No

When does it take place? is there an extension? There are too many variables to judge on its own.

From NJD view...

Before deadline, with team-friendly extension...yes, maybe
Before deadline, with cap-busting extension...no, nowhere close
Before deadline, without extension...no, too much
After season, before draft, with extension...probably a little less, and fewer pieces, similar to Fiala deal
After season, before draft, without extension, arbitration elected...no, way too much
After season, before draft, without extension, no arbitration elected...no, way, way too much
After season, after draft, with extension...probably a little less, like Reinhart deal (and with 2024 pick)
After season, after draft, without extension, arbitration elected...no, talking Buchnevich return at that point
After season, after draft, without extension, no arbitration elected, qualifying offer make...no, may not be net positive...(comp Max Pacioretty return)
After season, after draft, without extension, no arbitration elected, no qualifying offer make...no, would be mid-round pick alone for UFA rights

Well first off, I want to make sure you know that Knyzhov is LTIR'd likely the entire season.

So assuming you're aware of that and factoring him in as a piece for next year, Id say:
Take out Clarke and the 5th Rounder and add a 2024 second with the condition it upgrades to a 2024 1st if the Devils reach the 2023 Stanley cup final with Timo playing in half the games in the playoffs AND Knyzhov is eligible to play in 60 games in the 2023-24 season. Sharks would also add a 2023 third.

Reasoning is Sharks have a ton of 18-22 year old forwards in their system so unless it's a Holtz level forward prospect they'd look to get defense prospects. I know the condition of a first sounds like a high price but the odds that the Devils make the finals AND Knyzhov playing 60+ games is very unlikely, but if it happens then the Devils have gotten a lot of value out of the assets they're getting. Sharks add a 2023 third given the Devils don't have one in this upcoming draft, leveling out the value a bit more.

If I'm the Sharks GM I'd probably be looking at three different options for two D-prospects. In order of preference: 1. Casey & Walsh (unlikely), 2. Casey & Bahl (still unlikely), 3. Mukhamadullin & Walsh (I think is fair), 4. Mukhamadullin & Bahl.

Reasoning for Walsh over Bahl is the Sharks system is thin on the Right side and he would be a massive add to the Cuda.

It's TDL hence the 1 mil retention plus this is 22/23 season.
from the sharks there is the 23 1st we want but a late 1st and b/c level prospects wont be enough to give up Meier.
sharks would need a top prospect and the 1st. otherwise it's just more logical to keep him and resign him.

Knyzhov is expected back before the TDL, he is skating with the team but is still 4-8 weeks away.
rest i would agree with your reasoning.

Oh hell yeah. I hadn't heard an update in ages. Out of curiosity, where do you typically find injury timelines for players who aren't big names? I'm trying to figure out how long Havelid is still going to be out but can't find anything.

Sharks aren't moving their top forward for a bucket of B and C prospects and a late first. They would just as soon re-sign him than accept this trade. It's Holtz and a 1st as a baseline considering Holtz hasn't looked so great it will a bit more. Sharks can easily just re-sign Timo.

I'm so tired of the Meier to NJ trades. But Sharks fans talking about how Holtz is struggling while also refusing to budge on him being in the trade will always be amusing.

sheng peng gives updates on sharks players but AHL and prospects i’m at a loss. Still trying to get an update on Laroque as well.

he is still a valuable trade chip but his play has been sub par that 1st gets later and later and Meier keeps playing well so the closer we get to the deadline the more trading Holtz and the 23 1st for Meier should appeal to NJD and the less it should appeal to SJS IMO

You kinda just echoed what I said... If Holtz is struggling so bad, then why are Sharks fans still so hung up on him? The only reason Sharks fans view every other prospect not named Holtz, Nemec and Hughes as "B and C level" is because they're comparing them to Holtz, not other team's prospects.

That last statement is spot on. To everybody else our only “A” prospects are Holtz, Hughes and Nemec when in reality those are just our A+ prospects. We have Casey and Muk who I’d say are A prospects and guys like Gritsyuk and Foote who are actually B type prospects

to be fair I see Holtz as a B/B+ prospect like Eklund. A is reserved for guys like Hughs Fantilli and Bedard types.
Holtz offers a chance to increase value by Pairing him with Eklund. and the 1st will be in the 23-30 range and this it’s value is slightly diminished. Nemec would be the ideal chip to trade for but we know he isn’t available and with Mercer success Holtz seems to be a piece you guys could trade while not hurting your future. and gives us the DW we badly need

It's whatever. I don't see Meier to NJ happening mainly because the cap situation next season is still so up in the air. Just the only Sharks-made ACGMs I see on here involving Meier are either 1st+Holtz or the odd 1st+Coronato trades, the latter of which gets shut down immediately. The only reason the Holtz+1st keep happening is because Devsfan25 is so thirsty for the next big shiny thing to add.

What justifies that sort of haul?

Look at what similar wingers have been getting (Fiala, Buchnevich, Reinhart, etc). My guess is that Fiala return is probably the goal if he agrees to extend elsewhere.

The terminology “A prospect” …”B prospect”…is a scouting term that originates from Central Scouting’s annual preliminary draft watch lists (put out at the beginning of cycle before they actually rank players). “A” essentially means they are expected to be a 1st rounder, “B” is a 2nd or 3rd rounder, “C” is 4th-7th. In other words, calling a player an “A” prospect means that they are in the top-30 of their age cohort. (And “B+” usually doesn’t mean they are in between A and B, it indicates directionality, as in B prospect who is trending toward A. The in between guys are often called A/B).

Holtz and Eklund are both “A” prospects.

Meier is a different player than Fiala, Meier is a power forward and drives play better where Fiala is more a finisher and needs support.
to me the deal would have to be an increase from what Fiala returned more in line with Debrincat.
that was the 7th the 39th and a 3rd this year.
and Holtz value is close to the 7th OA in this draft I would think.
and your 1st in 23 will be late 1st in the 24-28 range to 10 spots before Ottawa's 2nd was last year, add the 3rd in and your close to that value/
so by using Debrincat trade in this scenario, Meier for Holtz and 23 1st for Meier is kinda close in value.
now most analysis claimed Chicago got fleeced by Ottawa.
https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nhl/news/alex-debrincat-trade-grades-senators-blackhawks/prc9zogcb7v7eruyhdoarnxo
giving the Senators an A for the trade and Chicago a D+
with this being a better return than what Chicago got i feel it falls within fair value and both sides could see a B rating for the trade.
Biggest question would have to be is Meier willing to sign long term in New Jersey or just the 1 year QO. If he signs long term both teams win this deal! If not its a bad move for NJD.

yes your right, I should use that Tier system then.
Holtz and Eklund a solid tier 2 guys, Bedard and Fantilli are tier 1 guys.

Sounds right to me.

Just within Devils system, I see Luke Hughes and Nemec as a tier above Holtz. And Holtz above Muk, Grits, etc

Something like….

T1: Hughes, Nemec
T2: Holtz
T3: Mukhamadullin, Gritsyuk, Walsh, Casey, Schmid
T4: Foote, Filmon, Okhotiuk, Stillman, McCarthy, Daws

And will try Sharks…

T1: [sharks 2023 1st]
T2: Eklund
T3: Bordeleau, Lund
T4: Bystedt, Merkley
T5: Havelid, Coe, Robins, Fisher, Gaudreau

Tier 1 would be Hughs, Nemec is high tier 2 but not quite a tier 1, but obviously a solid step above Holtz who is a solid tier 2 guy.
Most NHL teams do not have a tier 1 player as those types rarely sit in the AHL or minors for long.
Gushin and Robins both are tier 3 guys FYI and Havelid and Coe I would put in tier 4
with Weisblatt added to tier 5