massive injuries.
Wild. I think they just miss they need more experience in their forward core and Fleury is signed up for more than he wanted. He wanted a Tandem not to be a starter.

Atlantic Division
Toronto
Tampa
Ottawa
Florida- WILDCARD
Detroit - MISS
Boston - MISS
BUFFALO - MISS
MONTREAL - MISS

METRO DIVISION
CAR
Pit
NJD
CBJ- WILDCARD
NYR- MISS
WSH- MISS
NYI- MISS
PHILLY - MISS

PACIFIC DIVISON
EDM
LA
CGY
VAN- WILDCARD
Seattle- MISS
Vegas- MISS
ANAHEIM - MISS
SJS - MISS

CENTRAL DIVISON
AVS
ST. LOUIS
Dallas
NSH- WILDCARD
Wild - MISS
WPG - MISS
ARZ - MISS
Chicago- MISS

I Would say Samsonov and Matt Murray is at least just as good as Campbell and Mrazek. The thing with Murray really just depends on his health assuming he's healthy I think it's completely fair to say they can be first. Samsonov still has potential IMO and I think he's in front of a much better D Core.

I'm not really worried about any team goaltending because I think goaltending is only important in the playoffs. Tandems get you to the playoffs. Star Goalies win in the Playoffs. Therefore I think the AVs will still have a great year and not regress too much. That Defense is solid and some other unexpected players could step up like Nichuskin and Burakovky did last year.

disagree with toronto being that low and florida being that high. the guys the leafs brought in are definite what ifs but the team is steadily in the top 3 even with mediocre goaltending. florida is wholly worse than last year and have no assets to improve.

would be shocked if the avalanche drop to third in their division even with their tandem. would also say that the oilers are 100% in the top 3 if not fighting out for the division with the flames.

TOR went from mediocre goaltending to bad goaltending.

already posted about this so I'm just going to repost what I said re: murray, campbell

Take a look Campbell's splits compared to Murray's splits. Campbell was playing at Vezina level for one month of the season and it really proped up his numbers, especially during the middle of the season where he was constantly under .900, yet the Leafs kept winning. Murray in contrast had a very solid Jan-Feb, where he somehow put up 0.943 in month with four losses, but overall his numbers were more consistent.

The issue with both is injuries and confidence. Campbell can be really outstanding but he has a limited sample size and there a lot of questions about his future performances, but he's a safer bet than Koskinen or Smith when you're trying to outscore your opponent. Murray has playoff pedigree and can give the Leafs that above .900 they need to win certain games, but his reputation has taken a massive fall since his Pittsburgh run and he's entering a very scrutinizing market, albeit with a stronger defense than what he was provided in Ottawa.

My opinion is that Murray is younger, on a shorter term for slightly less, and has a better possible celling than Campbell. Giving the edge to him at least until the season starts.

EDIT: Samsonov looks about on par with what Mrazek provided.

Lots of what-ifs and could-bes. Not what Dubas should have been doing if he was serious.

The other things that people keep missing is that just because TOR was able to find success with mediocre goaltending last season doesn't mean they can do it again with arguably worse goaltending. It's just not sustainable. Is it possible? Sure, but there's likely going to be regression which is why I put them at either third of fourth. I'm not saying they miss, but you can't realistically expect them from taking a step down goaltending-wise and actually move UP in the standings.

They don't have a sustainable recipe.