Kylington isn't worth that

Lundkvist just brought a 1st + 4th and hasn’t done anything in the NHL

Once a team pays a 1st and a 2nd for Bear, then I’ll believe that Kylington gets that. Until then, not even close. As for Valimaki, you won’t be getting a 2nd rounder. If you are lucky a team might overpay with a 3rd.

Kylington > Bear
Valimaki = Bear = 2nd Round Pick*

*Either a mid-to-late 2nd or very early 3rd Round Pick

No ones giving a 1st + 2nd for Kylington

What's he worth then if y'all know the answer? Please do tell, don't hold back or keep the secret to yourselves

Christian Dvorak returned a 1st + 2nd... Nils Lundkvist has done nothing in the NHL and just returned a 1st + a 4th...

Young Top-4 D-Men with just a $2.5mil/yr Cap Hit are Pretty Valuable in a very tight Cap World...

I’d say a 2nd. Lundkvist was overpaid but also has higher potential than Kylington.

Kylington has actually showed & confirmed his NHL potential, whereas we don't really know yet for sure with Lundkvist

Comparing their stats when they were the same age would leave me to believe they're equally skilled & talented and therefore likely have the same ceilings

My guy, what is this? No way San Jose is giving up two picks like that for a at best 4th defenseman. Way too much. Maybe from like a Colorado or a Tampa where those picks are 30 and 60. Not San Jose where those could be 10 and 40.

His value is certainly higher than 1 2nd round pick and Nils potential isn't as high as you are making it out to be. While I doubt San Jose would pay a 1st for him I imagine a contender would gladly do it considering his contract and impact

yes we don't know how Lundkvist will turn out but that's the same for every prospect. You would trade Kylington for Bedard, right? We don't really know yet for sure how he will turn out either. Obviously I don't think Lundkvist will be as good as Bedard but it's the same point. It's very possible that Lundkvist will play on the 2nd pair this year and he's only 22 years old.

I said that I think Dallas paid too much for him and I think many people agree. I don't think a contender would pay a 1st for a bottom 4 defenseman and they definitely wouldn't add a 2nd or a good prospect. He can also walk in two years as well.

The bolded is just full of bad takes. Nobody calls it "bottom 4 defenseman" because that literally includes half of the "top 4 defensemen." Kylington is a 2nd pairing defenseman on at least half the teams in the league. He is on a super team friendly contract and dirt cheap. 1 year ago Tampa literally traded a 1st and 2 mid picks for 2 months of David Savard who is certainly not a 1st pair defenseman. Arguing him "walking in 2 years" as well is a stupid argument because him having 2 years of term is what makes his deal fantastic right now for contenders.

Bear >>>> Valimaki, Kylington isn't actually an awful comparison for Bear. Kylington is better, but not by miles.

I'm calling him a bottom 4 defenseman because about half the teams of Calgary I see that are projecting their lineup next season on CF have him on the 2nd pair and the other half have him on the 3rd pair. I never see him on the top pair. If he's only projected to be on the 2nd or 3rd pair that makes him a bottom 4 defenseman.

You said "he is on a super team friendly contract and dirt cheap" but also say that "him having 2 years of term is what makes his deal fantastic right now for contenders." So you're saying he's on a very cheap, good deal but that what makes his deal fantastic is that he doesn't have much term left. Wouldn't you want his term to be longer if he was "dirt cheap?" How is that a good thing if his term is low?

But that's just flawed thinking. Calgary has a top 3 d-core in the entire league. Do you find any Colorado ACGM's that place Girard on the 1st pair (ones where lines aren't made don't count because CF automatically puts the higher cap hit further up in the depth). No, inly on the 2nd or 3rd pair. That doesn't make him a "bottom 4 defenseman" though.

Your obsession with term really shows how little you know about contending teams. Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow both got great returns because they were more than just rentals. Cup windows for any team generally last ~3 years. If Kylington continues to play at the same level he did last year he will be strictly underpaid for his impact. Having that impact per cost with more than 1 year of term is highly valuable to a team in their contending window.

2021-22 Kylington 9G + 22A = 31PTS in 73GP = 0.42PPG +34 vs. Bear 5G + 9A = 14PTS in 58GP = 0.24PPG +1
Kylington >>> Bear

Career Valimaki 3G + 16A = 19PTS in 82GP = 0.20PPG -4 vs. Bear 13G + 34A = 47PTS in 190GP = 0.25PPG -15
Valimaki is just 23 with a $1.55mil Cap Hit vs. Bear 25 and $2.20mil
Valimaki = Bear

Bear also has defensive stats way better than Valimaki. Bear xGA/60 1.72, Valimkai xGA/60 -1.94. dxG Bear +1.25, Valimkai -1.45.

https://evolving-hockey.com/ (Source)

Valimaki <<< Bear. Bear is far closer to Kylington. You're using points (Which is not what D men are paid for) to try and justify it and in reality, that's not even a good indicator.

(Which is not what D men are paid for) What a comical statement. Tell Ramn Josi, Cale Makar, Victor Hedman, Adam Fox, Kris Letang, John Klingberg and Tyson Barrie, etc. they're not being paid to score

(Career) Bear CF%: 48.8 oiGF: 2.7 oiGA/60: 3.1 vs. Valimaki CF%: 49.9 oiGF: 2.3 oiGA/60: 3.0
(Career) Kylington CF%: 52.0 oiGF: 3.0 oiGA/60 2.1 >>> Bear = Valimaki

Source: https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/bearet01.html

Makar, Hedman, Fox, and Letang are all fantastic defensively first. It's why Josi, Klingberg, Barrie aren't considered good D men. What a comical statement to deny it. You really are proving why your valuation of these players is incorrect. Defensemen are paid to defend first. It's great being an offensive defenseman, but if you are not good defensively, you're still a net negative. The best example of this is Roman Josi, who put up 100 points and was a net neutral. Stop it. What a rash and uneducated point to try and argue.

You're still using Corsi and base stats to try and argue this.

dxG/60 Bear +2.1. Kylington +1.75. Valimkai -1.35
xWAR Bear +2.65 Kylington +2.53 Valimaki -2.08
xGAR Bear +1.47 Kylington +1.86 Valimkai -3.29

Kylingon = Bear >>>> Valimaki
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/

Girard is on the 2nd pair of the vast majority of Colorado cf teams and that's what I would call him: a 2nd pair defenseman. Kylington is 50/50 on the 2nd and 3rd pair. Also in the few instances that Girard is on the 3rd pair, it's always Byram who is ahead and Girard>Byram for now. They're putting Byram on the 2nd for developmental purposes.

lol how am I obsessed with term? a few posts above you said he's on a very cheap deal but it's good there's not much term left. That's very contradictory.

You see that's where the thinking is flawed, regardless of Girard is currently better than Byram all 4 of Weegar, Hanifin, Andersson, and Tanev are better than Girard. So if you hypothetically traded Girard for Kylington then Girard would be for the most part on the 3rd pair.

Regardless this is not about comparing 1 elite d-core to another. This is about Kylington being a top 4 defensman on more than half the teams in the league. Making him at least a bona-fide 2nd pairing defenseman.

Where did I say "there's not too much term left." 2 years of term on a dirt cheap contract is loads of time, especially for a team in the middle of their contention window. Maybe it's harder for you to see the value in 2 years of term as your team is entering a rebuild.

saying he's "at least a bona-fide 2nd pairing defenseman" is crazy. He's played only 1 full season in the NHL and was paired with Tanev to cover for his lack of defense. We'll see how good he really is this season on the 3rd pair. I definitely think he can become a middle-pairing defenseman but he's not there yet.

You said "him having 2 years of term is what makes his deal fantastic." A 2-year contract is short, that's why it's called a bridge deal.

Tanev is a good partner and mentor for everyone, that's not a surprise. However Kylington had always been a high potential prospect. He was projected by a lot of scouts to go in the 1st round and was even seen as a top 5 pick at one point. During the off time of the covid shortened season he did a LOT of off ice conditioning to work on his biggest weakness, lower body strength. Far too often in previous seasons he was seen as an offensively gifted prospect that lacked defensive ability due to being pushed off the puck too easily. I would say he proved quite well last year that he is at minimum a #4 caliber player. His problem in Calgary is that Hanifin, Andersson, and Weegar are all top 30 defensemen in the league and Tanev is the best pure shutdown defenseman in the league. So being ranked say ~50th pushes him down to 3rd pair since Calgary just has so much depth. It's really no different to how Sergachev played 3rd pair in Tampa the last few seasons or Pesce did in 2018.

You really don't get this whole "contenders need cheap effective players" thing. How often does a team have a non-ELC top 4 defenseman/top 6 player for less than 3M? Pretty much only at the deadline as a rental. Now factor in that you can have that deal for more than 2 months. That's what makes the term of 2 years valuable. Similarly I think Jacob Middleton is on an excellent value deal as well though I consider him a tier below Kylington

yeah to be honest I haven't watched Kylington play much but just looking at his player card: https://twitter.com/JFreshHockey/status/1554586050286305284
solid offense but needs to improve defensively to take game to the next level

Yeah I agree Kylington is on a pretty decent contract, never disagreed with that