Not sure how happy Sharks fans will be but that's pretty much the most I'd be okay giving up for Meier.

Pass, Meier isn’t a devil for that

i feel that holtz would need to be a piece involved in the trade and then either the 23 or 24 1st on top of that.

debrincat got less

He'll get more money, probably at least 8.5. He's got a style of play that GMs prefer to Fiala and he's got the leverage of his QO.

yea sorry but the pieces that you say aren’t touchable would be required. nothing you guys are offering here would excite the sharks unless you go 2 1sts plus Boqvist and Mukhamadullin.
and again I see you guys balking at that as well.
we will see if there is ever a deal that fits both clubs but if the GM for either team are similar to the ACGM on here this is never going to happen.

so what? Chicago is in full sell mode and did the deal at the draft for the picks at that draft and had a time crunch on their hands and gave him away. plus he is 5’7” and those guys are never as valuable as a 6’2” power forward.
even the Fiala deal is off because MIN didn’t have the cap space to resign him.
the Tkatchuk deal is a better reference and yes Meier is a step below Tkatchuk but Holtz ceiling is below what Huberdeau is now plus they got a Severnson style D and a 1st.
so Holtz and a 1st is a fair comparison to that deal.

well they say the key is finding a deal that we both equally hate and that's the magic middle ground, so how do we make you feel more uncomfortable? Just getting Gritsyuk and the 2023 1st makes me really uncomfortable unless NJ really bombs this year and I don't think they will.

I think we all agree it'd be sick to see Meier play on Hischier's wing. But MN was in a different situation than Meier is with SJ, so there's not as much external forcing the trade. Same when comparing to Debrincat, because I don't see SJ blowing it up like CHI... yet.

Not even close for Meier, He'll get at least $8,500,000 if not closer to $9,000,000 per same as Larkin.

everyone knows chicago got robbed though, hagel got 2 1sts. the market is weird for stars.

also debrincat is 5'7 and the nhl is still highly stuck in that era where they believe size is everything, so given the fact meier is a 6'2 200lb strong skating powerforward his value will most likely be higher.

chicago was also getting close to a chychrun/eichel situation where the player is or is getting ready to force them self out and teams clearly noticed that and considering chicago has poor management rather then delaying waiting for a better offer chicago sold early just due to have a high draft pick in return

Meier just isn't the right target for the Devils. They'd be better off keeping the youth and pursuing UFAs like Pastrnak this year or Matthews next year

So let’s pick out one of the worst comps possible and one of the undersell trades of the century? Nice try

Did Larkin sign an extension?

Larkin is also the better player and plays more premium position.

No, But there's still plenty of time for Larkin and his extension, Even Yzerman said that it doesn't have to get done now. Still have about 9 1/2 months to get a deal done.

Comps are very useful. Every year, fans of teams selling high end wingers expect huge returns.
Every year, they actual trades come in less than expected.
(In 2019-20, we were one of those teams with Taylor Hall)

DeBrincat = top-10 pick, 2nd , 3rd
Fiala = Faber, mid-1st
Buchnevich = Blais, 2nd
Reinhart = Levi, late 1st
Pacioretty = Tatar, Suzuki, 2nd (2018 trade)
Arvidsson = 2nd, 3rd
Stone = Brännström, 2nd
JT Miller = 1st, 3rd
Perron = Pääjärvi, 2nd, 4th

None of these guys were traded for top-25 prospect (or a top rookie). Brock Faber probably comes close as someone in 25-50 range. Nick Suzuki at the time was also in same range (trade was before his great 2019 playoff run). Peyton Krebs (in the Eichel deal) was a borderline top-25 prospect.

If someone can come up with a comp for a Holtz or Mercer plus 1st trade, I'm all ears. But I don't think there is much precedent for such a return.

Using The Hockey News's annual prospect ranking from last 5 years, of the 157 guys that have been listed among the top-50, there have only been five that have been traded as a prospect along with a 1st round pick:

Peyton Krebs (#23 in 2022) traded for Jack Eichel
Conor Timmins (#28 in 2018) traded for Darcy Kuemper
Josh Norris (#39 in 2020) traded for Eric Karlsson
Urho Vaakanainen (#39 in 2019) traded for Hampus Lindholm
Nick Merkely (#49 in 2018) traded for Taylor Hall

Others -- Raddysh, Hajek, Guhle and Grundstrom were all between 51-100 in 2018 and were dealt with 1st picks. Addison rose to #60 in 2022 after he was dealt. All were in-season deals. Brannstrom, Suzuki, Kapanen, Fox, Bokk were all listed in top-50 at one time, but traded without a 1st. Barron, Katchouk, Madden, Joseph, Kuokkanen were all in top-100 and dealt without 1sts. Most were in-season deals.

Cannot imagine he doesn't extend.

And literally all of those returns were awful returns other than Fiala to LA. LA got a potential top line player for a mid 1st and prospect who didn’t even have a contract. Probably the Reinhardt one was good as well. All the others are just BAD trades.

Suzuki was close to a top 25 prospect at the time so in your argument you have a comp.
Hotz Tatar and a 2nd for Meier then.
Mercer was the 55th ranked prospect going into last year so if you wana keep Holtz sharks are fine with Mercer as a downgrade.

Tkachuck got a top 25 NHL winger, a top 50 NHL D and a 1st!
so lets go Jesper Brett, Severson and a 1st.
you can argue Meier is a step below Tkachuck but we all can argue Brett is a huge set below Huberdeau and Severson is a slight step below Weegar.

The Hockey News, Corey Pronman, Craig Button all had Suzuki in 25-50 range at time. ... Both Steve Kournianos and NHL.com had him outside their top-50 lists at time.
The Hockey News, Scott Wheeler, Craig Button, Hockey Writers all have Holtz inside top-20.

Mercer was just #46 on Corey Pronman's top U23 players, which included young NHL'ers. (William Eklund was #50, Bordeleau was #111, Merkley was #117, Havelid was #146, Coe was #148)

Tkachuk got two rentals, together will probably make $18 million+ next year. From a team that is already over the cap. Not an apples-to-apples comparison at all.
I didn't use 2022 Pacioretty trade or 2022 Bjorkstrand trades as comps - which we were obviously cap moves.
Use a comp that involves prospects and picks as return.

Can call them bad...but that is just the market for wingers.
You can only sell for your highest bid.
Those were the highest bids.

Hence, that is what the market will likely bare.

Just ignoring Tkachuk?

Yes. Also ignoring Bjorkstrand and Pacioretty from this past summer too.

yes i agree with some parts of your arguments but the time they were traded only debricant/ fiala/ pax were producing at meier's skill level.

debricant was moved for way less then his actually value because chicago is rebuilding and their management team is terrible
lminnesota couldn't resign fiala and had to take best offer available
montreal was rebuilding and had to sell on Pax + he was already becoming injury prone.

none of those trade reflect the situation san jose is in they don't need to move meier and so far he hasn't said he wants to leave. i fully expect meier to get an eichel like return if SJ moves him which is pretty similiar in value to holtz and a 12-18OA pick

Point production isn't always everything. But I think the broader comps to use would look something like this. Have to also factor in age/contract.

Career PPG (thru trade year)

Miller 0.54
Perron 0.58
Toffoli 0.60
Lucic 0.60
Bjorkstrand 0.61
Arvidsson 0.62
Buchnevich 0.65
Reinhart 0.65
Meier 0.66
Hoffman 0.67
Fiala 0.68
Pacioretty 0.72
Duchene 0.76
DeBrincat 0.83
Stone 0.85
Vanek 0.87
Hall 0.91
Spezza 1.00


3-year PPG

Perron 0.64
Miller 0.67
Arvidsson 0.71
Buchnevich 0.71
Lucic 0.71
Toffoli 0.73
Bjorkstrand 0.74
Pacioretty 0.74
Hoffman 0.75
Reinhart 0.76
Duchene 0.76
Meier 0.78
DeBrincat 0.88
Vanek 0.89
Fiala 0.91
Stone 0.95
Spezza 0.97
Hall 1.12

Here were the trade returns

Miller = 1st, 3rd
Perron = Pääjärvi, 2nd, 4th
Toffoli = Pitlick, Heineman, 1st, 4th, 5th
Lucic = Jones, Miller, 1st
Bjorkstrand = 3rd, 4th
Arvidsson = 2nd, 3rd
Buchnevich = Blais, 2nd
Reinhart = Levi, 1st
Hoffman = 2nd, 4th, 5th
Fiala = Faber, 1st
Pacioretty = Suzuki, Tatar, 2nd
Duchene = Abramov, Davidsson, 1st
DeBrincat = 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Stone = Lindberg, Brännström, 2nd
Vanek = Moulson, 1st, 2nd
Hall = Bahl, Merkley, Schnarr, 1st, 3rd
Spezza = Chiasson, Guptill, Paul, 2nd