As a Leafs fan, here are my observations

A: Detroit is going to re-sign him
B: That's not enough
C: That a tough resign with Tavares still on the books for another few seasons
D: Doubt he gets traded

Yzerman has no interest in smallish forwards, Hirvonen at 5'9" is a no go. Yzerman will want NHL ready players now not 3-4 years down the road for Larkin. Larkin to the Laffs isn't happening for such a lowball offer. We can trade him elsewhere for a far better return than this.

Another observation that you can add maybe is that Marner is a great playmaker, who looked good with Larkin for a day, at an All-Star game which was played 3v3.

Perhaps, their apparent chemistry isn't anything special.

Marner needs to play with Matthews. But I guess there 20 minutes of fun during the all-star game can make us think.

Knies

Think I'd rather Meier

Not sure what you mean by "need", but in terms of chemistry, Matthews and Marner are great.

Give Marner any (LH) goal scorer though, and he'll find a way to get the puck to them. So, in context of a Larkin trade, I think it's an overreaction from some of the Leafs fanbase. As you pointed out acquiring Larkin will need more, and I wouldn't be surprised if the ask would be higher than that of Meier, since they would rather resign him.

Marner and Meier would look just as good as Marner and Larkin.

Larkin has a full NTC so he (theoretically) can only go somewhere he approves. That reduces Wing’s options if it comes to a trade @ deadline, which most (myself included) think is unlikely

As a Leaf fan, I certainly don't to give up that much for Larkin or any UFA. And I don't think any other team does either.