Then you include Newhook in the Horvat trade which has been mentioned countless times. Just because you don't want to give up Newhook in an ideal fashion doesnt mean it doesnt make sense. Canucks also arent trading Horvat to the Avs for little to nothing because of their cap situation. That's their business not Vancouver's so dont push the narrative that Horvat is worth less because of the Avs cap, that makes little to no sense. They willl create a market and if Colorado cant buy then that's their prerogative. You cant will your philosophy on other teams just cause it doesnt suit your own narrative thats not how trade markets function

I’d imagine it would be Byram>Horvat

Did you look at the trade? I did include Newhook. The Avs can barely have a cap compliant roster. They need players like Newhook and Byram to actually be under the cap.

I’m not saying anything about Horvat’s value. Just saying that the Avs can’t afford to re-sign him without making serious sacrifices elsewhere in the roster.

You have the cap at 83.5 though, if it goes up 4m, there's a chance at keeping Byram, but they won't have the benefit of knowing that before hand. They should add O'Reilly instead if the cost of addition is cheaper, and then they could sign him to 5mx8 maybe. Should allow to to keep Byram now and Toews in the following year.

If they sign Horvat, they likely lose Toews, even if they keep Byram.

J Toews is another potential option but I rather not see him wear 16 or 91.

Isn’t the cap projected to go up $1M next year and the bigger jump in 2024-2025?

Even if you add in an extra $3M, I still don’t think you have enough to re-sign Byram without moving out another top 4 D. And you probably also need to upgrade the depth. The bottom 6 and bottom pairing here are really really weak. I also have Meyers, Kaut, and Ranta each taking pay cuts to league minimum contracts here. I don’t think any of those guys are necessarily even ready to be full time NHLers.

The easier answer is to bridge Newhook, extend Byram, let JTC and Rodrigues walk, sign EJ or another vet on a cheap deal to play PK, and see what goal scoring wingers are still looking for a home after the first few days of free agency (ie next year’s Rodrigues).

It’s not as fun as a big splashy sign and trade, but probably the more prudent move forward.

The most recent projection is 4m minimum, it must be because of the ad-revenue. I'm guessing the amount in escrow gets paid and it goes up the 4m+. Will be interesting to see what they do, I do think they should keep Newhook if they still think he just needs some time and then get someone who is 3-5m that can temporarily be the 2C, it might also be time for them to move on from Girard, to resign Byram so that they can fill out the depth a bit better.

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-salary-cap-could-increase-by-at-least-4-million-in-2023-24/c-336522332

A few obvious problems here:

1) avs would almost definitely trade girard before trading byram
2) byram could be bridged around $4 million (Dobson comp) so that would carve out an extra million
3) Horvat isn’t getting 8x8. In his dreams lol. 7x7 is more likely
4) that cap is probably going up $4 million, not $1 million.

By my math, you could easily come up with an extra $5 million in cap space if you’re more realistic with you signings, trades, and cap movement

No they shouldn’t. What they should do is what they are doing, give Newhook a chance to acclimate and get healthy. The wingers Bednar has said he wants to play with Newhook, Landeskog & Nichushkin aren’t even playing. The Avs need more cost controlled assets like Newhook, Byram other prospects in the line ups not old expensive guys that require assets to acquire and they can’t afford. The most successful teams develop those guys they don’t trade them away.

Ooooof.
Newhook is in the offer, take another look.

Aside from the obvious (Byram isn't getting traded, cap is increasing more than you've shown, Horvat doesnt get that overpay etc.), Toews is the obvious trade piece here (DURING THE OFFSEASON).

His value has never been higher and he's gunna price himself out of town. It's the best time to move him. Your top 4 moving forward becomes Byram-Makar and Girard Manson (all with cost certainty).

As for the trade, I don't pay that asking price. VAN is free to charge whatever they want for Horvat, but his value is only what someone is willing to pay for him.

COLs window is creeping to a close with everyone's pay days coming up. And considering they've given up a ton of picks and young players (Jost, Barron, Helleson) it's time they change gears and start prioritizing drafting and developing and keeping these younger cheaper pieces to fill out the roster. You just can't continue to YOLO all the picks and prospects every year without inevitably crashing, HARD.

Doesn't Colorado have other guys that they could trade away for ROR? I do agree that they should keep Newhook and be patient. They will probably just add a guy like Rodrigues at 2-3.5m if Newhook is not ready. If they take this path, it will be much easier for them to keep this team together.

They could opt to allow him the time by adding someone in the 4-5m range (there will be drawbacks) that would eventually be a solid 3C once Newhook becomes the 2C. ROR could get a 49m-64m deal in FA but I'm assuming here if he's willing to take a discount and sign a 40m deal, the cost of acquisition must be reasonable too. There's nothing wrong with adding old players who are useful though, just need to be mindful not to give what will cause them grief in hindsight. Their 2024 1st OV pick should be off the table unless they are getting a 2023 2nd out of it.

I wish Canucks fans would understand that they want Byram/Newhook more than we want Horvat. It's like telling someone with a shellfish allergy "if you want fresh lobster, you'll have to pay $200 for it"

I generally agree with you, but a few responses:
1. Yeah Girard probably moves before Byram. But Byram probably gets a similar contract. In the description I assume that one of Byram/Girard/Toews gets moved. Byram is just the easiest for this exercise as an RFA
2. I probably would expect higher, but point taken.
3. I’ve seen people throw around the $8M here. If you’re Horvat and you’re about to hit UFA, might as well get paid. The Kadri contract seems reasonable as well. Less concerned about term given that this is just looking at next year.
4. I pulled the $1M from here:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolschram/2022/09/27/report--nhl-salary-cap-projected-to-make-4-million-jump-for-2024-25-season/ and I thought $4M was for 2024-2025.

Even so, I think the point still stands. You need a perfect storm to get that extra $5 ($3M from increased cap, $1M from trading Girard and squeezing Byram on a bridge, $1M for getting Horvat at a discount). And with that in mind, maybe you can re-sign an EJ replacement and have room for a 3rd line forward to play PK (Compher replacement). You still have a terrible bottom 6 and MacDermid as a 6th defenseman.

No that’s the problem. COL has 3 high end non roster pieces (Olausson, Behrens and 23 1st), they aren’t moving those for rentals. People forget last year they traded a 1st, 2 2nds, a 3rd, a 5th, and THREE top defensive prospects. They didn’t pick till the 6th rd in the 22 draft and only have 1 pick (the first) in the first 4 rounds of the 23 draft. Guys on the edge of getting to be regulars in the NHL, Kaut, Maltsev and Bowers don’t have a ton of value. Maybe Meyers and Foudy have some but COL blew the pipeline up kinda last year. They have to trust their young players now and ride this out to truly see what they have

Girard being the fall guy has been obvious since last year. The disconnect here is obvious. Simply a luxury Colorado cant afford.

If you read elsewhere in the post, you would see that I commented on this already. Two times in one thread from you lol.

One of Girard/Byram/Toews needs to go to have any shot at fitting Horvat under the cap.

Alternatively, they don’t make a trade for a rental that ties their hands in the future. Trust youth to fill out the roster.

Except COL made the conscious decision to re-sign Manson so they would have an elite d-corp. All the CFer’s seem to forget that, forget that Girard is cost controlled for half a decade is 24, that COL has never once shopped him, everybody saying Girard is the piece that gets moved doesn’t pay attention to that, or that he’s 4 years younger than Toews signed 3 years longer. People that look at the cap situation look what non elite player has the highest cap hit and proclaims he’s the guy getting moved are just being lazy. The COL front office wants a high end defense, one because they are smart enough to realize the d-corp is the true 2nd line offensively speaking, two they know what it’s like to run out a dcorp made up of 2 pretty good guys and 4 guys who are awful. I think it’s not obvious at all that Girard is a guy who gets moved.

The term flogging a dead horse comes to mind when it comes to both VAN & MTL fans on here.